Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 09/12
Market can't follow through on the bounce attempt - now get ready for CPI!
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES/ COULD NOT follow through on yesterday’s bounce attempt as we got rejected at the 4534$ & swingH_AVWAP area.
We’re going into CPI tomorrow with a rejection I didn’t want to see…
If we react well to CPI, I’ll watch a reclaim of these levels as bullish.
4534$
Current pullback swingH_AVWAP
50dma
If we follow through on that rejection post-CPI, then the market could really rollover here, and a retest of 4468$ retest is possible.
CAUTION
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
Breadth remains FLAT for the last three days as we head into CPI tomorrow morning.
We remain below all kma’s, which could lead to 2 scenarios post-CPI:
Strong bounce, confirmed by a strong breadth thrust (>400)
That breadth weakness will materialize into a rollover scenario, with an acceleration in weakness.
Tomorrow's reaction will be pivotal.
PTMM is at a RED market signal (🟥)
No new LONG exposure
Protect b/e
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Small bounce…now at 39%
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Still at 32%
Another inside Friday’s range day. I’ll be watching that channel developing tomorrow on CPI reaction. If we break that DTL & recent swingH pivot, then we might see volatility come back to the market.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Bounced again at recent base level.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Building tight handle right at base area... It is not great.
Great action here, and no red flag from Credit Spreads.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Bounce today, but we remain in no man’s land…
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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