Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/09
Market still in consolidation, and we'll have have CPI/PPI inflation data.
Good evening!
Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Until we break that 14858$ structure in NQ, don't lean bearish too quickly.
We are in a solid uptrend, everything was extended, and we need time to digest and consolidate. I am looking at this range/base for a bullish continuation or turning defensive/bearish.
We are now 5.7% above the 50dma. We are slowly leaving the extended condition.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
Price closed UP (+1.16%) and still above all kma's
Breadth was POSITIVE (+413) but faded hard EOD after a record breadth reading intraday.
U/D volume at 0.78 (divergence)
MSCI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma. (not enough to reclaim)
MOMENTUM was strong (12), and the 5-day ratio is back positive.
NNH at +9 & PTHL back to an UPTREND
BOTTOMLINE:
PT MODEL = GREEN market signal (🟩) on PULLBACK (🟥)
After two days of sharp decline, the market tried to bounce on Friday with a record breadth print intraday. The selling started by EOD, and that bounce faded hard. Will that fade spill into next week or not? This is the big question right now.
Internals
50d & structure area rejection. We are still above the 10/21dma, but it was an excellent first step.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
We remain above all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (weekly)
Bond yields continue to put pressure on the market.
Keep rejecting that level. We remain below all kma’s.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Working on a base just above the 21dma. Look for continuation above 31443$.
SECTORS ANALYSIS
Pullback week for $FFTY & small-cap following a strong thrust 2w ago.
Mid-cap growth led the week but was still negative.
We are still seeing that lagging from the large caps.
Themes & Subsectors
Blockchain Technology BLOK stands out as a clear recent leader.
Lithium & Battery LIT & Rare Earth/Strategic Metals REMX are showing good short-term RS with weekly chart breaking out.
Regional Banks KBWR & Banks KBWB with potential WB in progress.
LEADERS (top10)
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors: Reclaimed the 21dma on Friday but faded and couldn't hold the gains. I want to see a 151.71$ and ideally a 154.07$ reclaim to confirm a continuation higher.
IGV Software: Bounced from the 21dma, but faded Friday too. Still looking like healthy consolidation.
ITB Home Builders: Pullback in progress.
XLY Consumer discretionary: Holding the recent base area.
FOCUS & LEADERS LIST
PLTR - PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. (BO21PB) - Alert: 15.8, SL: 15.06
Sector & Theme: Leading sector (Technology XLK , and leading theme Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ )
Price Trend & Structure: 10/30wma aligned & uptrend
Extension: 5xATR from 50dma. (extended ISH, but leader name that might go without a 10wma touch)
Prior uptrend: 135% prior uptrend
Base / Consolidation: 4th week of consolidation.
Daily Structure: Higher lows and surfing the 10dma as we couldn’t make another low this week.
Accumulation / Volume profile: 1.92 U/D ratio.
SMCI - SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC. (BO21PB) - Alert: 262.99, SL: 245.1
Sector & Theme: Leading sector (Technology XLK , and still #1 theme right now, Semiconductors PSI)
Price Trend & Structure: 10/30wma uptrend & aligned.
Extension: 5.11xATR from 50dma. Extended-ish, but the name proved to get an extension in the 13/14xATR recently.
Prior uptrend: 190% prior uptrend.
Base / Consolidation: Four weeks of digestion as the 10wma catches up.
Daily Structure: Higher lows above the 10dma as we build the right side of the base.
Accumulation / Volume profile: 1.63 U/D ratio Controlled volume on the pullback.
LTHM - Champion Electric Metals Inc. (BO21PB) - Alert: 27.75, SL: 26.28
Sector & Theme: Hot theme - LIT lithium
Price Trend & Structure: 10/30wma uptrend & aligned, but 30wma just curling up.
Extension: 2.65xATR from 50dma. Not extended
Prior uptrend: 45% prior uptrend.
Base / Consolidation: Still in larger ATH multi-year base, but LIT is breaking out.
Daily Structure: Higher lows at the 21dma + retest of the channel DTL.
Accumulation / Volume profile: 1.49 U/D ratio
COHR - Coherent Corp. (BO10PB) - Alert: 51.38, SL: 47.94
Sector & Theme: Leading sector (Technology XLK)
Price Trend & Structure: 10wma just crossed the 30wma, but aligned.
Extension: 5.24xATR from 50dma.
Prior uptrend: 125% prior uptrend.
Base / Consolidation: Pullback to the 10dma and build a low cheat area.
Daily Structure: Higher lows at the 10dma
Accumulation / Volume profile: 1.81 U/D ratio
SYM - SYMBOTIC INC. (BO21PB) - Alert: 43.68, SL: 38.31
Forming a cheat area just below the 21dma
Prior 125% run from the 50dma
Higher low structure
Volume dry-up in the handle
1.42 U/D
1.83xATR from 50d (not extended)
Impressive fundamentals estimates
9% ADR, can move very fast (adjust position accordingly)
AVDX - Avidxchange Holdings Inc (BO21PB) - Alert: 10.72, SL: 10.03
Forming a handle right around the 21dma.
Prior 62% run from the last earnings report
Higher low structure right at the 21dma
Volume dry-up in the handle + solid RS in the last 2d
2.02 U/D (high!)
3.34 x ATR from 50d (not extended)
OK fundamentals, nothing stellar
3.45% ATR, can move very fast
APP - APPLOVIN CORPORATION (BO10PB) - Alert: 26.62, SL: 25.24
Forming a handle at a new high (showing a lot of strength)
Prior 180% run from the lows and decisive action following the last ER.
Higher low structure right at the 10dma
Volume dry-up in the handle (6 last days)
1.56 U/D
3.76 x ATR from 50d (not extended)
Good EPS estimates, but sales OK
4.09% ATR
DDOG - DATADOG, INC. (WBPB) - Alert: 100.58, SL: 95.31
Forming a handle near recent highs and right at Livermore level (100$)
Prior 65% run from the last ER
Higher low structure just above the 21dma
Volume dry-up in the handle (5 last days)
2.4 U/D (!!!)
2.31 x ATR from 50d (not extended)
Good fundamentals estimates, but not great actuals.
3.87% ATR
MRVL - MARVELL TECHNOLOGY, INC (BO21PB) - Alert: 61.4, SL: 57.43
Forming a handle around the 21dma pullback
Prior 72% run from the last ER
Higher low structure just above the 21dma
Volume dry-up in the handle (5 last days)
1.39 U/D
3.49 x ATR from 50d (not extended)
OK fundamentals
3.83% ATR
UPST - Upstart Holdings Inc (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 38.62, SL: 34.38
Forming a handle right below the recent base area. (lot of strength)
Prior 225% run from the last earnings report (PEG)
Higher low structure right at the 21dma
Volume dry-up in the handle (5 last days)
1.75 U/D
4.69 x ATR from 50d (ok for the stock's character)
Impressive fundamentals estimates
8.28% ATR, can move very fast
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
SDGR,VRT,SMCI,MARA,PLTR,MDB,EXTR,IMGN,NVDA,ELF,CELH,TSLA,PANW,COHR,PSTG,EXAS,MRVL,TGTX,SHOP,IOT,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RCL,ELF,EXAS,PANW,WNC,NCLH,ALGM,DT,ARRY,CCL,EXTR,SDGR,ZS,HTGC,WYNN,SEDG,TMDX,MTB,ATVI,EQC,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
SMCI,MARA,CCL,RIOT,SDGR,VRT,APP,PLTR,NCLH,SGH,NVTS,RILY,RCL,MDB,IMGN,TSLA,DKNG,XP,COHR,TGTX,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
MARA,COIN,CCL,RIOT,LCID,MSTR,SDGR,COHR,NCLH,JBLU,DAL,AAL,SMTC,PLUG,EXTR,RDFN,TRUP,APP,RILY,CHTR,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
IMGN,SMCI,XP,VRT,MARA,CCL,PLTR,RILY,MDB,SDGR,RIOT,CELH,NCLH,SGH,RCL,APP,EXPI,TGTX,GH,NVDA,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
IMGN,SMCI,MARA,RIOT,SDGR,NVDA,PLTR,APP,NVTS,MDB,CCL,TSLA,TGTX,RDFN,DKNG,XP,IOT,META,VRT,MSTR,
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS & GAMEPLAN
We just finished a short & low-volume holiday week. Now, we’ll have the accurate picture with volume coming back in and the always anticipated CPI/PPI economic reports on Wednesday & Thursday.
We saw exciting action last Friday morning but faded the move EOD. We’ll have to see this week if the market is due for longer and/or deeper consolidation after an impressive recent move or if we can find our footing and make a continuation breakout.
The intermediate trend is still up and well-established, so we must assume that we are working on the recent excess and seeing consolidation that will resume higher. I am a trend trader, so until that trend is broken, that’s the side I’ll play.
GAME PLAN:
With the fade and recent highs rejection on Friday, I closed some more exposure and decided to play defensive going into the weekend. All will depend on my current positions and the PTMM PULLBACK signal, as I don’t want to be aggressive before the CPI report on Wed.
I will follow a more restrictive progressive exposure until Wednesday or wait for Wednesday to come if my positions are not gaining traction early in the week.
Economic news/events:
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
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