Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 04/20
Market still in range... but more & more warning signs adding.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Sentiment/Positioning:
Price Action Analysis:
NQ started weak again as we retested the 21dma and DTL on the futures market. But right at the open, we quickly found support and rallied all morning until we almost faded that move entirely this afternoon.
This remains true tonight, and today’s action adds even more weight to it:
I usually like to see this sideways action as we build pressure for the next move higher, but right now, I feel we’re playing this game for too long. Too tight for too long?
Each weak day adds more confirmation to the “market is tired” thesis.
I think the market is in a precarious position, but until we confirm the break of the range & base area, an upside continuation can still happen.
We need to push above the 13230$ ish pivot & then the 13331$ level to confirm continuation… until then, I will be more & more cautious each time we can’t push above that level.
NQ_F is above the 21dma - uptrend.
On the upside (bullish scenario),
The 13331$ previous swing high pivot will be the level to watch to confirm an upside continuation.
The 13247$ level can even be used to anticipate a long entry before the 13311$ base level.
On the downside (bearish scenario),
12949$ level & 21dma has to hold.
The 13082$ can even be used to anticipate a short entry before the 12949$ level. (We closed right at that level and lacked confirmation to carry overnight)
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Sentiment/Positioning:
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Sentiment/Positioning:
LIQUID LEADERS (PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS)
We did not break the uptrend yet, but I see many red flags on critical rejection levels in almost all mega-caps. Tomorrow will be KEY.
MSFT -Daily
Gapped down, then tried to rally but got rejected at the 289.27$ base level and 10dma. This is a red flag to me.
AAPL -Daily
Gapped down, then was not able to reclaim yesterday’s high. We’re still seeing an inside day ish, but that 2nd failed breakout is a red flag to me.
NVDA - Daily
Bearish outside day on increasing volume at the 275.89$ base level. This is a red flag to me.
META - Daily
Gapped down, then was unable to reclaim and got rejected at the 216.24$ base level & 10dma to close below yesterday’s open (outside). This is a red flag for me.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Market Breadth & Internals
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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