Good evening folks,
Well, that feeling was good last night. I think we might have found an intermediate bottom, but JPoww will decide tomorrow at Jackson Hole :)
✌️🛡️
MARKET REVIEW
The ideal bull scenario of last night played out today, this is really positive action we saw today in the market.
Let’s see why:
We closed above the mini-channel DTL
We closed above 5/10dma
We closed above support area 1951$ pivot
Bonus: higher volume than yesterday
Now tomorrow morning will be an important piece of information as a lot of traders seems to wait & anticipate the Jackson Hole retreat, at which Jerome Powell (FED chairman) will speak and give some direction on the FED's next steps.
This is at 10:00 EST tomorrow morning, so I will certainly make sure to be in front of the screens in case he misplaced a word or two, or is overly hawkish in his comments.
What are the levels I’m watching on RUSSEL tomorrow?
On the upside, I really want to see follow-through action on today’s breakout. Then we’re pretty much good until the 2008$ level, which is 2.2% above.
On the downside, we want to hold the 5/10dma that we reclaimed today and also close above the 1951$ pivot.
MARKET BREADTH
Big breadth today to confirm the breakout on the indices. Back to 52w NNH on NYSE,big adv/decl #’s and big breadth thrust.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma) - We bounced from the 66.60$ level and closed above all kma’s. Super positive.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma) - BIG reversal on the ST breadth. We bounced from the support area with a big move-up. (+27%) We get an internal confirmation of that breakout.
VIX - Follow-through of yesterday big confluence rejection. We closed down back below all kma’s. We are approaching that 21.33$ level that might act as support. we’ll see, but the VIX seems to anticipate a continuation tomorrow.
DXY (US $) - US$ was not able to reject the base top resistance area and is now supported by the 5dma. We’ll need to see a break here for a sustained move on the indices.
US10Y (US 10Y bond yield) - 10Y reversal at an important resistance level. I want to see follow-through tomorrow, but this is very good for growth stocks if we reverse here.
US2Y (US 2Y bond yield) - 2Y Not quite the same reversal as the 10Y. Still holding above the 5dma.
IEI/HYG (Credit Spread) - Another down day and now back below the resistance area. I like what I see here, no selloff is being priced in.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin) - Still flagging
CL_F (Crude Oil) - Big reversal at the 95.05$ prior swing high pivot just below the 50dma. This could be the BORS setup I was looking for at that resistance area.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
(SMH) Semis - BIG day for the semi’s sector, especially after mixed results from NVDA yday. We reclaimed that 232.14$ pivot and also closed back above all kma’s. We also get confirmation from leading names like ON 0.00%↑ & PLAB 0.00%↑
(TAN) Solar - Very important follow-through on yesterday's reversal for the solar sector today. We reclaimed the 86.01$ important pivot and closed above the mini-channel DTL. All names in that sector are setting up for potential breakout tomorrow too. ENPH 0.00%↑ SPWR 0.00%↑ RUN 0.00%↑
(XBI) Biotech - Biotech lagging here as we are entering into potential resistance from the prior consolidation. We want to stay above the 21dma at least tomorrow and reclaim today’s high to confirm continuation higher.
Let’s look at our 6 other sectors that just broke out of stage 1 bases. AND THIS IS REALLY GETTING INTERESTING…
(CIBR) Cybersecurity - 21dma reversal and closed right below important pivot we’ll have to reclaim.
(FDN) Internet - Stage 1 base reversal on volume - good!
(IGV) Software - Stage 1 base reversal - good!
(XME) Metals & Mining - breakout and new high - good!
(XRT) Retail - Stage 1 base reversal - good!
(XLF) Financial - Follow through on yesterday 21dma reversal
(XLE) Energy - continuing higher above the 5dma. Might need a pause, especially after CL_F reversal.
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS:
I am getting pretty strong signals that we might have turned from the recent market pullback. Price action on the indices, internal breadth reversal at key areas, sectors action around their stage 1 base retest, and more importantly the leading stocks action and the proliferation of setups.
That being said, we still have to wait for what Jerome Powell will say tomorrow as it can really switch the market momentum 180deg.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
STEM,SWAV,AEHR,SIGA,VLD,CPRX,TH,CELH,MRSN,BBIO,NFE,SPWR,CEIX,PRVA,EURN,CSIQ,AHT,SMCI,GTLB,INSW,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RES,AMR,HCC,DK,MRO,ERF,DVAX,MGM,DRH,TELL,LBRT,BHF,ENLC,SWAV,LC,TRGP,SLDP,WTI,MPC,FANG,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
MRSN,CPRX,SIGA,STEM,SWAV,AEHR,SPWR,NFE,PLUG,CSIQ,VLD,CELH,SMCI,WOLF,PRVA,TH,CEIX,BBIO,RUN,BFLY,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
YPF,WTI,MRSN,FUBO,AZUL,STEM,VLD,BTU,TELL,SWAV,BFLY,DEN,LTHM,WFRD,CPRX,CLAR,WOLF,PLUG,BRY,CORZ,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
MRSN,TH,SIGA,AEHR,AGEN,VLD,CPRX,STEM,RXRX,BFLY,AHT,BEAM,CELH,PRVA,SWAV,WOLF,PLUG,HIMS,ENPH,BBIO,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
TH,SIGA,CEIX,HDSN,STNG,NFE,MRSN,CRK,PBF,CVI,EQT,ENPH,CPRX,ARLP,DCPH,CELH,HRB,STKL,STEM,SWAV,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Tomorrow’s game plan:
I am fully invested right now and will be in a position management focus in the next few days. If a position doesn’t act well, shows a red flag, or hit a Stop Loss, then I will be looking to open a new position from the FL.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
ENPH 0.00%↑ 🎖️
One of the leading stocks of the past few weeks following its PEG. I started building my position today on the 10dma reclaim after confirming the support area reversal. I would be looking to add to this position on either the DTL or the 305.88$ pivot breakout.
UPDATE: After a retest of the 10dma and filling the gap, we closed strong and just below our DTL & entry pivot. Alert still in play.
Alert - DTL + 305.88$
TH 0.00%↑ 🎖️
A name that shake me out yesterday on that nasty reversal, but acted very good today with a reversal and reclaim of the 14.08$ pivot. A breakout of the 14.86$ pivot would certainly be the last chance to get in before this leave the station. Still a leading stock IMO.
UPDATE: We were not able to push higher today again and we are now seeing a THIRD inside day. We’ll need to break one side or the other, I’ll say up but we’ll see tomorrow!
Alert - 14.86$
Super tight action out of the larger wedge breakout 2 weeks ago. We retested the DTL & recent structure to form a WBPB setup. A breakout of 15.60$ pivot would confirm potential continuation higher.
Alert - 15.60$
AEHR 0.00%↑ 🎖️
Leading stock that put a good old fashion shakeout yesterday to throw me out of my position. It was not able to break below the UTL & 10dma today and almost reclaim that top pivot. We are just below the 18.29$ that was the original entry pivot, but if we gap up tomorrow, 18.77$ would also be a good entry to play the base breakout.
Alert - 18.29$ + 18.77$
GPRE 0.00%↑ 🎖️
A new name in the Focuslist. We came back to retest the base breakout area in a very orderly manner with a good volume profile over 2 weeks. We broke the mini-channel DTL today on increasing volume to confirm the reversal, not I want to use the recent swing high 39.25$ to really confirm the BORL setup
Alert - 39.25$
The first consolidation out of the multi-month base breakout we had last month. We consolidated on low volume in the past week or so and found support at the 10dma today. A break of the DTL would confirm the setup.
Alert - DTL
A name that was in the focuslist prior to the recent big breakout (I missed it…argh). But we are now setting up for one of my classic setups, the BORS. We confirmed the base breakout yesterday, but came back to the support level today and seem to found support in the last trading hour. To see the entry DTL, you’ll have to take a look at an intraday chart (65M) as this is really a quick retest before a possible continuation higher.
Alert - 65 MINUTES TIMEFRAME DTL (INTRADAY)
🎖️ = Alex’s highest conviction setups
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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