Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 03/27
Market follow-through today, while the recent mega-caps leaders take a pause. + NASI turned up!
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ_F was not able to follow through on Friday’s bounce and closed back below 12801$ base level, but still inside Friday’s range.
We could see a retest of the 12735$ level or the 10dma level if we open weak and follow-through on today’s reversal. I would look for quick support & spring action.
NQ_F is still above ALL KMA’s - uptrend.
On the upside (bullish scenario),
We have to reclaim FED’s high pivot at 13082$ to confirm continuation.
On the downside (bearish scenario),
As long as we stay above 12578$ base level, we must assume it’s healthy pullback action.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
ES & RTY followed through on Friday’s bounce and closed positive, unlike NQ not being able to.
Today's bounce was led by all beaten down & oversold sectors of the last few weeks. $XOP $XLE $XLF $XME $XBI $PEJ $XRT, etc. Let's not get too excited yet.
But, we also saw NYSI & NASI (ST_SIGNAL) turn positive today, which is the first constructive step I wanted to see for this market to improve. This is still very early and we want to see the cross with the 10dma to really confirm the breadth turn.
Bottom line:
NQ_F remains in an uptrend above all kma’s and base area.
ES_F & RTY_F followed through today, but without much conviction and mainly from beaten down sectors.
Mega-caps that led recently is setting up nicely from base retest patterns. (AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA)
The market breadth remains weak, and we don’t see enough individual stocks follow through on their breakouts—still a hard penny market.
ST breadth is quite extended and shows nice basing action.
The VIX following through today and closing below kma’s is constructive.
For these reasons, I remain neutral/bullish, but very cautious as we still have many red flags from this market.
Market health & Trend indicators:
IT_SIGNAL (NAHL): downtrend (red) + BELOW 50dma = INTERMEDIATE-TERM DOWNTREND (🟥)
ST_SIGNAL (NASI): uptrend (black) + BELOW 10dma = SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
Tomorrow's economic news/events:
GAME PLAN:
Tomorrow I want to see the market show strength if we follow through on today’s reversal. An ideal scenario would be a red open then reversal, this would give us good indication that this market is supported and constructive.
Overall, I remain seeing enough potential clues to start increasing my exposure if the market continue acting well and my progressive exposure allows me.
FOCUSLIST
LIQUID LEADERS (MEGA-CAPS)
SMALL/MID-CAP STOCKS (PT UNIVERSE LIST)
INDICES TRADES
LIQUID LEADERS (MEGA-CAPS)
MSFT (BORS) - Alert: 283.33, SL: 275.28 / LOD
Been holding well the 270/275$ base area and the 5dma last week. We are setting up for a BORS setup this week if we can follow through with a higher high breakout.
UPDATE: We tried to break from the anticipation entry, but failed to follow-through and came back down with the tech sector. We are still above all kma’s and above the recent base area. Today was also on low volume.
AAPL (BORS) - Alert: 162.14, SL: 157.68 / LOD
Another leading mega-cap that has been showing a lot of strength last week and surfs above the 5dma. We held the 155/157$ base area and set up a BORS setup if we can reclaim the recent swing high pivot.
UPDATE: Still inside the recent channel and we could see a 10dma or support retest tomorrow if we open weak. Also on low volume, so no red flag.
TSLA (BORL) - Alert: 198, SL: 187.15 / LOD
After Jan/Feb. move, we've been consolidating above the 50dma. We reclaimed all kma's and 180/190$ base area and retested those levels late in the week. I like the odds of this BORL setup if we can hold & push above that DTL.
UPDATE: I took the trade from the anticipation entry, but never triggered the 198.00$ alert level. I think that TSLA is building very nicely in that range above all kma’s and I will be looking to add on that range breakout.
AMZN (WBPB) - Alert: 100.99, SL: 96.4 / LOD
After breakout of the kma’s & DTL on the recent push from the lows, we are consolidating right above the kma’s while making higher lows in this tight area. I would look for a breakout of that range for an entry.
SMALL/MID-CAP STOCKS (PT UNIVERSE LIST)
LNTH (BO10PB) - Alert: 83.82, SL: 78.55 / LOD
Following the power earnings gap (PEG), it broke out from its base 2w ago and pulled back to the 10dma in a tight channel and low volume last week. If it can breakout from that DTL & swing high pivot, we could see continuation higher.
UPDATE: Still building in the channel and acting well.
MAXN (BO21PB) - Alert: 26.61, SL: 23.78 / LOD
A recent big earnings winner that is now forming a VCP pattern with higher lows above the 21dma. High ADR name that could move very quickly if we break the DTL as an anticipation entry. You can wait for more confirmation at the 26.61$ level.
MNDY (WBPB) - Alert: 139.61, SL: 133.73 / LOD
After breaking out of the DTL last week, we came back to retest the UTL in the last 2 days. We are now very tight at the kma’s and in a tight range for the last 2 weeks. I would look at this range high pivot & reclaim of kma’s for an entry.
OKTA (BO21PB) - Alert: 84.95, SL: 82.31 / LOD
Recent earnings winner that is consolidation with higher lows at the 21dma. We are now very tight right below the DTL and volume is getting very low too. We are prime for a move.
INDICES TRADES
If we follow through on today’s reversal tomorrow morning and see a clear bounce being aggressively bought at the 10dma, I would look to initiate a TQQQ position on the 12801$ level reclaim.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors
We followed through on Friday’s reversal today and closed at the 10dma. This is healthy to consolidate and digest the recent gains for the recent leading sector. I will look closely how we handle a possible 21dma retest. Volume today was very low.
FDN Internet
Still building nicely below the DTL and above all kma’s & UTL. Looks healthy.
IGV Software
Tried to breakout from the 293.41$ base level again today but closed flat. Still inside FOMC day’s range and above all kma’s.
TAN Solar
Was not able to break down today, but still flagging below the 21dma.
XBI Biotech
Feeble follow through on Friday’s bounce attempt. We are still below the DTL & all kma’s, but this is a first step. Volume was very weak too today.
XLE Energy
Followed through on Friday’s bounce attempt and closed just above the 10dma. Still in downtrend.
XME Metals & Mining
Followed through on Friday’s HL & bounce attempt. We closed above the DTL & 10dma, but remain below base area & 21dma.
XRT Retail
Very weak follow through and still below all kma’s. Downtrend.
MARKET BREADTH & INTERNALS
NAHL (Cumulative new 52W Highs/Lows & 50dma)
We remain down on NDX, but NAHL turned up today. Need more NNH for NAHL to turn too.
IT_SIGNAL: downtrend (red) + BELOW 50dma = INTERMEDIATE-TERM DOWNTREND (🟥)
NASI (McClellan summation index & 10dma)
Finally turned today for 1st time since Feb. 7th…yeah! That's very constructive, but we need a cross of the 10dma to confirm the ST upside trend.
ST_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + BELOW 10dma = SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
NAMO (McClellan Oscillator - Breadth extensions)
New high with this structure breakout today.
Improvement in the NNL, but still negative. NYHL turned NNH today.
NAAD (NYSE Net Advances/Declines)
Weak positive today, but still positive.
NAA200R (Stocks > 200dma - LT breadth)
Still in basing action. The breakout from either side will give us MUCH information about the potential market direction. Stay tuned.
NAA50R (Stocks > 50dma - MT breadth)
Same basing action with a potential U&R with today’s thrust.
NAA20R (Stocks > 20dma - ST breadth)
New high and continue to improve.
Very constructive action as we followed through on Friday’s 25 rejection and closed below all kma’s, but right at the recent UTL. If we could close below 20 in the next few days that would be very constructive.
Rejected just below the 10dma. Can we follow through tomorrow?
We gapped down right at the 10dma and inside the base area and rallied a bit today, without being able to reclaim the 1.60 level.
Big Yields bounce today and confirm the U&R setup. We are only at the 10dma and below the UTL, but this is an interesting move to come back inside the recent months range.
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LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
AEHR,ELF,ALGM,ANET,PANW,ONON,FSLY,LNTH,LSCC,IOT,SMCI,CARG,DUOL,ACLS,INDI,DKNG,MAXN,CNK,GFS,MELI,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
FRO,EURN,ALB,INSW,CALM,ASC,ELF,CPRX,DHT,MUR,H,PANW,ANET,HIMS,ALGM,AEHR,NE,BTU,NCLH,PR,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
FSLY,AEHR,DUOL,ONON,BBIO,ALGM,ELF,ACLS,IOT,LNTH,SMCI,LSCC,MAXN,ANET,INDI,CNK,SHOP,ASAN,FRO,CARG,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
DUOL,ONON,MAXN,ASAN,BBIO,ANET,AEHR,OKTA,FSLY,KBH,IOT,HLIT,SMCI,ELF,FLYW,DV,SHOP,CPRX,DOCN,PATH,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
FSLY,BBIO,DUOL,AEHR,ONON,INDI,ACLS,MAXN,LNTH,CNK,IOT,DKNG,ASAN,ALGM,HIMS,FRO,DOCN,LSCC,ABNB,ELF,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
AEHR,FSLY,ACLS,ELF,ALGM,SMCI,ONON,OII,LSCC,DUOL,HIMS,BBIO,PARR,IOT,RXDX,FRO,AIMC,INDI,SHOP,ASC,
REFERENCES
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