Alex's daily Market Update & Focuslist - 05/27 🖊️
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not financial or investing advice. The information is for education purposes only and reflects only my own operation.
MARKET REVIEW
Well all the clues from the past days were leading to today’s action. We confirmed the rally imo with these very important actions I described yesterday:
Channel DTL breakout
Closed above 10dma & 3981$ pivot
Closed @ 21dma target
Confirmed FTD on SPX & NDX
Note that tomorrow will be an early close, at 14:00.
Upside:
Now that we’ve reached the 21dma where we rolled over last 2/3 times, I think that the market will have to prove itself to me before I’m getting more aggressive and increase my exposure.
On the upside, if we continue pushing tomorrow, 4104$ is an VERY IMPORTANT level. It was last Feb. & May low and that’s where we reversed hard on last Powell speech one day rally.
Downside:
It’s possible that the 21dma will act as resistance to close the week tomorrow. In that case, the bulls reaction will be very important. We’ll have to see if they steps in and defend the 10dma retest. If we do this, that would be even more positive as it would be a clear character change from last 21dma rollovers, and making a structure higher low as well.
MARKET BREADTH
NET new 1M & 52W high on the NYSE!
McClellan already being stretched here at 257… this is a bit concerning and could reinforce the 21dma or 4104$ potential ST resistance to retest the 10dma & form a higher low.
Stocks > 50dma confirmed the channel breakout today, and that really fueled the rally imo. This breadth indicator is very powerful to spot potential reversal. That’s also how I spotted the last March power rally. Remember this one ;)
VIX had a CHANGE OF CHARACTER today as it was not able to rally above 30$ for the first time in the last week. This is very positive and now we want to see this down drift continue like we saw back in March.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Another day with Retail being really strong. This is confirming. I think tomorrow personal income & spending release could impact these sectors, be careful.
Solar & C Energy with still another good day. I noticed that many solar name B/O of wedges yesterday. But I don’t like having so much overhead resistance, so I’ll wait for my pitch in these sectors. They’ll give better entries for my style later.
ENPH for example, but it’s straight into the resistance zone.
Crude Oil (CL_F) breakout of 111.37$ pivot today! finally loll. Now we’re right in that next 114.83/116.57$ resistance area. Let’s see if we can have enough power to breakout of this zone as well.
NG_F (Natural Gas) with yet another breakout attempt that failed today. 2 times now. We are still holding the 5dma and might just need some time to work it out a bit. But this is not a clean breakout.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Did not do much today as market struggled to stay above the 21dma, which is my next trigger to increase to 40% my exposure.
I tried entering TELL at 4.69$ but failed right away and stopped out with a 2.5% loss.
New positions:
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
DAILY FOCUSLIST
5 names in my FocusList tonight.
We have again a lot of runners that broke out from their pivot in the last few days. We still have a few setups, but far less than early this week.
Tonight’s names are in these sectors:
Nat Gas
Oil
Transportation
Medical products
Remember to use progressive exposure to finance the risk of your next position. One step at a time, don’t load the boat, there will be PLENTY of occasion to jump in stocks on this rally. Managing Risk is your JOB #1
TELL - We trigged my 4.69$ pivot alert today but failed to close above it. I had to close the trade with a small loss. Setup is still valid and I’ll replace my alert for a 4th attempt. Still playing the WB but a tight action breakout as being the confirmation.
REI - Another that trigged his alert but came back in. I did not take this one today, but I’ll put my alert back and still interested in this name as the setup is still very well valid. We have a BORL setup at the 50dma on this Oil stock.
GNK - BORS setup is still very valid here after a quick retest of the breakout level & 5dma again today. A breakout of 25.64$ pivot would confirm continuation.
LNTH - We have many technical setups here. BORL setup from the recent action retesting the breakout level, but also a BO21PB playing out right below 68.80$ base top. I will look at a more aggressive pivot, 67.35$ for an early entry before being in the more volatile classic 68.80$ base breakout.
FLNG - WB setup here that also retested 2 times the MT breakout area off 23/25$ recently. We have the DTL to plat against, but will probably take today’s high for a more conservative entry on this one. I also like how we found support at the 50dma, which is an important ema.
RELATIVE STRENGTH
I’ll start tracking top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS ratio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
HDSN,CRK,AR,SD,EQT,SWN,CVI,SIGA,PTEN,AMR,DINO,OXY,BTU,CIVI,ESTE,SM,RRC,CC,CTRA,HP,
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
SIGA,DLO,PRPL,PLAB,RELY,SQM,CVET,SD,SM,FRO,AR,ESTE,CRK,AVDX,SWN,PTEN,TMST,DVAX,CELH,LPI,
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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