Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/10
The pullback continues - DEFENSE (NOTE: NO DAILY REPORT NEXT WEEK)
PLEASE NOTE:
From August 13 to 18, there will be no daily reports as I will be on vacation without internet access. (Tonight is the last)
Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
ES tried to bounce & rally from this morning's CPI report, but we quickly found strong resistance right where we discussed last night. The high_AVWAP & 10dma pushed the market down in that 4493$ area by making yet another new low today.
We have a lot of overhead resistance ahead:
high_AVWAP
Channel DTL
10dma
21dma
4551$ structure area
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4493$ base level/area: strong support so far, on watch.
4419$ level: Early July structure & precise measured move for this pullback.
50dma: -4.20% from the top (-0.5% from here)
4303$ (would be around 200d/30wma) : -7.13% (-4.0%)
4190$ recent base: -9.77% (-6.5%)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a GREEN LT market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed UP (-0.34%), and we are almost at 50dma.
Breadth was DOWN, but improved from yesterday (-101)
U/D volume at 1.11
MCSI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma
Daily MOMENTUM was DOWN again for the 8th consecutive day (0.48) - 5 & 10-day ratio negative.
LT_momentum broke to a new low today, but still positive.
NNH is at +11 (+1.7%) & PTHL is back in an uptrend and a new high. (constructive)
0.53% > 50dma. (We are getting right in that potential bounce spot)
BOTTOMLINE:
The pullback continues to play out, and until we see MSCI & momentum curve back up, along with price reclaiming kma’s…we’ll remain in a low probability and unfavorable market.
DEFENSE
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Pullback continues, and we are now pushing below the 40% level.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
We are now approaching the 50% level.
High volatility on the VIX itself, as we nearly retested the 21dma this morning and the 17.08$ level this afternoon. We are back in that range, and we’ll need more confirmation.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
DTL rejection continues as we remain below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
10dma bounce, and 4.09% reclaim. Not the Yields move we wanted to see, and it will undoubtedly be a headwind for growth again.
Credit Spreads were rejected at the 21dma, on volume, which looks constructive here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC retesting the 10/21dma and an interesting spot for a bounce within that tight PB channel.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily & weekly Focuslist (POSITION+SWING), including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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