Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 03/29
The market follow through on yesterday's reversal attempt and showed a lot of strength.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ_F followed through on yesterday’s bounce and reclaimed the 12801$ and channel DTL. We then pushed on increased volume to close the day +1.83% higher.
This impressive move today confirms the BO10PB & BORL setup on NQ.
We might get into overhead resistance in the 13000/13100$, so we’ll have to keep an eye open as/if we reach this area.
NQ_F is still above ALL KMA’s - uptrend.
On the upside (bullish scenario),
The 13000/13100$ area will be the next potential resistance above. That’s a 1% move, so within reach tomorrow.
On the downside (bearish scenario),
As long as we stay above 12801$ base level, we must assume it’s healthy pullback action.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
LIQUID LEADERS (PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS)
As the breadth is picking up and NYSI has turned and almost crossed the 10dma as an ST uptrend signal, I will turn back my focus to my bread & butter, the small/mid-cap stocks. I will still track these mega-caps stocks as they give a great indication of the market health and might give warning signs to stay out of the market.
If you want to trade them, I’ll still put my “ALERT” & “STOP-LOSS” levels on the charts. Up to you!
MSFT -Daily
Wedge DTL breakout today but could not reclaim the recent swing high pivot yet. Great action.
AAPL -Daily
Channel DTL breakout. Nice action from the 10dma bounce.
TSLA -Daily
Still in that range area and unable to breakout from the channel today. Lagging the other MC.
AMZN -Daily
Channel breakout and reclaim of recent swing high pivot. Leading MC today.
NVDA - Daily
Channel breakout from the 10dma bounce today. We are still below the high pivot, so let’s see if we need to build a bit of consolidation in the next few days, as we’re quite extended already.
META - Daily
One of the leading 2023 YTD MC, we’re still building in that consolidation and now sitting just below the 205.76$ base pivot. On watch for a breakout tomorrow.
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
The market followed through on yesterday’s reversal, and we gapped up and showed a lot of strength on the indices. More importantly, breadth & participation are widening today as more & more stock breakouts are working, and we see a wider sector’s participation.
We begin to see more & more positives in this market, especially with today’s action.
We are only on day 1 of a possible rally, so we’ll need to see how we follow through tomorrow and handle the overhead resistance. We have to trust this rally attempt one step at a time as this market is turning into oversold territory, and we have seen many high-quality setups for a few days.
Bottom line:
NQ_F remains in an uptrend above all kma’s.
Mega-caps that led recently showed strong bounces and breakouts today.
The market breadth improves again today, and NYSI (ST_SIGNAL) is one inch to trig an ST uptrend signal.
Stocks above their 200 & 50dma broke out of their range on the upside today from oversold levels.
The VIX is now <20 and continued lower today
Credit Spreads are now below the 21dma on a good move down today.
We see more & more high-quality setups working and holding their breakout. This is very constructive.
We have a wider sector’s participation as now not only SMH/FDN/IGV are holding the market. Beaten down sectors trying to reclaim key levels.
For these reasons, I am bullish but STILL cautious, as we still need NYSI to flip above the 10dma to confirm our ST rally. But so far, this is constructive action.
Market health & Trend indicators:
IT_SIGNAL (NYHL): uptrend (black) (red) + BELOW 50dma = INTERMEDIATE-TERM UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
ST_SIGNAL (NYSI): uptrend (black) + BELOW 10dma = SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
Tomorrow's economic news/events:
GAME PLAN:
Tomorrow, I want to see if I can build more cushion in my new MAXN & OKTA positions before opening any new exposure. We also have a PCE (inflation) report on Friday morning, so I’ll probably want to stay on the light side unless I build a good cushion tomorrow.
We’ll test this market one step at a time using progressive exposure.
FOCUSLIST
SMALL/MID-CAP STOCKS (PT UNIVERSE LIST)
INDICES TRADES
SMALL/MID-CAP STOCKS (PT UNIVERSE LIST)
NET (BO50PB) - Alert: 58.09, SL: 55.88 / LOD
After a 95% move from the lows in January, we’ve digested that move back to the 50dma and now building higher lows right on the SQUEEZED kma’s. That’s a very nice setup that could move fast tomorrow.
PANW (BORL) - Alert: 194.58, SL: 189.84 / LOD
Cyber-security name that is consolidating above the 21dma since its 13% PEG. We are now retesting the base area in a tight channel, so if we can break out of that, we could see continuation higher.
ABNB (WBPB) - Alert: 120.06, SL: 116.02 / LOD
Consolidating since the Feb. earnings and now building higher lows at the 50dma while the 10 & 21dma are stacked as well. Seems ready for a push.
HIMS (BORL) - Alert: 10.27, SL: 9.57 / LOD
Another name is retesting the base area we broke on the last earnings. We are now building higher lows at the 10/21dma. If we can reclaim the 50dma bounce swing high, we could see continuation.
MNDY (WBPB) - Alert: 139.61, SL: 132.44 / LOD
The software group is set up well and has been leading recently. MNDY might now be the leading stock but could offer a nice swing from this WBPB setup on reclaim of the kma’s.
INDICES TRADES
We are past a good entry for TQQQ. We need to wait for a PB and proper R/R setup.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors
257.20$ base-level breakout! This is a very important move today and especially in the leading sector, and on a second attempt. We are still below last week highs, so I would like to see a reclaim of those to really claim victory here, but this is positive action today,
FDN Internet
Channel DTL breakout, We confirmed potential continuation. Now, can we follow through tomorrow?
IGV Software
Channel DTL breakout and reclaim of the 293.41$ base level. This is very constructive action.
TAN Solar
A potential base launchpad is forming now below the DTL and important base area. We have been building since last Tuesday a base that held the 71.75$ base level and tightened in the last few days to reclaim the 74.20$ level and 21dma today. Tomorrow, we want to follow through with a DTL breakout to confirm this constructive action.
XBI Biotech
10dma reclaim today on increased volume. This is constructive, but a lot of overhead supply here.
XLE Energy
Follow through and 21dma breakout today. I’ll watch the 82.79$ level as potential resistance tomorrow.
XME Metals & Mining
Follow through out of the range box and now sitting at the 21dma right inside the resistance area. Pivotal day tomorrow.
XRT Retail
Still in that range area and below the DTL. We want to see a breakout in this important sector.
MARKET BREADTH & INTERNALS
NYHL (Cumulative new 52W Highs/Lows & 50dma)
We turned back up today, indicating an IT downtrend under pressure.
IT_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) (red) + BELOW 50dma = INTERMEDIATE-TERM UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
NYSI (McClellan summation index & 10dma)
We continued higher today and were SOO close to crossing the 10dma to give us an official ST-UPTREND signal. Maybe tomorrow?
ST_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + BELOW 10dma = SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
NYMO (McClellan Oscillator - Breadth extensions)
Big push today as we again had strong advances.
Back to NNH, this is very constructive.
NYAD (NYSE Net Advances/Declines)
Big thrust at 1700+.
NYA200R (Stocks > 200dma - LT breadth)
Range breakout today. This is very constructive.
NYA50R (Stocks > 50dma - MT breadth)
Range breakout today. This is very constructive.
NYA20R (Stocks > 20dma - ST breadth)
We continued to push today and are now at 44.56%. We still have room to run ST, IMO.
New low for the VIX and now below 20.
Found support today and possible higher low.
A big drop today, which is good. We are now below the 21dma, but we want to see a break of that range area tomorrow to really kicks things off.
Rejected at the 21dma.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
AEHR,ELF,ALGM,HIMS,ANET,ONON,FSLY,LSCC,DKNG,IOT,PANW,DUOL,LNTH,ACLS,MELI,SMCI,MAXN,BOWL,MGM,GFS,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
FRO,EURN,ALB,INSW,CALM,ASC,ELF,CPRX,DHT,MUR,H,PANW,ANET,HIMS,ALGM,AEHR,NE,BTU,NCLH,PR,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
BBIO,FSLY,DUOL,AEHR,ONON,ALGM,INDI,LSCC,ACLS,HIMS,MAXN,DKNG,ELF,IOT,SHOP,CNK,MELI,LNTH,ANET,SMCI,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
BBIO,MAXN,DUOL,ONON,ASAN,FSLY,BOWL,FLYW,IOT,OKTA,SHOP,KBH,FOUR,DOCN,PATH,HALO,GPK,OXY,JNPR,ANET,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
BBIO,FSLY,DUOL,AEHR,INDI,ONON,MAXN,DKNG,ACLS,CNK,HIMS,LNTH,ALGM,IOT,ASAN,LSCC,FRO,ELF,MELI,DOCN,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
AEHR,BBIO,FSLY,ACLS,ALGM,ELF,ONON,HIMS,LSCC,DUOL,SMCI,OII,INDI,PARR,SHOP,FRO,IOT,RXDX,ASC,MELI,
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
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