Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 09/11
Weak technical bounce - Can we follow through and breadth follows, or that weakness leads to a rollover?
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES/ bounces today after breaking out of that last four days’ tight channel.
This is a good initial step, as we reclaimed key levels:
4534$
Current pullback swingH_AVWAP
But we remain below the 50dma, which could act as potential resistance.
I’ll want to see a good follow-through tomorrow to confirm a close above 4534$, ideally reclaiming the 50dma.
Remember that we are now in a tricky & pivotal spot…right before CPI ;)
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
Price closed FLAT (0.0%)
Breadth was DOWN (-6.9) - flat
U/D volume at 1.63 - OK
MCSI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma - continue to round down
Daily MOMENTUM was UP & POSITIVE (1.44) - Some momentum is returning, but this is still weak.
5 & 10-day downtrend and 10-day back to positive
NNL is at -2 - improved again
-0.74% > 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE:
We can see it as an improvement in the last few days... but the market remains weak under the hood.
This could lead to 2 scenarios we’ll have to monitor in the next few days.
Price bounce that might pick up speed when/if breadth catches up.
Price bounce that is not confirmed by breadth will likely rollover.
PTMM is at a RED market signal (🟥)
No new LONG exposure
Protect b/e
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Small bounce…now at 38%
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Small bounce…now at 32%
Inside day, but at least we didn’t spike and closed near the lows of the daily range.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Bounced again at recent base level.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Follow through on the 21dma bounce today. It is not great.
Great action here, and no red flag from Credit Spreads.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Broke the recent right range today, but still above last January's low. We remain in no man’s land…with a bearish look.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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