Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/28
The market is trying to work a bottom with internals improving - The next few days will be critical
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES followed through on last Friday’s HIGHER LOW, and we saw a close above the pullback channel DTL, 10dma, and 4419$ level, which is very constructive.
After a very volatile & choppy session, we finally closed near the high for the day.
I would have liked to see a broader & stronger participation in that follow-through, but it was at least a step in the right direction.
The ST trend remains DOWN, seeing that follow through today is positive.
We have important overhead resistance ahead:
high_AVWAP
21 + 50dma
4493$ structure levels
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4341$ recent support structure
4312$ level
30wma/200dma
4221/4259$ 2022 important base structure area
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM)
PTMM is on an LT GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed UP (+0.81%) and still below all kma’s.
Breadth was UP and relatively strong (+350) - Not breadth thrust power
U/D volume at 7.87 - strong
MCSI UPTREND + BELOW 10dma - Turned up today
Daily MOMENTUM was UP (7.0) - strong
5 & 10-day both rising
NNH is at +9 - First NNH today!
-2.15% < 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE:
The market continues to improve and try to carve up a bottom here.
Today, we saw the first NNH and MCSI turning up for the first time of that entire pullback. This is very constructive.
We need to see this action continue this week as we reclaim kma’s on ideally a strong breadth thrust reading (+400)
We’ll approach the point where we’ll confirm the end of that pullback or the roll lower and pullback resumption.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Strong push as the market internals are improving.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Potential double bottom. This is constructive.
Today, we’ve lost the recent pullback channel structure and closed below the 16$ base structure to confirm the breakdown.
This is very constructive action.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Back below all kma’s. If we break that UTL, we have good chance to see Yields trending down.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
10Y could not follow through on the bounce attempt and we MIGHT have made a LH. We remain above all, so we still work to do
Recent structure break, that’s what we wanted to see. Tomorrow, we need to follow through.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still building that tight bear flag-ish structure below all kma’s.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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