Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 06/26
The week opened strong, but the strength quickly got faded.
Good evening guys,
Enjoy tonight’s letter!
Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ opened strong but gave back all its gain and broke last week’s low pivot, mainly dragged down by mega-caps.
Pullback continues and shows no reversal attempt so far.
I’m watching 15475$ for an upside continuation and 14803$ as potential support if we keep pulling back.
We are now 7.4 above the 50dma. We are still extended, but getting there.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Strong open, but rejected at the 30wma as we still closed positive on the day—clear leadership from small-cap today.
We are still seeing LOWER HIGHS and very choppy price action in the last months. No uptrend was established in small caps.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Was not able to push higher here as well, as we faded the open strength and closed below last week’s low pivot.
Pullback continues.
PT_UL BREADTH & INTERNALS
Price closed DOWN (-0.32%) and closed below the 21dma after retesting it.
Breadth was NEGATIVE but improved (-9), with a NEGATIVE U/D volume.
MSCI downtrend + BELOW 10dma.
MOMENTUM was negative again today and we might lose LT momentum tomorrow if we get another day like today.
NNH at +2, but approaching NNL flip and PTHL really rounding and looks like it can start a downtrend if we pullback further. (29th in a row, but weakening again)
Bottomline:
PT MODEL = GREEN market signal (🟩) on PULLBACK (🟥).
We saw strong action at the open, but the Breadth & Momentum quickly faded. We closed the day very weak and finally closed the day negative. That's not the type of action we want to see on a bounce attempt, so I'm remaining very cautious with the current breadth & price action.
We have to respect the risk involved here as the market internals are deteriorating and bounces attempt are being faded so far—time to be patient and wait for the PT_Model to flip back positive.
Internals
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
We remain below the weekly DTL but are certainly in a pivotal area.
1.56 & 30wma reclaim last week was a red flag. We’ll see if we follow through or not this week.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC closed last week very strong, just below the 31050$ recent swing high pivot. If we can reclaim that level this week and push above, we’ll have a new high and an uptrend continuation confirmation.
SECTORS ANALYSIS
Large-cap felt the pressure today and dragged the major indices down as they were the only down group today.
Small & Mid-growth closed positive and showed positive divergence.
The rotation continues as we saw inflow in defensive & cyclical sectors like: Real Estate XLRE Energy XLE Basic Materials XLB Utilities XLU Industrial XLI
Themes & Subsectors
Luxury, transport, and Smartphone themes showed RS today, outside cyclical & defensive sectors.
DAILY LEADERS (top10)
Silver Miners SIL
Natural Gas Producers FCG
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production PXE
Shipping SEA
Copper Producers COPX
Infrastructure ENFR
Transport IYT
Regional Banks KBWR
Steel Production SLX
Junior Gold Miners GDXJ
WEEKLY LEADERS (top10)
Healthcare Providers IHF
Homebuilders XHB
Transport IYT
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production PXE
Steel Production SLX
Silver Miners SIL
Environmental Services EVX
Food & Beverage PBJ
Retail XRT
Gold Miners GDX
% from 52w LOW (top10)
Semiconductors PSI
Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
Social Media SOCL
Copper Producers COPX
Homebuilders XHB
Oil & Gas Equip. & Services PXJ
Internet PNQI
Gaming & eSports ESPO
Robotics ROBO
Blockchain Technology BLOK
% from 52w HIGH (top10)
Homebuilders XHB
Environmental Services EVX
Aerospace & Defense PPA
Luxury LUX
Medical Devices IHI
Vice Stocks VICE
Smart Grid GRID
Smartphones NXTG
Transport IYT
Internet PNQI
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors: Closed below last week’s low pivot, so the pullback continues so far.
IGV Software: We closed below last week’s low pivot, but we remain inside the prior week’s range.
ITB Home Builders: Faded the week open strength, but remain in a solid uptrend.
XLY Consumer discretionary: Closed below last week’s low pivot, so the pullback continues so far.
FOCUS & LEADERS LIST
DKNG - DRAFTKINGS INC. (wBO10PB) - Alert: 25.79, SL: 24.16
Leading sector (Consumer Disc. (XLY) + Gaming (BJK))
Lot of RS last week.
10/30wma aligned & uptrend
At 10wma.
137% prior uptrend
6 weeks base & consolidation
Higher lows prior to potential breakout
1.55 U/D ratio
Z - ZILLOW GROUP, INC. (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 48.92, SL: 46.6
Leading sector (Communication Services XLC + Internet PNQI)
Lot of RS last week.
10/30wma aligned & uptrend
Just bounced from 10wma, but still not extended.
88% prior uptrend
19 weeks base & consolidation following the stage 1 base breakout
Higher lows prior to potential breakout
Bad fundamentals, so there is less conviction in the name. But the chart is constructive and just coming out of stage 1.
1.65 U/D ratio, with only high volume green weeks since the bottom in 2022.
TPR - TAPESTRY, INC. (WBPB) - Alert: 44.38, SL: 41.89
Leading sector (Consumer Discretionary XLY, but not leading THEME - Luxury LUX )
10/30wma aligned, squeezed & uptrend
It just bounced from 10+30wma, but still not extended.
72% prior uptrend
5 weeks base & consolidation following the weekly DTL breakout
Higher lows and surfing the kma’s before the potential breakout.
1.28 U/D ratio.
HUBS (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 530.69, SL: 500.01
Leading sector (Technology XLK + Software PSJ)
Lot of RS last week. (compared to market + group)
10/30wma aligned & uptrend
Still a bit extended from the 10wma. (6/7%)
92% prior uptrend
3 weeks consolidation only.
Higher lows in last 2 weeks.
1.58 U/D ratio.
LRCX - LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION (BO21PB) - Alert: 630.72, SL: 598.42
Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits.
Leading sector (Technology XLK + Semiconductors PSI)
10/30wma aligned & uptrend
110% prior uptrend
Five weeks base & consolidation following the stage 2 breakout.
Higher lows and the last three weeks were VERY TIGHT.
1.27 U/D ratio.
INDICES/SECTORS:
IHI - iShares:US Med Dev ETF (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 56.35, SL: 55.01
(TMO ABT MDT ISRG EW SYK BSX DXCM BDX IDXX)
Stage 1 base breakout.
BLOK - Amplify Trans Data Shrng (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 21.81, SL: 20.36
(MSTR MARA ACN COIN OSTK CLSK SQ RIOT HUT IBM)
Stage 1 base breakout and now retesting the base area.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
SDGR,IMGN,MARA,MDB,VRT,SMCI,EXAS,SOFI,XP,ELF,CELH,NVTS,PLTR,UBER,IOT,RDFN,NVDA,APP,EXPI,TSLA,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RCL,ELF,CCL,NCLH,CELH,TMDX,DT,WNC,HTGC,SDGR,WYNN,EXAS,FUTU,CRSP,ALGM,ARRY,CSIQ,ALB,MGM,PANW,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
IMGN,MARA,MDB,XP,SDGR,SMCI,CCL,RCL,VRT,PLTR,EXPI,IOT,APP,SOFI,RDFN,NVTS,SGH,UBER,EXAS,NVDA,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
SOFI,GTLS,IMGN,GTLB,MARA,FIVN,COHR,NCLH,PLAY,CCL,PSTG,BRZE,GH,ATEC,RCL,IEP,DAL,TSLA,MTCH,BYND,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
IMGN,XP,SMCI,MDB,VRT,PLTR,APP,CCL,MARA,SDGR,SGH,RCL,CELH,CFLT,EXPI,LEGN,NVDA,RILY,BILL,TGTX,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
IMGN,MARA,SMCI,TGTX,RIOT,NVDA,APP,PLTR,RDFN,SDGR,NVTS,MDB,XP,VRT,META,DKNG,RCL,CCL,ACVA,IOT,
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS & GAMEPLAN
The market opened the week strong, but we saw the major indices close below last week’s low pivot to confirm the pullback continuation so far.
Despite that, we saw small & mid-cap leading the large-caps and the breadth being mostly positive all day. So despite what we see on NQ & ES, the action is not that bad underneath.
It still looks like a healthy pullback so far, but we won’t know until we see a reversal and breadth & momentum picking back up.
I’ll want to see my PT_MODEL show price action, breadth & momentum turn back up, and resumes the uptrend. Until then, I remain on the sideline for the confirmation of a high-probability market.
GAME PLAN:
Exposure model = GREEN market signal (🟩) on PULLBACK (🟥).
SIDELINE and only managing open positions until the PT_MODEL confirms the end of this pullback. (Price, Breadth & Momentum confirmation)
Economic news/events:
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
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