Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/26
Good reaction to FOMC, with PTMM curling back up!
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THERE WILL BE NO LETTER TOMORROW NIGHT (07/27). THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT (07/30).
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ was pretty volatile post-FOMC, with swings between 15522 & 15719$ levels that I highlighted last night. We are still in that range, but we are building constructively.
If we can breakout of that 15719$ range level, we should get good chances of a continuation higher to at least retest the 16029$ level.
15522$ & 21dma for potential support.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
RTY looking VERY constructive with post-FOMC 1990$ pivot & channel DTL breakout. We are now looking at a potential continuation breakout of 2005$ to confirm the uptrend follow-through and end of that PB.
Currently the leading indices, due to small-caps & Financials/Energy performance. That’s why I decided to open a TNA trade off that 1990$ pivot breakout today and will look to add if we can reclaim that 2005$ level tomorrow.
1965$ & 10dma for potential support.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
4609$ for upside continuation.
4560$ & 10dma for potential support.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed UP (+0.71%), and we closed above ALL kma’s.
Breadth was UP (+185) and pushed following FOMC into EOD.
U/D volume at 0.78
MSCI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma (We turned back up already)
Daily MOMENTUM was UP (2.3) - 5-day ratio will go back above 1 tomorrow if daily momentum is positive.
NNH at +26 & PTHL is back in an uptrend and a new high.
5.73% > 50dma. (kma's catching up, but still extended)
BOTTOMLINE:
FOMC is behind us, and the reaction was good, even with the choppy & volatile action we saw EOD.
Price could reclaim all kma’s and hold the 10dma on that recent stress test.
MSCI & PTHL back in uptrend
The 5-day ratio could be back above 1 tomorrow. ENDING THE PULLBACK SIGNAL.
MT & LT momentum keeps pushing to new highs.
This market is so strong. I’m impressed by how we handled the last 3-4 day’s pullback while being extended and overbought.
Remember that we can stay overbought longer than a short seller can remain solvent. We follow price, and right now, if we can push and get a good breadth thrust tomorrow, this would be the end of that “pullback” and back to a solid uptrend.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Still pulling back from the overbought area, and still elevated.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Still grinding higher in the overbought area.
Very constructive kma’s rejection and closed at its low right on the recent structure pivot. A new low from that big support area would be super positive for the market and confirm the breakout to a new high.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Same constructive action as the VIX today. Super positive.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Still trading around that 3.859% level and now might create a bear flag from the recent 50dma bounce.
New low, again. Very positive.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still sitting at the 50dma but not showing much signs of life as it was rejected off the 10dma today.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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