Alex's DAILY Market update & Focuslist - 04/15
Selling continues as major indices & sectors are breaking down from key structures.
Good evening!
I think the action can remain healthy if we bounce and make a higher low and rally. But the big problem will come if we bounce in the next few days and then fail at the recent structure, which would create a lower high, as I just explained. (50dma & recent base-level retest) Then, instead of making a higher low, we would flush to a new low.
If that happens, we'll confirm an actual trend change with now a lower high & lower low.
There is no need to anticipate or try to catch the bottom guys. If this is only a typical 5-10% pullback, then structure will tell us, and we'll have setups to engage in. Until then, I've been there too many times, trying to catch the low and losing money. I'll wait for the high-probability setup, which is not trying to catch the ST bounce.
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
This is not a good picture as of now. Price followed through below the 50dma and started living below. NNL is expanding. MCSI is picking up speed after making a lower high on a higher price (negative divergence). PTHL is now in a downtrend but still above the longer-term 50dma.
This is an explicit topping action that we see right here.
Now, will that pullback morph into a correction? Only time will tell.
One thing to note is how OS the 5-day ratio is now, so you can expect an ST bounce very soon. Now, how that bounce reacts to the overhead structure will tell a lot about whether this pullback is done or not.
I’ll update daily on how this pullback/correction develops and when signs are here that this might be the end, but as of now…this is a market that I’ll sit out and wait for a better environment.
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