Alex's daily Market Update & Focuslist - 06/08
Good evening folks!
Hope you had a good trading day, there was some really positive things that happened and we’ll try to find the clues if this continues or not. Let’s go!!
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MARKET REVIEW
We’ve just had a VERY constructive day.
We first tested 1848$ pivot pre-market and I wanted to see this level hold to keep this structure intact. We reverse to the tick on that level before finding very good buying pretty much all day.
We pretty much confirmed my bullish scenario from yesterday by closing above both the 50dma & 1888$ pivot. So I switch more aggressive as you’ll see in the PT portfolio section.
On the upside, the ideal scenario would be a retake of the 50dma & 1888$ pivot (recent swing high).
Bullish scenario:
A push toward the 1915$ pivot would be best case scenario here with a 1% move up.
We’ll have to be VERY CAREFUL though as we are approaching 2 VERY IMPORTANT LEVELS. 1915$ which was the support level from Jan. 2022 to April. We also have the DTL from ‘21 top that intersect almost perfectly with 1915. Hell of a coincidence…
So, we’ll want a CLEAR & POWEFUL push through these levels tomorrow or the day after to have a chance for a more prolonged rally.
Bearish scenario:
A want to see market stay above 1888$ pivot, otherwise we’ll have a false breakout and risk of rollover.
MARKET BREADTH
NET new 1M & 52W high on the NYSE. NDX continues to have NNL… that’s not what we want to see on a rally…
McClellan > 200. Still room to run.
Stocks > 50dma increased by 11% today. good, we’re trending higher
VIX with another DTL breakout attempt today only to be rejected and closing on it’s low. I expect a strong day tomorrow.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Good participation across the board today, but specially in Energy & Oil driven by commodities continuing their breakout.
Defense & Software showing good strength in last W. Will be on watch to find leadership in those sectors.
Crude Oil (CL_F) Held 5dma today and pushing 119.98$ pivot for a breakout.
NG_F (Natural Gas) pushing against 9.4$ for a new 52w high. NG names confirmed the move today, I expect good strength in the sector tomorrow.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
By confirming my bullish scenario, and also closing above ALL KMA’S I’ve increased exposure pretty aggressively today. FocusList was ready and alert came one after the other allowing me to still open in a succession and not at the same time.
New positions:
VST - Opened right on the alert @ 26.69$ confirming the base breakout
MPLN - Opened this name on the 5.31$ pivot I shared Sunday instead of 5.43$ I shared last night because we gapped down and this gave me the opportunity to enter at a better price. This is a proper stage 1 base breakout retest. Watch this one…
ZIM - Opened a bit before the pivot alert, and almost close the trade EOD but finally close just above the entry pivot. So I kept it.
CELH - Time to be aggressive with this name. We just had a BORS setup followed by an intraday WBPB in the last 2 days. (might be hard to see on the daily) Along higher lows in the tight consolidation. Added a full 20% position over my 5% runner. Now by biggest position.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
DAILY FOCUSLIST
5 names in my FocusList tonight!
I see many Oil & Energy names that are way past good entries, and also tech/software/semis that are strong, but below 50dma or too deep in their base. That’s not my style.
There is still very good setups tonight, but outside of Oil/Energy for me.
Tonight’s sectors & industries distribution:
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PT FocusList - TradingView shared link
CELH - We just had a BORS setup followed by an intraday WBPB in the last 2 days. (might be hard to see on the daily) Along higher lows in the tight consolidation. Setup is still in play and 70.25$ pivot would still be a very good pivot to enter this trade.
KLAC - One of the only semi’s I’m interested in right now. I like how we consolidate very tightly since the WB last week. We stayed above 340/350$ recent support area and made higher lows during this consolidation. 372.34$ swing high pivot is where we’ll confirm the WBPB setup.
ADM - It’s a WBPB setup, but also a low cheat setup from Minervini. We WB couple weeks back and now forming a consolidation area along higher lows within it. 91.81$ recent swing high pivot is my level of interest.
WLK - I see a couple setups here. a WBPB but also a bigger BORL setup as well. I like how we were able to hold the 21dma within this support area and also how we retested the DTL while making a higher low. 135.73$ pivot would be me WBPB setup confirmation.
GOGO - More volatile name, but we’ve build an interesting buy point on 10dma retest while making higher lows and refusing to reject that 21.03$ level. Building is building up and I’ll use the 21.03$ pivot for the handle breakout confirmation.
RELATIVE STRENGTH
I’ll start tracking top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS ratio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
BORR,VTNR,CVI,PBF,NINE,SD,AR,CRK,GTE,TALO,DK,EGY,LNTH,WTI,ESTE,CPG,CVE,MPC,RRC,NOG,
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
BZ,LPI,YMM,WTI,CHPT,PBF,PLAB,BORR,LI,BKSY,NINE,ESTE,CVI,CDEV,SM,CPG,PARR,VNET,SD,ERF,
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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