Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/24
Market is waiting for GOOG & MSFT earnings, and FOMC.
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ was mainly flat today as we traded without direction in a tight range below the 10dma.
The market is waiting for a catalyst as we tighten just above the base area and just above the 21dma.
15741$ for upside continuation.
15475$ & 21dma for potential support.
We are now 5.1% above the 50dma. (getting there…)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Pullback day #3.
2005$ or mini-channel DTL for upside continuation.
1965$ & 10dma for potential support.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Pullback day #3.
4609$ or mini-channel DTL for upside continuation.
4560$ & 10dma for potential support.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed FLAT-ish (-0.06%), and we closed below the 5dma but still above the 10dma.
Breadth was DOWN (-50) but remains very muted after last Thursday’s distribution.
U/D volume at 2.05 (Good, mainly due to NVDA & TSLA)
MSCI DOWNTREND + ABOVE 10dma (Flipped today)
Daily MOMENTUM was UP (1.2) - 5-day ratio is still negative & 10-day ratio is closing in fast.
NNH is FLAT at +0 & PTHL is FLAT (TOP)
5.31% > 50dma. (kma's catching up)
BOTTOMLINE:
The market is flat and probably waiting for significant mega-caps earnings & the FED. Since last Thursday’s reversal, Breadth & Price have been flat for the last two days.
The market refuses to break further down but also refuses to bounce. This deepens the PULLBACK signal, as MSCI just turned in a downtrend today.
I guess we’ll know more following MSFT & GOOGL earnings tomorrow night, along with FOMC on Wednesday. But again, I am pretty defensive right now, seeing this weakness while the market is already very extended & overbought.
If we reclaim the kma’s and push higher with good breadth following FOMC, I’ll re-consider my current stance.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
It just came off the overbought area, but I see a potential double top.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Still grinding higher in the overbought area.
Could not hold the gap and closed back below the 21dma.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Bounced off the support area again.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
All kma’s & 3.859% reclaim today. Yields look ready for another run here after that pullback…
Another new low.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Big base break today as we came down on volume to retest the 50dma. Not what we wanted to see and it might need some time to heal that move.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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