Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 11/30
Epic market rally fueled by Jerome Powell's speech!
Good evening folks!
Probably not many people expected such a rally today, but clearly, Jerome Powell’s speech caught the street off guard and fueled a big move in the indices.
Now, tonight’s preparation will be crucial to have our eyes on the best names & setups to increase exposure if we were to have a follow-through tomorrow.
Let’s go!
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Today, we got a power rally following JP’s speech, and we bounced from the 3964$ level and went straight through the 4016$ & 4050$ levels I was watching. The buying was strong & sustained all day, a clear change of character.
On the upside, the next potential area of interest that could offer resistance is the 4137/4212$ area. This will be an area I will be looking to nail some profit and trim into strength. Between 4050 & that area, there is no real potential resistance.
On the downside, obviously, after the move we just had today, a pullback is possible. I would like to see at least the 4050$ level to hold if retested.
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover important parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
✅ My takeaways, including my trading gameplan for tomorrow
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Market Breadth & Internals
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
Today’s reaction to Jerome Powell COULD be a clear change of character in this market, and we could see a sustained trend developing with the action and volume we see in the individual stocks, breadth, and internals.
I remain open to both scenarios, and we’ll let the market pull us in or out depending on the next few day’s actions. If we get a follow-through action tomorrow, that would be a good sign that the character really changed.
Some observations:
JP's speech might have changed the market expectations on rates & inflation.
Leading names showed big volume on key ma’s bounce
The proliferation of long setups tonight, and all are showing big volume.
VIX got rejected at the resistance area & 10dma
Breadth was VERY strong today (breakout)
DXY & 10Y failed their bounces and got rejected hard at the 10dma, closing at new lows.
Leading sectors (SMH & XLE & TAN) with solid breakout today ON VOLUME
Many sectors are on watch with breakouts, too (XBI IGV FDN etc.)
Like always, I engaged the market today on this good action, but I’m always staying alert if the conditions were to change. One step at a time using progressive exposure!
Gameplan:
Tomorrow, if we get follow-through action, I want to play more aggressively intraday with full positions and take back around 20-40% exposure, depending on the action we get and the profit cushion I can build.
If the market gap is down tomorrow, watch closely how the names in the focuslist are doing, and that would be a perfect scenario to play that big thrust today. A big gap-up would put me more on guard.
If we reach the ES_F 4137$ level tomorrow, I will certainly keep exposure lower than expected, as I see this area as potential resistance if we follow through.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
LONG FOCUSLIST
VCYT 28.55, ENPH 324.84, HIMS 6.31, STEM 13.62, DVAX 12.67, HRMY 60.62, CPRX 17.22, SWAV 256.06, STLD 105.2, AEHR 27.09+DTL,
VCYT
After a 110% run from the lows and consolidation on decreasing volume to the 21dma. We broke from that DTL today and the 26.97$ entry pivot I was watching in the last few days. I would use the higher swing high in the wedge for an entry tomorrow.
ALERT: 28.55$
STOP LOSS: 24.75$ / LOD
ENPH
It was not leading in the solar sector in the last few days, but still, a liquid leader that is setting up very well for a multi-month base breakout. Institutions might pile up in this one after a nice shakeout to the 21dma today.
ALERT: 324.84$
STOP LOSS: 303.06$ / LOD
HIMS
27% PEG on last earnings that led to a consolidation above the 10dma and a clear UTL working higher in the last few days. I would play the initial swing high pivot for an entry.
ALERT: 6.31$
STOP LOSS: 5.74$ / LOD
STEM
Still working and bouncing in that base area after the latest 50dma rejection 2d ago. I like that we are still right at the UTL, and that could be a meaningful bounce and where we take off. Tomorrow’s 50dma reclaim & recent swing high could be a great spot to get in this fast-moving stock.
ALERT: 13.62$
STOP LOSS: 12.26$ / LOD
DVAX
A retest of the stage 1 base area after a very contained pullback on decreasing volume. If we reclaim the initial base breakout pivot, it would confirm the potential continuation.
ALERT: 12.67$
STOP LOSS: 11.70$ / LOD
HRMY
Been building that consolidation for a few days/weeks above that 21dma after the PEG on the last earnings. Seems ready to breakout. Let’s not fakeout this time…
ALERT: 59.27$
STOP LOSS: 57.50$ / LOD
CPRX
A potential leading name I traded last week had a nice bounce at the 10dma today. This could be a nice entry on the base & 10dma retest following the false breakout.
ALERT:17.22$
STOP LOSS: 15.95$ / LOD
SWAV
Now that everybody got shaken out and nobody has eyes on it…might be the perfect time to play SWAV down here, right at the support area. We are below all kma’s, so it might not work, but I like the retest of the lows following the channel breakout and volume profile in the last few days as well.
ALERT: 256.06$
STOP LOSS: 242.53$ / LOD
STLD
Another name that showed great action last week and just kept pulling back on low volume back to the 10dma & recent structure area. We bounce nicely today on high volume. I am watching the recent swing high of yesterday.
ALERT: 105.20$
STOP LOSS: 100.65$ / LOD
AEHR
The current market leader right now sitting at ATH and above the 10dma. I am usually not playing ATH breakout like that, especially in 2022, where they were falling each time…but I can’t pass on the #1 leader in the mid-cap growth space like that. IF the market character changed today, then seeing this type of breakout work will be A BIG TELL that we’re entering a RISK-ON market environment.
ALERT: 27.09$ + DTL
STOP LOSS: 25.01$ / LOD
SHORT FOCUSLIST
🎖️ = Alex’s highest conviction setups
IMPORTANT NOTE:
I have the discipline to build a detailed FocusList each night, but I want to emphasize that I DON’T take all the trades that would trigger their entry. Some reasons to take a specific position over another or not take any trade, even if the alert is activated, are:
The general market price action
My Market-Based exposure model
My Portfolio-based exposure model (progressive exposure)
A high-conviction setup
Price action around the entry pivot
STOP LOSS:
Recent swing low pivot
For less active trading, you can use the recent swing low pivot as a good structure level to place your SL, but consider that the distance with the entry is larger, and you need to adjust your position size to keep the trade risk as a % of your portfolio ideally below 0.5%
LOD (Low Of Day) / HOD (High Of Day)
I like to use the LOD of the day I enter the trade. This way, I can use a larger position for the same trade risk as a % of my portfolio. BUT requires more active trade management and expects to be taken out more often (lower hit rate).
Then even if I take a trade at the entry pivot, I will very often sell it right away if the market roll over or the stock is backing out of the gate. I prefer to re-enter on the entry pivot reclaim than to be stuck with a larger loss. Please study all my education articles closely to learn how I handle trades around these entry pivots.
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Leading sectors:
(XLE) Energy - Still in that wedge and consolidation with another 21dma bounce today. Watch that DTL breakout.
(SMH) Semiconductors - Leading sector. Big bounce today and DTL & recent resistance area breakout.
(TAN) Solar - Leading sector. Resistance area breakout into new cycle high. Very positive here too.
On watch:
(XBI) Biotech - Possible breakout leading to a new uptrend in the biotech space. We are seeing more & more names confirming that strength.
(IGV) Software - 271.80$ reclaim, confirming the breakout from that base area. The volume was also very good today.
MARKET BREADTH & INTERNALS (RISK MODEL)
NYHL (New 52W Highs - Lows) - oscillating around with a positive reading today. Let’s see if we pick up speed.
Trend @ -23 (=)
NYAD (Net Adv/Decl) - BIG push today with 2274 net advances
20dma @ +246 (⬆️)
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT breadth) - BREAKOUT to a new high. this is very good.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT breadth) - BREAKOUT to a new high. this is very good. Still below Aug. high.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST breadth) - Impressive breadth thrust here after a 49.43$ pivot & 50dma rejection. We also broke from the wedge DTL…I really think we follow through and push for a couple of days…
VIX (Volatility S&P 500) - VIX with a BIG 10dma & resistance area rejection today. SUper positive and confirming the potential RISK-ON market. Until proven wrong :)
DXY (US $) - Big 10dma rejection here as well. Now let’s see if we can break that base area…that would be VERY positive.
US10Y/TNX (US 10Y bond yield) - DTL & 10dma rejection and closed below recent range pivot…very constructive now let’s see if we can go retest that support area.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
ASC,AEHR,CHGG,YPF,TNK,SMCI,BTU,HLIT,VCYT,NAT,LSCC,GMAB,RCUS,ELF,RLX,GPS,OII,BAND,HZNP,CCRN,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RES,SIGA,NOG,PSX,ASC,PR,DRH,TNK,ESTE,LTHM,CPE,CALM,PDCE,SWAV,RUN,MUR,HGV,SM,TRIP,HP,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
AEHR,RLX,YPF,CHGG,RCUS,HZNP,ASC,VCYT,GPS,LSCC,AEO,NAT,PRTA,HLIT,OII,BAND,BTU,GGB,GMAB,SMCI,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
XPEV,HZNP,RLX,YMM,BZ,LI,RCUS,PDD,BAND,IQ,DLO,ZLAB,VIPS,JD,CEIX,CERT,WMG,ZTO,PRM,BIDU,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
PRTA,AEHR,OII,RLX,HZNP,ASC,GPS,WFRD,BIIB,BAND,INSW,CHGG,YPF,NAT,GGB,RCL,LPG,CHX,TNK,CCRN,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
AEHR,PRTA,CPRX,TGTX,ELF,ASC,CCRN,TH,VRDN,YPF,RCUS,INSW,SHLS,NAT,CHWY,SMCI,ARRY,DHT,CHGG,ENPH,
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Hey Alex, your numbers on AEHR are bit off.
Hi Alex, hav to have about the SL you write. They are not very tight, for example VCYT is over 13 %. Am I missing something, because i'm quite sure you don´t think 13 % SL is recomended...
Cheers