Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/01
Retest of key levels following a failed breakout attempt - healthy action so far
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From August 13 to 18, there will be no daily reports as I will be on vacation without internet access.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ rejected the 15904$ recent swing high pivot again today, but we found good support at the 10dma as we closed in the upper range.
Normal & healthy action as we consolidate, digest, and let kma’s catch up.
On the downside, I want to see that 15475$ base area & 10wma hold on the weekly.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
RTY rejected the 2007$ breakout today but found good support at the 10dma too. I would like to see a 2007 reclaim and push tomorrow, and not a follow-through down.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
ES rejected the 4609$ base pivot, too, did not retest the 10dma, but closed weak in the lower range of the day.
I want to see the same action as RTY tomorrow.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM on a FULL GREEN market signal (🟩)
Price closed DOWN (-0.96%), still above all kma’s.
Breadth was DOWN (-231)
U/D volume at 0.53 (weak)
MSCI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma (new high)
Daily MOMENTUM was DOWN & weak (0.2)
NNH is at +21 (+3.2%) & PTHL is back in an uptrend and a new high.
65.41% > 50dma. (still extended, but could work off the excess with this kind of action)
BOTTOMLINE:
The market could not follow through after yesterday’s decisive action and failed to stay at new highs and keep that breakout. Tomorrow we’ll see if we follow through on that rejection or bounce and reclaim that breakout level.
So far, still healthy action with price above all kma’s.
Focus on your stocks and keep the market on the back of your head until we get a red flag.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Potential lower high if we can’t bounce.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Potential lower high if we can’t bounce.
Rejected at the range high pivot. Still trading around 10/21dma.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Reclaimed 21dma today and approaching structure level & 50dma. I’m watching these levels closely for potential resistance or trouble in the bond market.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Tight channel breakout and made a new ST high today. 4.089% will be on watch tomorrow as we don’t want yields to rally too hard for growth stocks to do well.
Small bounce into the 10dma. Still no red flag here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Found support RIGHT at 28478$ structure today and bounced hard to now flat. We are still below all kma’s, but it’s good to see key levels being bought like that. We want to see a kma’s reclaim now.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily & weekly Focuslist (POSITION+SWING), including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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