Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 12/15
SPY losing key levels and confirm the rollover scenario...!
Good evening folks!
We were right to be suspicious with all the clues pointing to a weakening of this market as it finally broke and might have begun the end of this rally and the rollover.
Let’s see where we might be heading.
Alex ✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (SPY) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
SPY gapped down and opened below the 10, 21dma, the 397$ level, and the UTL I was looking closely at as a trigger for the rollover scenario. We opened below all these, and we never looked back as we saw a solid downtrend all day to finally find some bids in the 387/390$ support area late in the day. We’ll have to see if this area holds tomorrow or if we continue lower to retest the 50dma.
On the upside,
The 387/390$ area seemed to hold today, but we need to see a reclaim of the 390$ level as a first step. Then we could look at the 392$ level reclaim that would be a good bounce off this area.
On the downside,
The 387$ level has to hold tomorrow and could be a potential bounce area.
If we can’t hold the 387$ level, then look at the 50dma.
If we can’t hold these levels, the 379/382$ area is the next logical support within reach.
NASDAQ (QQQ) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (IWM) Daily
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
The market broke KEY LEVELS today, making me switch and confirming my short thesis.
Yesterday, we saw a failed retest of previous resistance, no traction in individual names, and breadth deteriorating underneath the surface. Today, we confirmed that with PRICE.
This puts me in a VERY DEFENSIVE stance, and I adjusted my game plan and exposure accordingly.
Now, we’ll follow the price action and listen to the signs the market, leading names, and the sectors are telling us to switch back our focus on the long side. Until then, it’s either a SHORT or CASH market, IMO.
Tomorrow is the biggest OPEX (Options Expiration) day of the year and a Quadruple Witching event. So we might see volatile moves, especially at the opening and the close of the day. Trade carefully.
What is that?
Market health & Trend indicators:
LT SIGNAL: downtrend (red) + BELOW 50dma = BEAR market (🟥)
MT SIGNAL: downtrend (red) + BELOW 10dma = Downtrend (🟥)
Tomorrow's economic news:
Gameplan:
Tomorrow, I want to see the reaction of the market at the 387/390$ area first. If we bounce at the open, I will probably be looking to short this bounce for a potential follow-through day down.
In that case, I will add some SPXS exposure and maybe another individual short position from the UL.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Market Breadth & Internals
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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