Alex's daily Market Update & Focuslist - 06/08
Good evening folks,
Another very hard day in the markets! Let’s find out what changed today and what tomorrow can bring.
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MARKET REVIEW
Market is ranging around and don’t follow through…making it very hard to follow. After such a good & positive day yesterday, we failed our breakout and undercut 1888$ pivot.
That was pretty much last night bearish scenario playing out today as we failed our first leg swing high pivot breakout.
You also have to keep in mind that the market seems to wait for the very important Inflation CPI data on Friday morning. We really feel in the past few days that the market don’t want to take a side until this new information is known.
Take note also of the 2 last precedent of current price action since the start of the current market correction. History works, until it doesn’t.
Bullish scenario:
We still had an inside day today, so we could still be looking at a retake of the 1888$ pivot that would put me back on the bullish side.
Bearish scenario:
Above 1848$ pivot, I would still consider that we’re in a ranging market, but the POSSIBILITY of a rollover based on today’s false breakout. However, if we close below 1848$, I think we’re in trouble.
MARKET BREADTH
NET new 1M & 52W high on the NYSE. NDX continues to have NNL… that’s not what we want to see on a rally…
McClellan < 100. That’s a pretty big drop.
Stocks > 50dma failed to breakout as well. Closed below recent swing high 43.5%.
VIX still trending below the DTL… It puzzles me as we got a divergence with the market & VIX being down. It is not confirming the potential rollover yet. Probably because of CPI Friday, market volatility will remain low waiting for the news.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Completely 180deg from yesterday. Weakness across the board. Internet & Biotech standing out though.
Crude Oil (CL_F) Breakout of 119.98$ pivot today. We continue trending above all kma’s. Next potential target is 130$.
NG_F (Natural Gas) Ugly action on NG… We failed to breakout and crashed hard today back to the 21dma. We even broke our UTL on the futures. I exited my 2 NG positions today as you’ll see (EQT & SWN)
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Ok, every new positions failed their breakout and decided to cut them all with the market just starting to rollover. VST, CELH, MPLN, HP
Then, also decided to close my runners on CELH (+12%), SWN (+23%), EQT (+15%) & LNTH (+6.5%). I might be wrong here, but I had good gains on those so I preferred booking them. I also keep in mind where we are in this break market rally and all the big potential resistance just above us.
I could always re-open later.
New positions:
TZA - I also opened a big market short position around noon. As you know, 1888$ was a level of interest for me and the action around it was clearly a topping action. Look at how we first tried to reverse at the open before breaking below it…then reclaiming it and formed 3 candles with big tails all rejecting this DTL. I opened my position @ 34.98$ on the 1888$ pivot break.
Yep, it’s a big position…but I have the cushion I wanted to keep it overnight and try a bigger swing that could move the needle. Worst case scenario I close it tomorrow at b/e.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
DAILY FOCUSLIST
3 names in my FocusList tonight!
Energy & Oil is extended…NG breaking down… breakout failing… I am finding less & less setups and that’s a tell imo.
Tonight is 3 names that were in last night FL but they did not gave much back and showed high Relative Strength. If market reverse higher here, these name are still in striking distance of their entry pivot and give a good R/R entry.
Tonight’s sectors & industries distribution:
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PT FocusList - TradingView shared link
CELH - We just had a BORS setup followed by an intraday WBPB in the last 2 days. (might be hard to see on the daily) Along higher lows in the tight consolidation. Setup is still in play and 70.25$ pivot would still be a very good pivot to enter this trade.
KLAC - One of the only semi’s I’m interested in right now. I like how we consolidate very tightly since the WB last week. We stayed above 340/350$ recent support area and made higher lows during this consolidation. 372.34$ swing high pivot is where we’ll confirm the WBPB setup. Inside day today and still above UTL.
WLK - I see a couple setups here. a WBPB but also a bigger BORL setup as well. I like how we were able to hold the 21dma within this support area and also how we retested the DTL while making a higher low. 135.73$ pivot would be me WBPB setup confirmation. Still above 21dma and above UTL as well.
RELATIVE STRENGTH
I’ll start tracking top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS ratio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
BORR,VTNR,PBF,CVI,AR,SD,CRK,NINE,TALO,DK,GTE,WTI,ESTE,EGY,LNTH,CPG,CVE,MPC,RRC,SM,
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
BZ,LPI,YMM,WTI,CHPT,PBF,PLAB,BORR,LI,BKSY,ZH,NINE,ESTE,CVI,CDEV,SM,CPG,PARR,SD,VNET,
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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