Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/19
Reversal after a strong open - will we get a pullback...?
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ was unable to breakout above the 16029$ recent high and got rejected to close flat.
We saw some important reversal in individual names, but considering we were very extended, this was anticipated. Now we need to if we follow through on that reversal tomorrow.
I’ll be watching closely the 15857$ level for potential support. If we can’t hold that, a 15741 & 10dma retest is possible.
We are now 8.7% above the 50dma. (!!!!)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
New high, and closed mid-range.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
New high, and closed mid-range.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM stayed on a full GREEN market signal (🟩)
Price closed UP (+0.45%) and made a new price high.
Breadth was POSITIVE (+140) - Price & Breadth is fading in the last two days
U/D volume at 0.47 (weak & divergence to take note)
MSCI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma (new high)
Daily MOMENTUM was good (1.9)
NNH is at +44 & PTHL is still in an UPTREND (NNH new high)
8.24% > 50dma. (extended!)
BOTTOMLINE:
The market remains very ST-extended, and we have seen a fade in the last two days. Will that breadth flip negative tomorrow and a PULLBACK starting, or the uptrend remain strong & extended with breadth expanding?
Remember that an extended market can stay extended more than we think, but with that level of extension, a pullback or consolidation is bound to happen soon.
A pullback or consolidation would not be a bad thing for a sustained uptrend, it would be healthy.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
We made a new high today, still advancing in overbought territory.
That area acts as support, and we closed right at 21dma. It looks ready to bounce from here.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Downtrend below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Bounce at the 50dma & DTL again. We might be due for a bounce.
1.54 level rejection so far. This is good!
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
We remain below the 21dma. Need to push quickly above that base area…
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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