Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/20
Market attempting a technical/oversold bounce - can it follow-through?
Good evening!
I’m back from vacation, fully recharged, and on fiiiireeee! :)
The vacation was perfectly timed with the market, as we saw consent selling as the pullback was still raging. I hope I’ll bring a good market with me so we can catch the next window of opportunity.
Let’s go to close 2023 strong!
Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES found support precisely in the 4341/4369$ structure area on Friday. How downside extended we were, it was a logical place...but how we act in the following days/week around that area and overhead resistance will tell even more. It was only reversal attempt #1, and we need to see a follow-through tomorrow or Tuesday first.
We have a lot of overhead resistance ahead:
high_AVWAP
10 + 21 + 50dma
4419 & 4493$ structure levels
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4341$ recent support structure
4312$ level
30wma/200dma
4221/4259$ 2022 important base structure area
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Upside continuation confirmed with a close above 1965$.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a FULL RED (🟥) signal.
Price closed UP (+0.42%), now below all down-trending kma's.
Breadth was slightly UP (+164)
U/D volume at 0.63 (weak)
MCSI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma
Daily MOMENTUM was UP, but no thrust (2.43)
LT_momentum was up for the 3rd day in a row (rotation)
NNL is at -29 (4.4%) & PTHL is down in a confirmed downtrend above 50dma.
-2.98% < 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE: Despite a bounce attempt on Friday, price remained below all kma's, and no real momentum came into the market. We want to see Net A/D spike in the 70/80%, a jump in NNHL, daily momentum > 5 at least, and U/D volume in the same area. Until then, it only remains a technical bounce in a now-confirmed downtrend. If you decide to test it, I advise you to stay small, light & nimble. Cash is certainly a position right now. DEFENSE!
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
MMTW now prints a reversal at the 20% level, paired with #ES_F, #RTY_F & #NQ_F being at significant potential support making a technical/oversold bounce possible to start the week. Where we go after that, only the price will know.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Below 40%, but still room to go.
Rejected at the 18$ recent swing high pivot on Friday, which is a good first step, but I’ll want to see a break below 17$ this week.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Right at KEY DTL while building higher lows and above all kma's as the 10Y yield hangs near the highest level since 2007. Not implying anything, only noting pivotal areas at historical levels.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Above all kma’s and just below the historical 4.33% level.
Rejected at the 50dma and 1.54 level Friday, we need to follow through down from here…
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Big washout last week as we broke that recent daily structure and triggered a lot of forced selling as we retested that 25k area this week. If we can’t hold here, 24k is the next potential support.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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