Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 09/17
Expectation breaker, as last Thursday's proved to be a bull trap - Is the market rolling over... let's find out!
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES/ failed to follow through on last Thursday’s breakout attempt, as we sold off pretty hard Friday, negating all last week's positive building action.
We sliced right below all kma’s, 4534$, AVWAPs, and even recent lows UTL structure.
That’s a VERY ugly candle, engulfing most of last week’s range.
Especially with the weak internals, more downside pressure is likely ahead of us.
I’ll watch these levels as potential resistance in case we rally:
4534$
Current pullback swingH_AVWAP
50dma
I’ll watch these levels as potential support if we follow through lower:
4468$ level/area
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
Successful swing trading is all about putting the odds in your favor and trading with the wind at your back.
Which direction the wind is blowing now? 🤔
ST + LT momo downtrend
MCSI downtrend
PTHL (NNL) downtrend
Price downtrend and below all kma's
PRICE + MOMENTUM + BREADTH = downtrend = headwind for the long side.
PTMM is still at a RED market signal (🟥)
No new LONG exposure (short allowed)
Protect b/e
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Still stuck around 40%, but been rejected again at the 50dma.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Still around 33%, and below all kma’s.
We bounced right in that base area last Friday. This area is still holding, and I will watch if we breakout of that recent week’s channel and spike, or we retest that base area again.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
New low… this is constructive.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Closed above 4.33%…this is a headwind for tech & growth.
reclaimed the 1.52 base level and we’ll need to monitor if it was a shakeout & rip (U&R), or we re-attempt that breakdown, which would be very positive.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
We remain in no man’s land… Watching the $ 26834$ pivot on BTC
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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