Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/23
PTMM on a PULLBACK signal into a big FED/FOMC week.
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ tried to reclaim the 15741$ level on Friday, but got rejected and close below Thursday’s low pivot.
We closed below the 10dma again, but we are still above the 21dma and recent 15441$ base level. We are approaching potential support area, so this will be a critical week considering the mega-caps important earnings (MSFT, META & GOOGL), and the FED & FOMC on Wednesday.
16029$ for upside continuation.
15475$ & 21dma for potential support.
We are now 4.9% above the 50dma. (getting there…)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Reversal. Day #2.
2005$ for upside continuation.
1965$ & 10dma for potential support.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Reversal. Day #2.
4609$ for upside continuation.
4560$ & 10dma for potential support.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed FLAT (0.0%), and we closed below the 5dma but still above the 10dma.
Breadth was FLAT-ish (-17)
U/D volume at 0.33 (low for three days in a row)
MSCI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma (begin to round)
Daily MOMENTUM was FLAT (1.0) - 5/10-day ratio is in a downtrend and entering negative territory.
NNH is at +13 & PTHL is still in an UPTREND (NNH increased after Thursday's break)
5.62% > 50dma. (kma's catching up)
BOTTOMLINE:
Friday/OPEX was a flat day for PTMM, not giving much information on the next direction after Thursday's break. We'll know more next week as if we can bounce off the 10 or 21dma and continue that uptrend.
So far, I'm also seeing 5/10-day momentum ratio in downtrend and MSCI & PTHL starting to curl after extended runs. This week will be very telling if we finally get a real pullback or this uptrend have more gas in the tank.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Still in overbought territory after a reversal last week.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
MMFI, which is a longer term extension indicator is also in overbought area, meaning that the market is currently extended, ST & MT.
Bounced off the support area again on Friday. Still below all kma’s.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Bounced off the support area again on Friday. Still below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Inside day on Friday, and still below 3.859%.
New low again on Friday.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still struggling below the 21dma and can’t push off the range bottom area. It begins to look very weak and if break below that range, we could see selling pressure come in.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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