Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/25
Tomorrow is FOMC - pivotal day
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ tried to bounce today as we reclaimed the 10dma, but was rejected at the 15719$ recent swing high pivot.
After market hours, MSFT earnings weighted ont he market as we came back to retest the 10dma as we speak.
Levels to watch tomorrow after FOMC:
15719$ for upside continuation.
15441$ & 21dma for potential support.
We are now 5.5% above the 50dma. (Still extended)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Pullback day #4.
2005$ or mini-channel DTL for upside continuation. 1990$ for early entry.
1965$ & 10dma for potential support.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Pullback day #4.
4609$ for upside continuation.
4560$ & 10dma for potential support.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed FLAT-ish (+0.18%), and we closed again below the 5dma but still above the 10dma.
Breadth was UP (+50) but remained very muted after last Thursday’s distribution.
U/D volume at 0.98
MSCI DOWNTREND + ABOVE 10dma (confirmed yesterday’s flip, but still pretty flat.
Daily MOMENTUM was UP (1.2) - 5-day ratio is still negative & 10-day ratio is closing in fast.
NNH at +11 & PTHL is back in uptrend.
5.28% > 50dma. (kma's catching up, but still extended)
BOTTOMLINE:
The market is flat for the 3rd day in a row, clearly waiting for tomorrow’s earnings reaction & FOMC.
Tomorrow will be pivotal to confirm the next market move. Stay tuned!
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Still pulling back from the overbought area, and still elevated.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Still grinding higher in the overbought area.
Right at the squeezed 10/21dma.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
10dma retest as we follow through on the support area bounce.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Confirming the 3.859% breakout with the retest & follow-through today. Now above all kma’s.
Another new low, but up from open.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still sitting at the 50dma, but not showing much signs of life.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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