Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 09/13
Mega-caps hold major indices, while breadth continue to deteriorate.
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES/ reaction to CPI was mixed & volatile today. After an initial selloff, we found support at the swingL_AVWAP and 21dma before rallying to retest swingL_AVWAP and the 10dma.
We are stuck in that tight range, and the breakout will likely indicate the next market move.
I’ll watch a reclaim of these levels as bullish.
4534$
Current pullback swingH_AVWAP
50dma
I’ll watch a reclaim of these levels as bearish.
Today’s low & UTL
21dma
swingL_AVWAP
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
CPI is behind us, and we didn’t see the catalyst expected in the market internals. We now have a fragile and downtrending market.
MCSI is now in a confirmed DOWNTREND
Price is now below all kma’s and rejected on the retest
5-10 day ratio are both negative (ST_momo)
NNL accelerating
I wouldn’t say I like the picture we see right now, and it’s a CASH or SHORT market until we lose that RED signal.
DEFENSE-CAUTION
PTMM is at a RED market signal (🟥)
No new LONG exposure (short allowed)
Protect b/e
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
New structure low today.
Rejected at channel DTL & made a new low today. We are approaching that important base support area again. We’ll need to monitor closely as last time is acted as a PB catalyst for the market.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
New low - good action here, especially with a false breakout on 10Y.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
False breakout today, which is very constructive, but we’ll want to see a follow through tomorrow.
Great action here, and no red flag from Credit Spreads.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
We remain in no man’s land… Watching the $ 26834$ pivot on BTC
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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