Good evening folks!
Hope you had a great chop chop session again today. Can’t wait that the market decides on a direction, either up or down. (We would still prefer up, right? :))
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MARKET REVIEW
We’ve just had yet another very choppy & volatile session today. Market is searching direction and we can see the very intense battle between bulls & bears.
We are still in an indecision zone right. I want to see if the market will resume his rally by a breakout of the 50dma & 1888$ recent swing high or if we rollover from here.
Until then, I will still be pretty defensive and won’t increase my exposure too much until we confirm direction.
Upside:
On the upside, the ideal scenario would be a retake of the 50dma & 1888$ pivot (recent swing high).
We’ll have to be careful if that’s the case, because not far above is a very major potential resistance, 1915$ level from early 2022 consolidation.
Downside:
A close below Friday’s low @ 1848$ would really not be a good sign and might be indicative of more selling pressure ahead. That would also coincide with a 10dma retest.
MARKET BREADTH
NET new 1M & 52W high on the NYSE. Still healthy env.
McClellan back unchanged…
Stocks > 50dma increased by 4.5% today. Underneath breadth is good right now.
VIX confirming the recent swing low rejection along the DTL forming from May bottom. Volatility continues to comes out of the market…this is good sign.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Apart Solar sector that was very strong due to Biden executive order, this is a pretty uneventful day across the board. Nothing stands out.
Crude Oil (CL_F) Pulling back a bit today but still above all kma’s and was on low volume. We’ll see if they will support it tomorrow.
NG_F (Natural Gas) confirmed his WB breakout today with the DTL & 8.91$ b/o. We want follow through tomorrow.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
I got caught up in the action today and over traded a bit. I tried a couple positions during the day that all squatted. I also tried couples TZA market short for a potential market rollover but market simply refused to go in either direction. Overall a got not hurt, but a bit frustrating still.
New positions:
HP - As explained last night, I really loved that perfect BORS setup. It closed the day so strong (big RS all day too) that I decided to take the trade EOD @ 52.63$. 0.8% above the pivot, it’s far from being extended. If Oil is strong tomorrow, I want to see follow through on this name.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
DAILY FOCUSLIST
6 names in my FocusList tonight!
Surprisingly, I’ve got a saw a good amount of good setups tonight which I did not expect due to the weak market Friday and 2nd 50dma rejection. Anyway, the goal is to play the individual names and that could be indicative that the market will be stronger that I anticipated to open the week.
Tonight’s names are in these sectors:
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PT FocusList - TradingView shared link
CELH - Tried to breakout from the recent swing high pivot this morning but squatted back in. It held all important levels (66.40 & 10dma) so the BORS setup is still valid. Still looking at 70.25$ pivot for a potential entry.
ZIM - BORS setup is still valid after this morning squat as well. My alert is at the 68.47$ pivot.
MPLN - That’s the type of stocks & setups that you can be caught off guard with a big thrust up straight through the 5.43$ pivot. We also held 5.31 level which I had an alert on, so despite his false breakout this morning (like many names) we are still above key levels.
TMST - Tried to breakout through the DTL this morning but was not able to close above it. I’ll be looking now at the 24.69$ pivot for a breakout confirmation.
BTU - One of my top trade of 2021 is setting up again along the whole sector. I like how we break for all kma’s 2w ago and we came back to retest them while making higher lows in that tight consolidation. This is probably my best setup going into tomorrow and I’ll try to get a good entry as this name can be quite volatile especially around breakout levels.
VST - Classic breakout play here on this name. Despite the 2nd b/o level rejection on ER, I like how we tighten up really well making higher lows in the last few weeks. We are squeezing that 26.29$ recent swing high pivot by showing VCP characteristics.
RELATIVE STRENGTH
I’ll start tracking top fundamental stocks with highest 6 months Relative Strength, holding up the best short term. (40% 1M-RS + 60% 6M-RS ratio).
During market correction, you want to keep track of these names as they will be the one to watch when conditions improves.
Relative Strength 40/60 - TOP 20:
NINE,CRK,PBF,CVI,SD,EGY,SWN,PTEN,WTI,BORR,ESTE,SQM,AR,CPG,KOS,RRC,EQT,CAL,DINO,HRB
Relative Strength 1 Month - TOP 20:
BKSY,LPI,PLAB,NINE,WTI,CAL,SD,EGY,DLO,RELY,ESTE,CHPT,FRO,DOCN,CPG,YMM,JWN,M,SM,PBF
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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Which indicator do you use on tradingview to find Total Put/Call ratio and Eq Put/Call ratio? Thanks