Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/16
Market reversal, but the trend is strong.
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
The market was already ST extended with the breakout move, so the market could not push about Thursday’s high pivot and closed flat.
We are still in a solid uptrend, with a recent 15475$ base breakout, so I assume that we might simply pullback to retest the base area in the next few days to remove that ST excess and set up for an upside continuation move.
So far, the trend is strong, and it’s normal & healthy to see the market pulling back on ST extensions.
We are now 7.7% above the 50dma.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Energy & Financials were hit harder Friday, which impacted RTY more than NQ/ES due to its weighting.
We are in the process of retesting the base area.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM stayed on a full GREEN market signal (🟩)
Price closed DOWN (-1.46%) and retraced back a bit after being ST extended. We are still above the 5dma.
Breadth was NEGATIVE, but not distribution characteristics (-332)
U/D volume at 0.69 (decent for a down day)
MSCI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma (new high)
Daily MOMENTUM was WEAK (0.1)
NNH is at +24 & PTHL is still in an UPTREND
6.44% > 50dma. (extended!) (that's a good first step, but we need to cool off more)
BOTTOMLINE:
Friday was the first negative day after a five positive day's series. We were really ST extended, as pointed out Thursday and this pullback action was due. Now we'll see if selling is picking up and how things are holding in the next few days.
So far, the trend remains firmly up, and today's negative breadth was not enough to turn PTMM on a pullback signal.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Friday marked a reversal right into the overbought area. Let’s see if it was only a pause, and we get climatic & overbought, or we see the excess being removed by a couple of days pullback. (healthy)
Below all kma’s and inside support area.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Downtrend below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Right at potential support. DTL & structure retest as we reclaimed the 21dma. Watching for the uptrend to resume.
Possible 1.54 level reclaim.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Rejected the 31443$ base level and now trading below the 21dma. Not exactly the type of move you want to see on a breakout attempt.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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