Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/20
Heavy rotation out of tech & mega-caps, as PTMM flipped to a PULLBACK signal.
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ was extended, and we were waiting for that pullback…we’ll, there it is!
We’ve lost 2.30%, undercutting the 15741$ level, and 10dma to close just above the recent base area. Volume was also above average and increasing.
Nasdaq got hit harder due to mega-caps action & earnings (TSLA & NFLX), along with tech & discretionary heavy rotation.
16029$ for upside continuation.
15475$ & 21dma for potential support.
We are now 5.9% above the 50dma. (getting there…)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Reversal. Day #1.
2005$ for upside continuation.
1965$ & 10dma for potential support.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Reversal. Day #1.
4609$ for upside continuation.
4560$ & 10dma for potential support.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is on a GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed DOWN (-1.98%), and we closed below the 5dma but still above the 10dma.
Breadth was NEGATIVE (-410) - Distribution day
U/D volume at 0.09 (very, very low)
MSCI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma (new high)
Daily MOMENTUM was WEAK (0.09)
NNH is at +8 & PTHL is still in an UPTREND
5.85% > 50dma. (extended, but getting there)
BOTTOMLINE:
After the breadth weakening for the last three days, as noted last night, we finally started that pullback we talked about for some time. Today showed heavy selling and is considered a distribution day for sure—shallow U/D volume, daily Momentum, etc.
We broke below the 5dma today, but we remain above the 10dma. Extension-wise, we are still extended from the 50dma, but we are getting there if we can have 1 or 2 more down days, plus some sideways action to create a nice long setup.
We’ll make sure to follow the action day by day but in the meantime not much to do until the PULLBACK signal gets off.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
We did not pullback very much as we are still in the overbought area even after today’s move.
Reclaimed the 21dma, but not really spiked either. This is a good sign for the overall market.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Bounce off recent structure, but still below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Big reversal off the support area & DTL today. We reclaimed all kma’s, but not the 3.859% level yet.
Did not move at all today, which is a good sign that we’re seeing a normal reaction & pullback right now. No risk is being priced in for now.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC was surprisingly strong today despite that growth/tech selloff. A good sign, IMO.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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