Good evening folks,
I have a good feeling…let’s see if we can confirm it ;)
✌️🛡️
MARKET REVIEW
Starting from tonight, I'll be tracking $RTY (Russel 2k small cap index) instead of $NQ in the Newsletter. Why? Well, small-caps are leading over $NQ & $SPX recently and overall better represent our holdings at PrimeTrading.
Some key clues of why it’s leading right now:
RTY is still within its recent support area
Is above recent swing low pivot (1904$)
Closed above 21dma
3% above 50dma (NQ 1% above)
Ho, and the price is 4 digits instead of 5…way quicker to write the newsletter (😂 - I’m kidding)
So, RTY held yesterday low and was also able to close back in the support area (>1919$) and above the 21dma. This is very constructive action as in the last 3 days, we created an intraday inverse H&S setup.
We are now working inside that mini-channel DTL that we might breakout tomorrow.
What are the levels I’m watching on RUSSEL tomorrow?
On the upside, we want to see a reclaim of the 1951$ level, a mini-channel DTL breakout, and also a close above the 5/10dma. This would be the most bullish scenario IMO.
On the downside, we want to hold the 21dma that we reclaimed today and also close above the 1904$ prior low pivot.
MARKET BREADTH
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma) - Held the 66.60$ level once again today. We are building a small consolidation and we should see which way we breakout in the next few days.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma) - Finding support right in that area I talked about for a few days now. This could be a good ST spot for a market reversal.
VIX - Super constructive action on VIX. Big rejection of the UTL, 24.33$ level, AND also the 50dma. That's really a big confluence of rejection.
DXY (US $) - US$ looks toppy to me with that failed reclaim and lower low today.
US10Y (US 10Y bond yield) - 10Y breaking out…that’s a red flag for sure, but growth stocks still bounced today, so we’ll see who’s right at the end. Equities or Bonds?
US2Y (US 2Y bond yield) - 2Y breaking out too…that’s a red flag for sure, but growth stocks still bounced today, so we’ll see who’s right at the end. Equities or Bonds?
IEI/HYG (Credit Spread) - Another down day and now back at the 21dma. Still in the potential resistance area.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin) - Still flagging
NG_F (Natural Gas) - Pretty flat day, but we did not break down after yesterday's false breakout and closed above the 10dma, which is a positive. Tomorrow we should get more information
CL_F (Crude Oil) - Crude Oil continued higher and broke the recent swing high @ 95.05$. Approaching the 50dma and still in potential resistance area.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
(SMH) Semis - Flat day probably waiting for NVDA earnings tonight, on which they were down 4% after market hours. We could see some more weakness in the semi’s space tomorrow.
(TAN) Solar - Big reversal off the 21dma for solar. We reclaimed all kma’s and tried to reclaim 86.01$ pivot as well. Very positive reversal on volume.
(XBI) Biotech - Confirming the 21dma reversal today with follow-through action. Also seeing many biotech stocks action strong today.
Let’s look at our 6 other sectors that just broke out of stage 1 bases
(CIBR) Cybersecurity - Flat day, still above stage 1 base breakout
(FDN) Internet - Still in the stage 1 support area. Have to hold here.
(IGV) Software - Still in the stage 1 support area. Have to hold here.
(XME) Metals & Mining - One of the strongest sectors out of the TOP 3 along XLE. Confirm potential continuation today with the mini-channel DTL breakout.
(XRT) Retail - Back in stage 1 potential support area & 50dma. Have to hold here.
(XLF) Financial - Holding the 50dma.
(XLE) Energy - Follow through on that breakout. One of the strongest sector today again.
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS:
Overall, I am very positive about this current market. RTY found support at the 21dma and a pretty important support area today. We are looking at a potential DTL breakout tomorrow which could confirm the continuation higher on the indices.
Above that, the conviction comes from the leading stocks acting very strong and holding their breakouts such as CELH and many more. ST & MT breadth is also in logical areas for a reversal after the recent market pullback. Everything seems to lineup, as long we don’t get some curve ball on the economic news side.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
SIGA,AEHR,SWAV,TH,CELH,STEM,ENPH,CPRX,VLD,BBIO,NFE,NOVA,SPWR,MRSN,SMCI,CEIX,SWIR,ARLP,CSIQ,PBF,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RES,AMR,HCC,DK,MRO,ERF,DVAX,MGM,DRH,TELL,LBRT,BHF,ENLC,SWAV,LC,TRGP,SLDP,WTI,MPC,FANG,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
SIGA,CPRX,AEHR,CELH,MRSN,TH,SWAV,ENPH,STEM,SPWR,NFE,PLUG,CSIQ,SMCI,NOVA,VLD,BBIO,SWIR,WOLF,PRVA,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
SIGA,YPF,WTI,FUBO,AEHR,STEM,CORZ,DEN,SPWR,VLD,AZUL,CPRX,PLUG,WFRD,BRY,CELH,NOVA,CLNE,WOLF,CSIQ,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
TH,AEHR,MRSN,SIGA,CPRX,AGEN,STEM,VLD,CELH,BFLY,SWAV,RXRX,PRVA,GTLB,ELF,BKSY,ENPH,CHS,HIMS,BEAM,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
TH,SIGA,CEIX,STNG,NFE,MRSN,CRK,CPRX,PBF,ENPH,EQT,ARLP,CELH,STKL,HRB,LNTH,CVI,SWAV,DCPH,AEHR,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Tomorrow’s game plan:
I am fully invested right now and will be in a position management focus in the next few days. If a position doesn’t act well, shows a red flag, or hit a SL, then I will be looking to open a new position from the FL.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
ENPH 🎖️
One of the leading stocks of the past few weeks following its PEG. I started building my position today on the 10dma reclaim after confirming the support area reversal. I would be looking to add to this position on either the DTL or the 305.88$ pivot breakout.
Alert - DTL + 305.88$
TH 🎖️
A name that shake me out yesterday on that nasty reversal, but acted very good today with a reversal and reclaim of the 14.08$ pivot. A breakout of the 14.86$ pivot would certainly be the last chance to get in before this leave the station. Still a leading stock IMO.
UPDATE: We retested the 14.08$ level today which gave me a nice spot to initiate a position. The 14.86$ pivot is still in play and offers a good entry as well.
Alert - 14.86$
ON
A recent semiconductor leading name that is now building VERY CONSTRUCTIVE action right above the recent base breakout area. I also like the current higher lows right at that level. That’s a name that I am trying to get in for a while (very good fundamentals) so I will put a stop order on this name tomorrow on this high conviction setup.
UPDATE: NVDA earnings can impact ON which is in the same sector. If that’s the case and we gap down, that 71.98$ pivot reclaim would give a very good entry.
Alert - 71.98$
STKL
A name that I traded last month is now setting up again after the recent PEG. We drifted down on low volume down to the 21dma. If we breakout of the DTL and also the 10.56$ pivot, we would confirm potential continuation higher.
Alert - 10.56$
ATI 🎖️
Materials company setting up a perfect BO10PB setup now right above the recent base breakout area. I like when the stock is so powerful that it doesn’t even test back that b/o area. I am looking at the recent swing high 32.88$ for a potential entry.
Alert - 32.88$
SLCA
Super tight action out of the larger wedge breakout 2 weeks ago. We retested the DTL & recent structure to form a WBPB setup. A breakout of 15.60$ pivot would confirm potential continuation higher.
Alert - 15.60$
GFF
Digesting is recent gains out of the base breakout. We are building a nice base at the 10dma, which we could bounce from and confirm continuation with the 33.60$ pivot breakout. I also like the volume profile and very tight day in that consolidation.
Alert - 33.60$
HDSN
Sitting near 52w high and just held the 21dma with a support area retest 2 days ago. We have breakout of the DTL today and I will be looking at the recent swing high pivot for an entry.
Alert - 10.18$
STEM 🎖️
I really like this name fundamental and also the technical setups we see right now. We broke out of the stage 1 base on a 100% move in less than 2 weeks, then consolidated on low volume back to the 21dma which we just bounced from today. This could be a potential big winner just coming out of a stage 1 base breakout retest like that…on a huge growth story behind it.
Alert - DTL
🎖️ = Alex’s highest conviction setups
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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