Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/08
Pullback continues, with an intraday oversold bounce. Can we follow through tomorrow?
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From August 13 to 18, there will be no daily reports as I will be on vacation without internet access.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
ES bounced from the 4493$ base area again today after making a lower low as what would be a shakeout if we follow through on that bounce tomorrow. The potential rangebound/choppy market between 4551/4493$ until CPI on Thursday is gaining additional weight with today’s action.
We have a lot of overhead resistance ahead if we want to follow through AGAIN tomorrow, as we’re heading right into:
high_AVWAP
10dma
21dma
4551$ structure area
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4493$ base level/area: strong support so far, on watch.
50dma: -4.20% from the top (1.3% from here)
4303$ (would be around 200d/30wma) : -7.13% (4.2%)
4190$ recent base: -9.77% (7.0%)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is in an LT UPTREND (🟩) on ST/MT PULLBACK (🟥) signal.
The pullback continues, with another day of negative breadth. We saw potential oversold & supportive action today as we came to retest the 50dma on a -550 strong negative reading this morning before bouncing with power this afternoon.
This bounce alone is not an indication of a bottom or technical bounce. We need to see a strong breadth thrust tomorrow to confirm it, but I like seeing that kind of action on kma’s retest after ST oversold conditions.
Remember that Thursday is the CPI inflation report, so I doubt seeing that breadth thrust tomorrow…but we never know!
The pullback is still in play based on the following:
MCSI is in a downtrend and flipped below the 10dma signal.
ST_momentum was already negative, not MT_momentum flipped negative on Friday.
The price is below 10/21dma.
Some constructive actions I see right now:
MT_momentum made a higher low, with 1M gainers increasing for the second day.
That 50dma flush & bounce on ST oversold conditions
The pullback continues to play out, and until we see MSCI & momentum curve back up, along with price reclaiming kma’s…we’ll remain in a low probability market.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Pullback continues, and we are now pusing below the 50% level.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Below the 10wma as we continue to move lower & away from the overbought area.
VIX tried to breakout to a new high this morning, but we quickly faded that move to finally close red from the open and back in that structure area.
I like today’s action, especially if we can follow through tomorrow and Thursday after CPI. That’s the high volatility action we usually see at A pullback bottom.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
DTL rejection and still back around kma’s. Good to see volatility in bond market dampening.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
4.09% rejection continues as we could not follow through on the bounce attempt. We are breaking below the 10dma.
Still below the 21dma and 1.54 level. Price action looks constructive, and no red flags in this market from what I see here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC is finally moving as we pushed above the 10/21dma and retested the 50dma and recent swing high pivot. We need to follow through above that 30K pivot to confirm the upside continuation.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily & weekly Focuslist (POSITION+SWING), including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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