Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/24
NVDA earnings reaction was not enough, as the market being rejection at key overhead resistance - What effect will Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole have tomorrow?
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Well, today was not the action we wanted to see…
As highlighted last night, we were getting into the crunchy, with the high_AVWAP, 21/50dma & 4493$ structure level all stacked together as potential overhead resistance.
Following the NVDA earnings catalyst, ES came to retest exactly these levels and got rejected VERY HARD.
We expected that rejection, but the selling was way stronger than anticipated.
We sliced right below the 10dma and the 4419$ structure level to close on a bearish outside day. With that rollover, the ST/MT trend remains DOWN, and we have to assume that this pullback has more to go before we find the bottom.
Anything can happen with Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow, but things are not looking great with today’s rejection.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4341$ recent support structure
4312$ level
30wma/200dma
4221/4259$ 2022 important base structure area
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM)
PTMM is on an LT GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed DOWN (-1.68%) and below all kma’s.
Breadth was DOWN and strong (-425) - Negative breadth thrust
U/D volume at 0.60 (weak)
MCSI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma (accelerated again)
Daily MOMENTUM was DOWN (0.06 - VERY weak)
5 & 10-day ratio both curling back down.
NNL is at -9.
-3.57% < 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE:
After seeing constructive signs in the last few days, especially yesterday, the market got rejected hard at overhead resistance.
UNLESS WE REACT WELL TO JACKSON HOLE TOMORROW, every ST/MT/LT indicator will resume its downtrend.
If nothing changes tomorrow, we’ll remain on a PULLBACK signal, which means no new long exposure is allowed.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Rejected at 10dma and back inside the oversold area.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Reversal and new low.
VIX found support in that 16$ support area, before reclaiming all kma's AND the important 17$ base level. Not looking good here.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Failed breakout or retest of structure & DTL before a bounce?
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Supported at previous swing high pivot area. Back above all kma's and waiting just below 4.33% historical level before Jackson Hole.
Credit Spreads bouncing from the base area and reclaiming the 10/21dma. Still below that 1.54 area that would really mean trouble.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Not able to follow through today, as we are retesting the base area. It's still below all kma’s.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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