Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 12/28
The downtrend is confirmed once again!
Good evening folks!
I hope you are still enjoying a good time with your family. Trading is not a priority right now, but we must still do our homework and stay up to date ;)
Alex ✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
We followed through with the 10dma rejection of yesterday, and we closed below both the current consolidation UTL and Friday’s low pivot.
Things are not looking good…
We are still below ALL KMA’S and in a downtrend, so be careful on the long side until we confirm an actual trend change, with AT LEAST a higher low on /ES.
On the upside,
At this point, only a clear reclaim of the 3855$ level and the 10dma would be constructive as not being a normal reaction in this downtrend.
On the downside,
We do have the 3803$ level from Dec. 20th low for potential support. Otherwise, the next area of interest is 3735/3780$.
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
Ok, things really changed, and the market internals really confirmed that we are still in a downtrend and the path of least resistance is down.
The concerning action…
The 10Y yield continues to spike.
The VIX could not confirm the reversal and reclaimed the pivot, 10 & 21dma.
XLE, XME & GDX were very strong in the last weeks and cracked today. I don’t see any leadership right now in this market, and this might be dangerous.
SMH, TAN & XBI - 3 significant sectors are very weak and slicing through support like butter
ES_F FOLLOWED-THROUGH on the 10dma & 3900$ rejection today.
Breadth is accelerating on the downside again.
The recent leaders continue to be sold into strength.
We are still in a strong downtrend.
Market health & Trend indicators:
LT SIGNAL: downtrend (red) + BELOW 50dma = BEAR market (🟥)
MT SIGNAL: downtrend (red) + BELOW 10dma = Downtrend (🟥)
Tomorrow's economic news:
Gameplan:
Today, I followed the trend on the UTL & last Friday’s low pivot breakdown and started to play the short side again with a position in DAL & SPXS.
If we follow through tomorrow and I increase my cushion in my two existing positions, I might add one additional short position.
Better play this market pretty carefully as we are still in the last week of the year, with very low liquidity…so the moves can be swift on both sides.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Market Breadth & Internals
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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