Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 06/27
The market bounced and making a reversal attempt. Can we follow through?
Good evening guys,
Enjoy tonight’s letter!
Alex ✌️
PrimeTrading is an equity swing trading community based on DISCORD to learn & trade alongside experienced traders.
✅ See how I execute intraday while I share my trades live.
✅ Alex's daily market commentary, Portfolio updates, trade explanations, and daily FocusList.
✅ Share & Discuss potential trade ideas with an amazing like-minded community
✅ Talk Macro Economy, Cryptocurrencies & much more!
✅ Talk about mental game & psychology to evolve as a trader!
✅ Education & mentoring from Alex & experienced traders. (10 Experienced Traders team)
✅ Q&A meetings & LIVE sessions
Improve as a trader with a risk management first approach while working directly with me intraday.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Strong bounce off the 21dma with a current pullback channel breakout attempt. We reclaimed the 10dma on that move and closed above all kma’s.
Tomorrow we’ll want to see a follow-through action to confirm that move.
We are now 7.5 above the 50dma. We are still extended, but getting there.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
RTY confirmed yesterday’s support area bounce, as we followed through with a strong move above all kma’s today.
Let’s see if it sticks.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Strong bounce off the 21dma with a current pullback channel breakout attempt. We reclaimed the 10dma on that move and closed above all kma’s.
Tomorrow we’ll want to see a follow-through action to confirm that move.
PT_UL BREADTH & INTERNALS
Price closed UP (+1.91%) and reclaimed ALL KMA's.
Breadth was POSITIVE and showed thrust characteristics (+572)
U/D volume at 19.35
MSCI downtrend + BELOW 10dma. (will need more to turn)
MOMENTUM flipped back up on all TF. The 10-day ratio is back positive.
NNH at +2, flat for the day.
Bottomline:
PT MODEL = GREEN market signal (🟩) on PULLBACK (🟥)
Today was a constructive bounce after seven days of pullback already. Despite seeing a strong breadth, reclaim of all kma's, and momentum picking up, we are still on a PULLBACK signal and will probably need another strong follow-through day tomorrow to get back to a full GREEN market signal.
Internals
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
We remain below the weekly DTL but are certainly in a pivotal area.
Break back below 1.56. Good!
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Recent pullback channel breakout attempt. Let’s see if we can follow through and try that new high breakout.
SECTORS ANALYSIS
Small & Mid-cap led Large cap today (good!)
Recent leading sectors were leading today, confirming the pullback reversal attempt. XLY XLK & XLC.
The only red sector was Healthcare XLV today. Lagging on that market bounce.
Themes & Subsectors
Airlines (JETS) were powerful today and made a new high.
Semi's, Blockchain, Online Retail & Homebuilders are top themes today.
Gaming & eSports in the top 10, and less than 4% from 52w high, adding conviction to DKNG trade.
DAILY LEADERS (top10)
Blockchain Technology BLOK
Airlines JETS
Semiconductors PSI
Homebuilders XHB
Auto Manufacturers CARZ
Online Retail IBUY
Gaming & eSports ESPO
Social Media SOCL
Autonomous Vehicles IDRV
Media PBS
WEEKLY LEADERS (top10)
Homebuilders XHB
Airlines JETS
Semiconductors PSI
Transport IYT
Shipping SEA
Blockchain Technology BLOK
Online Retail IBUY
Steel Production SLX
Retail XRT
Social Media SOCL
% from 52w LOW (top10)
Semiconductors PSI
Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
Social Media SOCL
Homebuilders XHB
Blockchain Technology BLOK
Oil & Gas Equip. & Services PXJ
Internet PNQI
Gaming & eSports ESPO
Copper Producers COPX
Robotics ROBO
% from 52w HIGH (top10)
Environmental Services EVX
Homebuilders XHB
Semiconductors PSI
Airlines JETS
Aerospace & Defense PPA
Transport IYT
Internet PNQI
Luxury LUX
Smart Grid GRID
Liesure & Entertainment PEJ
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors: Nice bounce today as we’re now retesting the 151.71$ prior swing high, and also right at the current PB DTL. Tomorrow is critical to see if we can push and confirm that bounce or fade and rollover lower.
IGV Software: Also bounced today, but still inside week and need to push above that DTL tomorrow.
ITB Home Builders: New high for this leading sector.
XLY Consumer discretionary: Nice bounce from yesterday’s shakeout below last week’s low pivot. We are still inside the previous week's range, so we need to push above 167.87$ to confirm an upside continuation higher.
FOCUS & LEADERS LIST
TPR - TAPESTRY, INC. (WBPB) - Alert: 44.07, SL: 41.89
Tapestry, Inc. provides luxury accessories and branded lifestyle products in the United States, Japan, Greater China, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman.
Leading sector (Consumer Discretionary XLY, but not leading THEME - Luxury LUX )
10/30wma aligned, squeezed & uptrend
It just bounced from 10+30wma, but still not extended.
72% prior uptrend
5 weeks base & consolidation following the weekly DTL breakout
Higher lows and surfing the kma’s before the potential breakout.
1.28 U/D ratio.
HUBS - HUBSPOT, INC. (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 530.69, SL: 500.01
HubSpot, Inc. provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Leading sector (Technology XLK + Software PSJ)
Lot of RS last week. (compared to market + group)
10/30wma aligned & uptrend
Still a bit extended from the 10wma. (6/7%)
92% prior uptrend
3 weeks consolidation only.
Higher lows in last 2 weeks.
1.58 U/D ratio.
DDOG - DATADOG, INC. (BO21PB) - Alert: 97.98, SL: 92.7
Datadog, Inc. provides a monitoring and analytics platform for developers, information technology operations teams, and business users in the cloud in North America and internationally. The company's SaaS platform integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, log management, and security monitoring to provide real-time observability of its customer’s technology stack.
Leading sector (Technology XLK + Software PSJ)
Clear recent structure acting as support
10/30wma aligned & uptrend. 30wma is just turning up though.
Still, a bit extended from the 10wma. (6/7%)
65% prior uptrend
Three weeks consolidation only.
No higher lows, but last week was possibly a shakeout.
1.35 U/D ratio.
AEHR - AEHR TEST SYSTEMS (BORL) - Alert: 41.41, SL: 36.53
Aehr Test Systems provides test systems for burning-in and testing logic, optical, and memory integrated circuits worldwide.
Leading sector (Technology XLK + Semiconductors PSI )
Clear recent base structure acting as support
10/30wma aligned & uptrend.
Still, a bit extended from the 10wma. (13%) But it’s the nature of the stock.
455% prior uptrend (LT) & 91% recent leg (ST)
Two weeks consolidation only.
1.45 U/D ratio.
RMBS - RAMBUS INC. (wBO10PB) - Alert: 630.72, SL: 598.42
Rambus Inc. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Europe, Canada, Singapore, China, and internationally. The company offers DDR memory interface chips, including DDR5, DDR4, and DDR3 memory interface chips, to module manufacturers and OEMs.
Leading sector (Technology XLK + Semiconductors PSI + Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ )
10/30wma aligned & uptrend.
It retested its 10wma today and bounced aggressively.
235% prior uptrend.
Four weeks of consolidation in a tight channel.
1.73 U/D ratio.
INDICES/SECTORS:
IHI - iShares:US Med Dev ETF (BREAKOUT) - Alert: 56.35, SL: 55.01
(TMO ABT MDT ISRG EW SYK BSX DXCM BDX IDXX)
Stage 1 base breakout.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
SDGR,MARA,IMGN,MDB,SMCI,SOFI,RDFN,VRT,ELF,PLTR,NVTS,APP,EXAS,CELH,EXPI,NVDA,XP,IOT,MSTR,UBER,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RCL,ELF,NCLH,CCL,CELH,TMDX,DT,WNC,HTGC,SDGR,WYNN,EXAS,FUTU,CRSP,ALGM,ARRY,CSIQ,ALB,MGM,PANW,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
IMGN,MARA,CCL,MDB,SDGR,SMCI,RDFN,RCL,EXPI,APP,PLTR,VRT,XP,NVTS,SOFI,IOT,NVDA,RIOT,TSLA,SGH,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
SOFI,MARA,CCL,GTLS,IMGN,COHR,GTLB,NCLH,BRZE,DAL,FIVN,GH,TSLA,JBLU,COIN,PLAY,RCL,IOT,EXPI,IEP,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
IMGN,SMCI,XP,MARA,MDB,APP,PLTR,CCL,VRT,EXPI,RCL,SGH,SDGR,CELH,CFLT,BILL,NCLH,RILY,NVDA,LEGN,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
IMGN,MARA,SMCI,RIOT,APP,NVDA,RDFN,TGTX,PLTR,NVTS,SDGR,MDB,CCL,META,DKNG,RCL,VRT,EXPI,XP,TSLA,
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS & GAMEPLAN
The market tried to bounce today, supported by a breadth thrust. Despite this being very constructive and exactly what we wanted to see for the last seven days, I still want to see a confirmation of that bounce attempt with a follow-through tomorrow.
If we confirm the pullback reversal here and breakout to new highs, this is certainly a great opportunity we don’t want to miss. This is the real first pullback since the general market broke out of stage 1 bases end of May (NQ) / early June (ES).
GAME PLAN:
Exposure model = GREEN market signal (🟩) on PULLBACK (🟥).
I opened up some exposure on that reversal attempt today as I see that pullback as an amazing opportunity. Tomorrow I’ll want to see how my new position reacts before adding new exposure.
I want to add another 20% exposure if the market follows through on good breadth tomorrow and my new positions allows me to.
Economic news/events:
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)