Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/07
Indices bounced, without breadth & strength
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
ES bounced from the 4493$ base area as we opened the week, and the potential rangebound/choppy market between 4551/4493$ until CPI on Thursday is gaining weight with today’s action.
We have a lot of overhead resistance ahead if we want to follow through tomorrow, as we’re heading right into:
high_AVWAP
10dma
21dma
4551$ structure area
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
50dma: -4.20% from the top (1.3% from here)
4303$ (would be around 200d/30wma) : -7.13% (4.2%)
4190$ recent base: -9.77% (7.0%)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is on a GREEN market (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥) signal.
Another day of weak breadth that failed to confirm the bounce on the indices. On A pullback bottom, we want to see a strong breadth thrust to confirm market participation and buying interest. That’s not what we saw today, making me doubt it’s the pullback low we saw today.
The pullback is still in play based on the following:
MCSI is in a downtrend and flipped below the 10dma signal.
ST_momentum was already negative, not MT_momentum flipped negative on Friday.
The price is below 10/21dma.
The pullback continues to play out, and until we see MSCI & momentum curve back up, along with price reclaiming kma’s…we’ll remain in a low probability market.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Pullback continues and we are now below the 50% level.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Below the 10wma as we continue to move lower & away from the overbought area.
Good action on the VIX today, as we rejected that 17.08$ level and got back in that recent support area. We remain above all kma’s, and we’ll have to see how we handled a retest of the 10/21dma.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
DTL rejection and still back around kma’s. Good to see volatility in bond market dampening.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
4.09% reclaim, as we didn’t follow through on Friday failed breakout. I’m watching the recent high pivot for an upside continuation breakout or a rejection, or even a lower high. We remain above all kma’s for now…
Still below the 21dma and 1.54 level. Price action looks constructive, and no red flag in this market from what I see here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still holding well the 28478$ level & 10wma, but not much direction for the past two weeks. Almost too tight for too long now. We’ll see this week if we push or break.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily & weekly Focuslist (POSITION+SWING), including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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