Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 09/04
Strong market bounce last week as we're coming out of correction - Can we follow through and push to new highs?
Good evening!
I hope you had an amazing long weekend :). Now, let’s prepare for the week ahead!
Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
The market retested and rejected the 4551$ resistance level again last Friday as we unsuccessfully tried to make a new high.
We remain in that 4493/4551$ range, as we still see healthy digestion of the recent move.
A retest of the 4493$ level and 50dma before a 4551$ area breakout re-attempt would be the ideal bullish scenario I’ll watch this week.
If we can’t hold that support, we’ll have to look for a deeper pullback around the 4440/4450$ area.
We’re certainly in a key moment right now; if we reject these levels hard, we might look at a lower high from July’s top. But if we resume higher, that correction might be behind us with more upside on the indexes.
The next days are critical, IMO.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM)
PTMM is back at a FULL LT GREEN market signal (🟩)
Price closed UP (+1.21%) - a strong move
Breadth was UP (+395) - near breadth thrust
U/D volume at 0.93 - flat
MCSI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma - We followed through on the cross
Daily MOMENTUM was UP (+4.0) - strong
5 & 10-day uptrend continues
NNH is at +43 - picking up
+1.50% > 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE:
The market continues to show strong & constructive action from the recent market correction, as we remain on a FULL GREEN market signal.
With seven up days in a row, a pullback or consolidation would be expected soon to digest that recent move and build momentum for the next leg up. That would only be normal & healthy.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
We broke to a new high at 56% above the 20d. Still in the middle ground and not yet ST overbought.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Still only at 45%.
We are getting right in that 12.50/13$ base area. This is a spot to look for a potential market pullback.
If we breakdown from that area, then this market is really switching gears.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Friday was a key break for the bond market volatility index. 99.33, January bottom, is the next level to watch.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Important bounce at the 21dma on Friday, we now enter the previous structure retest that might act as resistance for a retest & rejection scenario.
Hanging at 1.52 year low level, as we are below all kma's and have been rejected hard on last week's bounce attempt. IF we breakout from that level, that's a big RISK-ON signal for me.
While "junk" / high yields bond confirmed the breakout of their stage 1 base last week after a 6 weeks retest flag. That's key.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Back at the base level range area. No man’s land.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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