Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 11/29
Market waiting on tomorrow's Jerome Powell speech
Good evening folks!
That was a very choppy & volatile day, as expected…the market is waiting for tomorrow before picking a side.
Let’s get ready for both outcomes following Jerome Powell's speech!
Alex ✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Today, we lost the 3964$ level right at the open but found support pretty quickly, and the market remained very choppy and range-bound the rest of the day. We finally finished the day just below 3964$, in a pretty indecisive action.
Today didn’t give much information about indices price action other than knowing that the 3964$ level will be an important pivot point to watch tomorrow.
This PB could be the retest of the mini-channel DTL & 3964$ base level…or it can be the start of the end of this bear market rally. Which one it is? I don’t know, and we’ll let price push us in the good direction.
On the upside, I want to see the current pullback channel DTL breakout to confirm the potential bounce off 3964$. Then a good push to reclaim 4016$ would be very constructive if we react positively to JP's speech tomorrow.
On the downside, I want to see 3964$ hold, but if we don’t, I would like to see the 21dma act as support again. Again, that 3964$ level HAS to hold if we want to keep the ST uptrend alive. Otherwise, I would consider a rollover or at least a more important PB.
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover important parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
✅ My takeaways, including my trading gameplan for tomorrow
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Market Breadth & Internals
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
Today didn’t give much new information except for a few things I noted:
Some leading names held pretty well
Small-cap indices (RTY) were positive all day and showed very good RS
VIX was NOT able to close above the resistance area & 10dma
Breadth was positive on the day
ES_F kinda held the 3964$ area
None of the names in my short Focuslist worked today; that’s a tell.
DXY & 10Y are NOT looking too good with follow-through on yesterday’s bounces
We have Jerome Powell speaking TOMORROW at 13:30 (EST), so make sure to control your exposure and stop loss accordingly. The recent day’s action indicates that this will be a piece of important news, and the market is waiting on it to pick a direction. Meaning this will get volatile.
I am not ready to throw the towel and call this bear market rally over yet, but we MIGHT have seen day 1 of it if we follow through in the next few days. It ALL depends on the market's REACTION to JP tomorrow.
Gameplan:
With Jerome Powell's speech tomorrow, we’ll probably see very choppy action to start the day up until 13:30, so I won’t engage in any trade before that.
Following the speech, all will depend on the reaction.
IF ES_F can breakout off that channel DTL & reclaim 4016$…THEN, long side
IF ES_F loses the 3964$ level and undercut the 21dma…THEN, short side
We have to respect that potential rollover but, at the same time, remain OPEN-MINDED to both scenarios.
If we get a good reaction tomorrow, we must USE PROGRESSIVE EXPOSURE. build one position at a time and use that cushion to finance the risk of the next one!
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
LONG FOCUSLIST
ZETA 8.56, LSCC 68.12, CAR 232.10+DTL,
ZETA 🎖️
Strong software name that I have been following for a while. We retested the stage 1 base and broke that recent channel DTL. We retested it today along the 21dma. If the market bounce and is good tomorrow, this might be a potential play on the long side.
UPDATE: Probably my favorite setup right now. I love how we build that handle right at the 21dma and just above the stage 1 base area. Amazing RS today too.
ALERT: 8.56$
STOP LOSS: 8.29$ / LOD
LSCC
Tech name showing amazing fundamentals and just broke out of the stage 1 base following earnings. We are consolidating at the 10dma in a very healthy way on a very low volume.
I’m watching that low pivot for an early entry of the 10dma.
ALERT: 68.12$
STOP LOSS: 66.55$ / LOD
CAR 🎖️
After the recent stage 1 base breakout, we are flagging and consolidating well at the 21dma. Both the price & volume contracts, and at this point, we push or break.
I watch the DTL for an entry or the recent swing high pivot.
ALERT: 232.10$ + DTL
STOP LOSS: 218.01$ / LOD
SHORT FOCUSLIST
WBD 10.52+UTL, PAYO 5.18, PL 5.08, ABNB 93.92,
WBD
Retest of the base structure yesterday and rejected it along the 21dma today on increasing volume.
UPDATE: Was not able to follow-through, will depend on JP tomorrow.
ALERT: 10.52$ + UTL
STOP LOSS: 11.59$ / HOD
PAYO
Another stock that had a bad earnings reaction and never was able to reclaim the 10dma. We retested the recent base structure and rejected it with a lower high today. Recent swing low as an entry.
UPDATE: Inside day, waiting for direction, but the setup is still active.
ALERT: 5.18$
STOP LOSS: 5.62$ / HOD
PL
See annotated chart for the setup. WBPB with a 50dma rejection.
UPDATE: Inside day, waiting for direction, but the setup is still active.
ALERT: 5.08$
STOP LOSS: 5.45$ / HOD
ABNB
We broke the larger channel on the last earnings and went to retest it and the 50dma before rejecting it again 2w ago. We rallied in the 10dma from the lows but got rejected there pretty quickly. I would play the recent swing low to confirm the BO10PB setup.
UPDATE: Inside day, waiting for direction, but the setup is still active.
ALERT: 93.92$
STOP LOSS: 98.83$ / HOD
🎖️ = Alex’s highest conviction setups
IMPORTANT NOTE:
I have the discipline to build a detailed FocusList each night, but I want to emphasize that I DON’T take all the trades that would trigger their entry. Some reasons to take a specific position over another or not take any trade, even if the alert is activated, are:
The general market price action
My Market-Based exposure model
My Portfolio-based exposure model (progressive exposure)
A high-conviction setup
Price action around the entry pivot
STOP LOSS:
Recent swing low pivot
For less active trading, you can use the recent swing low pivot as a good structure level to place your SL, but consider that the distance with the entry is larger, and you need to adjust your position size to keep the trade risk as a % of your portfolio ideally below 0.5%
LOD (Low Of Day) / HOD (High Of Day)
I like to use the LOD of the day I enter the trade. This way, I can use a larger position for the same trade risk as a % of my portfolio. BUT requires more active trade management and expects to be taken out more often (lower hit rate).
Then even if I take a trade at the entry pivot, I will very often sell it right away if the market roll over or the stock is backing out of the gate. I prefer to re-enter on the entry pivot reclaim than to be stuck with a larger loss. Please study all my education articles closely to learn how I handle trades around these entry pivots.
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Leading sectors:
(XLE) Energy - Gapped up above the UTL and reclaimed the 21dma. Not dead yet…
(SMH) Semiconductors - Leading sector. It followed through on the UTL breakdown but is still above the recent range low pivot & 21dma.
(TAN) Solar - Leading sector. It followed through on the UTL breakdown after retesting & rejecting the 10dma…on volume. We are still above the recent range low pivot & 21dma.
On watch:
(XBI) Biotech - Rejected by kma’s…but held the UTL. Such a critical level to watch tomorrow. Not dead yet, but holding by a thread.
(IGV) Software - Sideway action in the support area. Need direction.
MARKET BREADTH & INTERNALS (RISK MODEL)
NYHL (New 52W Highs - Lows) - oscillating around with a negative reading today. Small acceleration
Trend @ -23 (=)
NYAD (Net Adv/Decl) - Weak, but still positive breadth today.
20dma @ +161 (⬆️)
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT breadth) - Gapped up & held above the 10dma with an inside day. Tomorrow is important.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT breadth) - Gapped up & held above the 10dma with an inside day. Tomorrow is important.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST breadth) - Gapped up with an inside day. Tomorrow is important.
VIX (Volatility S&P 500) - Tried to spike above the 10dma & resistance area but got rejected by both. So far, VIX is not buying a market rollover.
DXY (US $) - Not great action with follow-through on yesterday’s bounce. But still below all kma’s.
US10Y/TNX (US 10Y bond yield) - Not great action with follow-through on yesterday’s bounce. But still below all kma’s.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
AEHR,SMCI,YPF,ASC,ELF,BTU,GPS,CHGG,NAT,IGT,RCL,RCUS,TNK,WFRD,GMAB,LSCC,LPG,DHT,JXN,STNG,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RES,SIGA,NOG,PSX,ASC,PR,DRH,TNK,ESTE,LTHM,CPE,CALM,PDCE,SWAV,RUN,MUR,HGV,SM,TRIP,ERF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
AEHR,YPF,GPS,SMCI,AEO,ELF,RCUS,NAT,BTU,LPG,ASC,GGB,IGT,RCL,CHGG,LSCC,ADT,WFRD,GMAB,AER,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
TGTX,BZ,YMM,PDD,AEO,ZTO,RCUS,ZLAB,JD,AGEN,PVH,SABR,GPS,BTU,BAND,YY,LI,CPRI,SHLS,RUN,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
AEHR,GPS,YPF,ASC,WFRD,BIIB,RCL,INSW,CHGG,LPG,GGB,ELF,CHX,SMCI,AEO,CCRN,AER,IGT,TNK,NAT,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
AEHR,ASC,CPRX,YPF,ELF,CCRN,TH,SMCI,INSW,NAT,TGTX,TNK,ARRY,DHT,SHLS,GPS,BIIB,RCUS,HLIT,CHGG,
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REFERENCES
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