Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 03/30
The market continues higher, fueled by mega-caps breakouts & strong action.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ_F followed through again today and came to retest the 13082/13100$ resistance levels I was watching closely. We were rejected several times intraday, but each time the reversal was bought, we finally closed just above it.
We are now entering the resistance area and are a bit extended from the 10dma, so we’ll have to be careful about rejecting that area.
Tomorrow is CPE (inflation) data, which might also move the market.
NQ_F is still above ALL KMA’s - uptrend.
On the upside (bullish scenario),
The 13356$ top base level will be the next potential resistance above. That’s a 2% move so we might not get there tomorrow.
On the downside (bearish scenario),
As long as we stay above 12801$ base level, we must assume it’s healthy pullback action.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
LIQUID LEADERS (PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS)
The mega-caps are acting very well with multiple breakouts today, so this is very hard to bearish. Big liquidity is flowing in the market.
If you want to trade them, I’ll still put my “ALERT” & “STOP-LOSS” levels on the charts. Up to you!
MSFT -Daily
Breakout today on another gap-up.
AAPL -Daily
Breakout from the recent swing high level. This is very constructive.
TSLA -Daily
Still in that range, but we broke out of the channel on the gap up today. With delivery numbers due before the market opens Monday, this will be hard to trade.
NVDA - Daily
Follow through on yesterday’s channel breakout, but are still below that swing high level.
META - Daily
Base breakout today.
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
NQ continues to trend above all kma’s while ES & RTY are trying hard to break above overhead resistance.
The breadth continues to improve, and we even got a 10dma cross on the NYSI, which puts me in an ST-UPTREND signal. We also see NYHL turning up for the 3rd day in a row, and even if we’re still below the 50dma, it means that underneath, the action is improving, and participation is widening.
Despite that, we did not get the big push we saw in NQ_F, as it seems like the big caps were making the majority of the weighted index.
QQQE (equal weight) was not showing that follow-through action after the morning gap. We’ll have to monitor it more closely to gauge the real participation of the small/mid-tech stocks.
We can also see that observation by looking at IWO (Russel 2000 growth ETF) chart. These represent the small/mid-cap high-growth basket that I use to trade, so clearly, we have constructive action from the UTL bounce, but we are still stuck in that range area at the 21dma. If we breakout from that range tomorrow, you could see far more powerful moves than we’ve seen in the last few days.
We are only on day 2 of a possible rally, so we’ll need to see how we follow through tomorrow and handle the overhead resistance. We must trust this rally attempt one step at a time as this market is turning into oversold territory, and we have seen many high-quality setups for a few days.
Bottom line:
Tomorrow is OPEX, and we have PCE (inflation) data report at 8:30. So this could be a funky day.
NQ_F remains in an uptrend above all kma’s.
Base breakout in MSFT AAPL META AMZN. It’s hard to be bearish with that action…
The market breadth improved again today, and NYSI (ST_SIGNAL) has trig the ST-UPTREND signal.
Stocks above their 200 & 50dma followed through and still have a lot of space to run above.
The VIX is now <20 and continued lower today.
Credit Spreads broke the range area of the last few days/week. We went in the right direction!
We see more & more high-quality setups working and holding their breakout. This is very constructive.
We have a wider sector’s participation as now not only SMH/FDN/IGV are holding the market. Beaten down sectors trying to reclaim key levels.
For these reasons, I am bullish but STILL cautious, as we still need NYHL to flip above the 50dma to confirm our IT rally. But so far, this is constructive action.
Market health & Trend indicators:
IT_SIGNAL (NYHL): uptrend (black) (red) + BELOW 50dma = INTERMEDIATE-TERM UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
ST_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + ABOVE 10dma = SHORT-TERM UPTREND (🟩)
Tomorrow's economic news/events:
GAME PLAN:
Tomorrow, I don’t want to chase a big gap-up on a good CPE reaction, especially before going into the wknd.
If the reaction is bad, I might look to catch high RS stock on the PB if I determine that the reversal is being bought. This will be an intraday call based on structure & tape.
FOCUSLIST
SMALL/MID-CAP STOCKS (PT UNIVERSE LIST)
INDICES TRADES
SMALL/MID-CAP STOCKS (PT UNIVERSE LIST)
HIMS (BORL) - Alert: 10.27, SL: 9.57 / LOD
Another name is retesting the base area we broke on the last earnings. We are now building higher lows at the 10/21dma. If we can reclaim the 50dma bounce swing high, we could see continuation.
UPDATE: We trigged the entry by a tick today at the open, but we faded back to retest the 10dma. The setup is still valid.
SKIN (WB) - Alert: 12.26, SL: 11.62 / LOD
Beautiful multi-week wedge forming with higher lows in the recent action. We also have the 10/20/50dma stacked together, so this could be a strong mover if we breakout, as there is a lot of pressure built in here.
LNTH (BO10PB) - Alert: 81.66, SL: 78.55 / LOD
Still building in that channel just above the 10dma. I will look at today’s high pivot reclaim for an entry.
MPWR (BORL) - Alert: 506.16, SL: 482.27 / LOD
A semi is still building below the DTL after the last PB at the 50dma. After two days of push, we might need another 1-2 days of tight action, but I prefer to keep it on the FL as we can push right away if SMH shows strength tomorrow.
SHOP (BORS) - Alert: 47.32, SL: 44 / LOD
Weekly - Giant stage 1 base potential breakout. (2nd attempt)
Daily - We came to retest the 21dma and created that BORS setup to confirm that the base area has flipped to support. I would be interested if we can reclaim the previous swing high pivot.
INDICES TRADES
We are past a good entry for TQQQ. We need to wait for a PB and proper R/R setup.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
TQQQ - swing high pivot breakout
OKTA - Initial rejection of 84.95$ level. Still low volume
NET - new
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors
We could not breakout from the 261.92$ base level today but still closed nicely on a gap-up. This pivot will be on watch tomorrow for a reclaim.
FDN Internet
Another gap-up, but we could not breakout from that base 144.92$ level.
IGV Software
Gap up and remains in the resistance area. This is showing a lot of strength.
TAN Solar
Big gap up and was leading the market today, but we saw a lot of reversal & fade in this sector as we were rejected at the 50dma.
XBI Biotech
Rejected at the 10dma, and we are back at the base support level. This is acting very weak…
XLE Energy
Another gap above the 21dma, and we are approaching the 82.79$ resistance level.
XME Metals & Mining
A Gap above the 21dma today and sitting just below the 52.70$ resistance level.
XRT Retail
DTL breakout, but we got rejected at the 21dma, and we are still in that range area.
MARKET BREADTH & INTERNALS
NYHL (Cumulative new 52W Highs/Lows & 50dma)
We turned back up today, indicating an IT downtrend under pressure.
IT_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) (red) + BELOW 50dma = INTERMEDIATE-TERM UNDER-PRESSURE (🟨)
NYSI (McClellan summation index & 10dma)
We finally crossed the 10dma to give us an ST-UPTREND! This indicator gives us an indication of the strength of the market as more & more stocks are participating in this rally. This indicator is not perfect, but used along with all the other internals, it gives a pretty strong conviction.
ST_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + ABOVE 10dma = SHORT-TERM UPTREND (🟩)
NYMO (McClellan Oscillator - Breadth extensions)
NYMO is being pretty stretched here from a straight move from the structure breakout. We are at 60, and a very extended move is around 100…so there is still a place for this move to continue IMO.
We continue to strengthen and adds more NNH today.
NYAD (NYSE Net Advances/Declines)
Net advances continue for the 5th day.
NYA200R (Stocks > 200dma - LT breadth)
Follow through on range breakout.
NYA50R (Stocks > 50dma - MT breadth)
Follow through on range breakout. There is so much room on the upside, we are still only at 30% stock > 50dma.
NYA20R (Stocks > 20dma - ST breadth)
We continued to push today and are now at 44.56%. We still have room to run ST, IMO.
We tried to bounce from that bear market support area, but we faded the move and closed at the lows and negative. This is very constructive.
We follow through on the UTL breakdown and are now back to a downtrend.
It broke below that range I was watching closely. This is good!
We are building a tight area below the 21dma.
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LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
AEHR,ALGM,ELF,ANET,ONON,LSCC,IOT,FSLY,INDI,PANW,DKNG,DUOL,ACLS,MELI,LNTH,FOUR,SMCI,GFS,CNK,CARG,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
FRO,EURN,ALB,INSW,CALM,ASC,ELF,CPRX,DHT,MUR,H,PANW,ANET,HIMS,ALGM,AEHR,NE,BTU,NCLH,PR,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
BBIO,FSLY,DUOL,ONON,AEHR,INDI,IOT,ALGM,LSCC,ACLS,CNK,DKNG,MAXN,MELI,SHOP,ANET,HIMS,ELF,LNTH,FOUR,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
BBIO,MAXN,ONON,DUOL,ASAN,FSLY,ARRY,IOT,DOCN,GTLS,JNPR,KBH,LSCC,GPK,NOG,PARR,DEN,CNK,ANET,SMCI,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
BBIO,FSLY,DUOL,AEHR,INDI,ONON,ACLS,CNK,DKNG,MAXN,LNTH,ALGM,IOT,HIMS,MELI,LSCC,ASAN,DOCN,ABNB,FRO,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
AEHR,ACLS,BBIO,FSLY,ALGM,ONON,ELF,LSCC,HIMS,DUOL,INDI,SMCI,OII,IOT,SHOP,PARR,RCL,FRO,MELI,FOUR,
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
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