Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/25
The market following through and breaking out of important levels
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Alex ✌️🙏
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
The market following through and breaking out of important levels
ES_F opened the day pretty weak and acted as such all morning. It found support quickly and trended higher all afternoon to close the day at the highs and above the 4056$ pivot we were watching closely. Typical strong market action.
We closed just below 4082$, which will be important to monitor tomorrow as it could act as potential resistance.
So far, the trend is strong, and we are also breaking out of important levels on NQ_F & RTY_F.
Always keep an open mind on both possible scenarios (bull/bear). It's a big part of my success.
On the upside,
4082$ on ES_F will be a big potential resistance level to watch tomorrow. 4137$ will be the next to watch if we can reclaim that level.
On the downside,
I would like to see the market holding the 10dma and the 4056$ for a minimal pullback in this strong market.
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ PRIME_LIST (top 5 potential TML’s)
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Market Breadth & Internals
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS
We made a new structure higher high today, confirming the current uptrend.
Under the hood, things continue to improve, and the breadth is picking up. The VIX and DXY (US$) are pushing lower and are on the verge of breaking important support areas that would confirm a more sustained move IMO. Remain to be seen!
RTY_F already closed above 1905$, a very important level that would essentially bring us into a stage 1 base breakout on the index. ES_F 4082$ is also a very important level to watch.
I continue to like what I see and play this uptrend until we have a structural break.
Some observations:
ES_F follow-through
Breadth opened weak again but closed strong.
Leading names pushed higher while many names made hammer bar again today.
VIX was rejected at the 10dma and closed at the bottom of the bear market support area. If we break that area tomorrow, it adds A LOT of conviction to the continuation of this move IMO.
DXY (US$) - rejected at the 10dma but closed green.
My MT_SIGNAL (McClellan sum. index & 10dma) is in CONFIRMED UPTREND.
My LT_SIGNAL (Cumulative new 52W H/L & 50dma) CROSSED the 50dma and confirmed a BULL market signal.
Market health & Trend indicators:
LT_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + ABOVE 50dma = BULL market developing (🟩)
MT_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + ABOVE 10dma = UPTREND (🟩)
Tomorrow's economic news/events:
GAME PLAN:
Tomorrow I plan to manage my current positions as I feel I have more exposure that I want to go into the weekend with. So, selling into strength and bringing back the exposure around 50%.
EXPOSURE MODEL:
PRIME_LIST (NEW)
AEHR FOUR MELI LSCC
AEHR: We came under pressure today but still closed green. The trend is still strong, above all kma’s, and no red flags.
FOUR: We gapped up today, retested the 21dma on a higher low, and returned green on the day. Now two very bullish candles at the 21dma. I am watching that DTL closely for confirmation higher. I initiated a pilot position today.
ARRY: Removing it from the P_LIST after the last two days' action. We held the 50dma, but I wouldn’t say I liked the overall action in the group. (SHLS also nasty action today).
MELI: Gap up and go. I missed the entry and will have to wait for another good R/R spot. Confirming its leadership today.
LSCC: We broke above the 76.47$ pivot and confirm the breakout. I have a position.
FOCUSLIST (LONG)
FOUR 63.6, APA 46.14, EVH 32.1, CLF 21.56, BAND 23.68,
FOUR - Alert: 63.6, SL: 59.74
See PRIME_LIST
APA - Alert: 46.14, SL: 43.65
The energy sector is trying to break its multi-month base, so we could see energy names following and showing strength in the next few days. APA is building a long wedge to retest the base area with higher lows. Very close to break that DTL.
EVH - Alert: 32.1, SL: 30.11
Multi-month DTL breakout, followed by a consolidation in the last 2w above all trending kma’s. BO10PB with higher lows.
CLF - Alert: 21.56, SL: 20.51
The steel sector was on fire today following STLD earnings. The strength might spread in the sector and push other names as well. CLF as pulled back to the 10dma and broke out of is channel today. Looking at the recent swing high pivot for an entry.
BAND - Alert: 23.68, SL: 22.3
I have been stopped on it today at the open. I will be looking to re-position if we reclaim that 23.18$ pivot I used for my previous entry. We held that support area and closed above the 50dma today.
UPDATE: It was not able to push today. I raised the entry pivot to 23.68$ to gain more confirmation.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
Leading sectors:
(SMH) Semiconductors - Very strong day as we gapped up, filled the gap, and closed at the highs. INTC & KLAC earnings were not very good afters-hours, and it can impact this sector tomorrow.
(TAN) Solar - Almost unchanged with a retest of kma’s and close above. Despite the OK action on TAN, we see wild swings in names like ARRY & SHLS that I don’t like.
(XBI) Biotech - Best looking sector for a low-risk entry right now, IMO. We broke from that multi-month channel, formed a long stage 1 base (A bit wild), and broke out last week only to retest the 85$ base level Friday. I initiated my position last week and added more aggressively today on the pullback.
UPDATE: retest of the recent support area after being rejected at 89.63$ base high. It was on low volume, so no red flag here.
(GDX) Gold miners - Inside day.
(XLE) Energy - XLE pushed inside the resistance area and could breakout to a new multi-year high with this base breakout. Very important level tomorrow…
(XME) Metals & Mining - came back in but closed strong and above 57.16$ level. The trend is strong.
(XRT) Retail - Retest of the 67.15$ stage 1 base level. Healthy action.
(IGV) Software - We confirmed the stage 1 base breakout today. We seems to enter stage 2 uptrend.
MARKET BREADTH & INTERNALS
$NYHL (Cumulative new 52W Highs/Lows & 50dma)
LT_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + ABOVE 50dma = BULL market developing (🟩)
!MCSUMNYA (McClellan summation index & 10dma)
MT_SIGNAL: uptrend (black) + ABOVE 10dma = UPTREND (🟩)
$NYMOT (McClellan Oscillator - Breadth extensions)
Higher low it seems to be.
NYHL (New 52W Highs/Lows) - Almost back to the previous high. If we want to confirm this strong market, I want to see a new higher high here in NH’s.
NYAD (Net Adv/Decl) - Back above +1000. Breadth was good today.
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT breadth) - Structure break with a new higher high. The trend is intact, and we are above all kma’s.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT breadth) - We broke the DTL but came back in to close right on it. We need more confirmation tomorrow.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST breadth) - Unchanged.
VIX (Volatility S&P 500) - The VIX was rejected at the 10dma and closed at the bottom of the bear market support area. If we break that area tomorrow, it adds A LOT of conviction to the continuation of this move IMO.
DXY/TNX (US$) - Rejected at the 10dma but closed green.
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
AEHR,NINE,FOUR,BAND,MELI,PR,RCL,LSCC,ALGM,ARRY,TGTX,H,OII,PARR,HGV,AAL,CSIQ,IGT,JXN,CCL,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
NOG,FRO,CALM,PR,ESTE,LTHM,CPE,RUN,AEHR,HGV,TRIP,GFS,JXN,LBRT,DVAX,CEIX,DK,LNTH,ABNB,PBF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
TGTX,AEHR,MELI,OII,ALGM,NINE,BAND,LSCC,FOUR,RMBS,CLF,RCL,ARRY,CSIQ,ONON,GPS,H,CPRI,KLAC,IGT,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
AEHR,TGTX,BTTR,MELI,CHPT,CNK,TSLA,LTHM,BLNK,DKNG,TOST,EXPE,GTLB,AAL,ABNB,FRO,CSIQ,ALB,APP,PR,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
TGTX,NINE,BAND,AEHR,OII,LSCC,CLF,ALGM,SPR,RMBS,FOUR,MELI,CPRI,KLAC,WMG,GNK,IGT,TOL,MPWR,SBLK,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
NINE,AEHR,TGTX,OII,BAND,FOUR,RMBS,RCL,ALGM,PARR,MELI,ARRY,JXN,LSCC,PR,CLF,GPS,VAL,IGT,CPRI,
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
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Thanks. ARHS looking superb as well.
Awesome work! Thanks