Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 07/02
Major indices retesting prior highs after a short pullback.
Good evening guys,
Wishing, in advance, to the entire trading community a joyful and prosperous 4th of July holiday filled with freedom, success, and endless opportunities in the markets! 🎉🇺🇸📈
Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
NQ had a strong day Friday, as we broke above the recent swing high pivot on a 1.6% move.
We are approaching the 15475$ 52w high level, and we’ll have to watch that level closely this week as potential resistance.
We are now 7.9% above the 50dma. Still extended.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Retest of the 1918$ base high level on Friday, after 5 straight-up days from the lows. I would expect maybe 2-3 days to retest the 10 or 21dma before attempting the breakout.
On the weekly, we have a bullish outside week, so probabilities are high for a continuation higher ST.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Price Action Analysis:
Retest of the 4493$ base high level on Friday, after 4 straight-up days from the lows. I would expect maybe 2-3 days to retest the 10/21dma or the 4455$ level before attempting the breakout.
On the weekly, we have a bullish outside week, so probabilities are high for a continuation higher ST.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
Price closed UP (+0.79%) and still above ALL KMA's.
Breadth was POSITIVE and increasing. (+329)
U/D volume at 8.39 (strong)
MSCI UPTREND + BELOW 10dma. (Very close to cross)
MOMENTUM continues to pick back up. (8.5 daily)
NNH at +26 (Pushing to new highs - good!!)
Bottomline:
PT MODEL = GREEN market signal (🟩)
With Friday’s strong breadth, we are back to a full GREEN market signal. The only thing missing is the MSCI to cross back the 10dma, but with LT indicators strongly positive, I consider this to be a pullback in a strong uptrend.
The trend, momentum & breadth is strong and expanding after that pullback—all constructive signs.
Internals
Not able to make a new low in the last four weeks. We also made a higher low and hammer bar on Friday. Will need to monitor closely.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Still struggling at the 3.86% base level. It might need to cool off a bit, but weekly looks pretty bullish here.
No risk is being priced in, but pretty ST extended.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Building nicely in that flag above the 10dma. Looking for a continuation higher.
SECTORS ANALYSIS
Big thrust for $FFTY, leading this week.
Mid & Small-cap leading large-cap. This is precisely the rotation we wanted to see.
Themes & Subsectors
Autonomous Vehicles IDRV leading theme last week.
Good to see Semiconductors PSI leading, along Oil & Gas Exploration & Production PXE. Recently, it was either one or the other.
Good seeing IPO being in the top 10 performers. It’s a good sign of a more speculative market heating up.
LEADERS (top10)
Leading sectors:
SMH Semiconductors: Reclaimed recent swing high pivot on Friday, and looking constructive as we are still digesting the recent leg up. Very very healthy action so far.
IGV Software: Reclaimed breakout swing high pivot and still digesting the recent leg up here.
ITB Home Builders: New high again on Friday.
We are ST extended.
XLY Consumer discretionary: New high Friday, and looks like we only had a 1 week pause before resuming the uptrend. Very strong.
FOCUS & LEADERS LIST
TPR - TAPESTRY, INC. (WBPB) - Alert: 44.07, SL: 41.89
Leading sector (Consumer Discretionary XLY, but not leading THEME - Luxury LUX )
10/30wma aligned, squeezed & uptrend
It just bounced from 10+30wma, but still not extended.
72% prior uptrend
5 weeks base & consolidation following the weekly DTL breakout
Higher lows and surfing the kma’s before the potential breakout.
1.29 U/D ratio.
MNDY - MONDAY.COM LTD (BORL) - Alert: 176.03, SL: 163.01
Middle-pack sector, but near 52w high and historically strong. (Software PSJ)
10/30wma aligned & uptrend
150% prior uptrend
Four weeks base & consolidation following the stage 1 base breakout
Retest of the stage 1 base area.
Perfect volume profile on recent pullback.
2.02 U/D ratio.
MELI - MERCADOLIBRE, INC. (WB) - Alert: 1214.21, SL: 1154.5
Middle-pack sector, but HOT theme. (Software PSJ & Online Retail IBUY )
10/30wma uptrend, but 10wma downtrend. Perfect 30wma retest last week.
120% prior uptrend
12 weeks base & consolidation following the stage 1 base breakout ish
Near-perfect fundamentals, estimates and clear TML potential, but the price did not confirm yet.
1.11 U/D ratio.
DT - DYNATRACE, INC. (BO21PB) - Alert: 52.31, SL: 49.88
Middle-pack sector (Software PSJ)
10/30wma uptrend & aligned.
45% prior uptrend
Four weeks base & consolidation following the stage 1 base breakout
Controlled volume on the pullback.
1.5 U/D ratio.
CFLT - CONFLUENT, INC. (BO21PB) - Alert: 35.58, SL: 32.59
Middle-pack sector (Software PSJ)
10/30wma uptrend & aligned.
88% prior uptrend and strong move from last earnings.
Two weeks pullback only.
1.5 U/D ratio.
INDICES/SECTORS:
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
SDGR,IMGN,MARA,SMCI,NVTS,VRT,ELF,MDB,APP,RDFN,PLTR,SGH,XP,EXAS,NVDA,ACLS,EXPI,PANW,CELH,TGTX,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RCL,ELF,NCLH,CCL,CELH,TMDX,DT,WNC,HTGC,SDGR,WYNN,EXAS,FUTU,CRSP,ALGM,ARRY,CSIQ,ALB,MGM,PANW,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
IMGN,SDGR,MARA,SMCI,CCL,APP,NVTS,SGH,VRT,RCL,RDFN,MDB,NCLH,XP,PLTR,EXPI,ACLS,RILY,NVDA,SHAK,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
MARA,CCL,COIN,NCLH,GTLB,PLAY,SDGR,GTLS,DAL,JBLU,VRT,MSTR,BBIO,IMGN,AAL,RILY,BRZE,SGH,RCL,SMTC,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
IMGN,SMCI,XP,SDGR,CCL,PLTR,MDB,VRT,SGH,RILY,TGTX,APP,NCLH,CELH,EXPI,MARA,RCL,GH,NVDA,GTLB,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
IMGN,SMCI,MARA,SDGR,RIOT,NVDA,NVTS,CCL,PLTR,RDFN,APP,MDB,TGTX,XP,RCL,SGH,META,VRT,DKNG,ACLS,
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS & GAMEPLAN
The market continues to digest the recent move, and we saw a decisive 4-5 days bounce last week after the recent pullback. Everything looks constructive, especially with a bullish outside week on NQ, ES, FFTY, and IWO.
After the last day’s bounce, we are getting right into recent base high levels, and pretty ST extended already, so I think 2-3 days of sideway or pullback action down to the 10dma would only be normal and healthy. Don’t discount this type of action early in the week.
MARKET CLOSE AT 13:00 TOMORROW (07/03) and closed TUESDAY (07/04). So the next newsletter will be sent Tuesday night only.
GAME PLAN:
Exposure model = GREEN market signal (🟩)
I am now nearly fully exposed and will only add to my current positions if we pull back early in the week. If not, I will be patient and let my current positions work.
Now comes the hard part. SITTING ON OUR HANDS once positioning is done.
If I initiate a new position, it will only rotate from a lagging position to a strong stock breaking out. But, I want to be patient and not cut a leading stock digesting for a laggard breaking out late.
Economic news/events:
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
Articles on the system:
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Happy 4th to Alex and All!