Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/03
AAPL mixed earnings while AMZN is CRUSHING it. Tomorrow reaction is pivotal.
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From August 13 to 18, there will be no daily reports as I will be on vacation without internet access.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
NQ held pretty well today without being able to reclaim that base area. Flat day while it was waiting on highly awaited AAPL & AMZN earnings after market hours.
AAPL -2% amh
AMZN +8.75% amh
Futures are reacting positively to earnings, and futures are trying to reclaim that 15500$ base area.
This will be a critical area to watch for price action tomorrow, as a reclaim would be constructive, while a retest & rejection would be another warning sign.
I’ll also watch the 10/21dma as overhead potential resistance tomorrow.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
RTY held the 21dma & base area today, which is super constructive, and we could see a bounce tomorrow, IMO. The 10dma could act as resistance, but if we reclaim it, this is very constructive.
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
Still below all kma’s, but we found good support just above the base area, and futures are showing strong action. I’ll observe how we act around the 10/21dma underneath retest.
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is on a GREEN market (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥) signal.
Flat action today, as the market seemed to wait on AAPL & AMZN earnings.
We are at a pivotal point, IMO. Tomorrow will be decisive if we are going into a prolonged pullback or not.
MCSI is sitting right on 10dma.
PTHL is still primarily flat
Momentum picked back up today, but still negative and at key level.
Price right at 21dma
If we break from here, I think we’ll see more selling in the next few weeks. If we can bounce from here tomorrow, we’ll remain in good shape for an upside continuation breakout.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Keep coming down with another move lower today. We are now below 50%.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Broke the 10wma today as we continue to move lower & away from the overbought area.
VIX was rejected at the 17.08$ recent swing high pivot, which is what I wanted to see for this pullback to remain healthy.
This is constructive, but we want to see a follow through lower tomorrow to confirm a potential ST bounce.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Big spike today as bond market is gaining volatility.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
The uptrend continues, and the 4.335% base high level is the next potential resistance.
Holding around the 21dma.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
We are still below all kma’s, but holding that recent range structure well.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily & weekly Focuslist (POSITION+SWING), including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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