Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 09/05
The anticipated pullback started today while mega-caps & the technology sectors showed good relative strength.
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Alex ✌️
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES/ made an LH & LL today as we confirmed the pullback.
Tomorrow will be interesting, as we’re getting into potential support with important stacked levels immediately.
50dma
4493$
Current rally low_AVWAP
I’ll monitor these levels closely tomorrow to assess if this pullback continues to be healthy.
Today was also on low volume, and this is constructive.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM)
PTMM is back at a FULL LT GREEN market signal (🟩)
Price closed DOWN (-1.39%) - decent move down
Breadth was DOWN (-327) - strong
U/D volume at 2.04 - strong
MCSI UPTREND + ABOVE 10dma - Still all good
Daily MOMENTUM was DOWN (0.15) - very weak
5 & 10-day flipped down, but still > 1
NNH is at +13 - a big drop, but still positive
+1.05% > 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE:
We expected a pullback after the last seven straight UP days; there we have it. So far, it remains healthy and constructive as we saw controlled selling and some areas of the market showing good action.
We’ll now need to look for support the next day(s). One day at a time.
We remain in FULL GREEN. So far, I treat it as a healthy pullback after getting ahead of ourselves last week.
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
We're pulling back hard here today, which is a good sign as we’re creating the space for the next leg up. Now back below 50%.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Showing a normal & healthy PB following an oversold bounce. Look at the last rally & cycle. There were 6 of those on the way up.
A bounce in that 12.50/13$ base area as expected to kick off that market pullback. Now let’s see how we react tomorrow. Follow through, or drift back down.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Big bounce today, we’ll have to monitor if this reversal get follow through.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
10Y rally continues, and we’re right in the area I’m watching for a potential reversal. If we reclaim that area and push to a new high, we’re getting in potential trouble.
Credit Spreads reversed from 1.52 level today; we’ll need to watch if this has legs or not.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Back at the base level range area. No man’s land.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
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✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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