Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/23
NVDA earnings reaction ignite the market - Can it hold tomorrow and give traction to this rally?
Good evening!
Alex ✌️
PrimeTrading is an equity swing trading community based on DISCORD to learn & trade alongside experienced traders.
✅ See how I execute intraday while I share my trades live.
✅ Alex's daily market commentary, Portfolio updates, trade explanations, and daily FocusList.
✅ Share & Discuss potential trade ideas with an amazing like-minded community
✅ Talk Macro Economy, Cryptocurrencies & much more!
✅ Talk about mental game & psychology to evolve as a trader!
✅ Education & mentoring from Alex & experienced traders. (10 Experienced Traders team)
✅ Q&A meetings & LIVE sessions
Improve as a trader with a risk management first approach while working directly with me intraday.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Interesting day
After yesterday’s close on the 10dma & 4419$ rejection, we never broke that low and rallied strong right from the open this morning.
We reclaimed the 4419$ level and pushed through the 10dma. This was a powerful trend until EOD, where we saw some profit-taking & selling before NVDA earnings.
We saw a nice pop on NVDA earnings after-hours, as ES is up 0.5% and approaching these important resistance levels.
We have important overhead resistance ahead:
high_AVWAP
21 + 50dma
4493$ structure levels
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4419$
4341$ recent support structure
4312$ level
30wma/200dma
4221/4259$ 2022 important base structure area
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM)
Change in the PTMM model:
LT price trend rule will be changed from the 21>50dma to the 50>200dma. The idea is to capture the more significant market trend (bull market), and the 21/50 rule was too reactive. Based on the backtesting I made on ES since 2000 (see chart), I will switch to the 50>200dma going forward.
LT rules:
LT price rule: 50>200dma
LT Momentum rule: +25%/3M ratio > 1
LT breadth rule: PTHL > 50dma
The idea is not for precise market timing but to be less aggressive during these bear market / corrective periods.
PTMM is on an LT GREEN market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed UP (+1.19%) but still below all kma’s.
Breadth was UP and strong (+355) - Not quite a breadth thrust, but it was close (I want to see > 400)
U/D volume at 7.99 (strong)
MCSI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma (beginning to round up - still early)
Daily MOMENTUM was UP (4.08- decent)
5 & 10-day ratio both curling back up & uptrend.
NNL is at -6 and improved today.
-2.06% < 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE:
Today was a constructive day, as we did not follow through on yesterday’s structure & 10dma rejection and reclaimed these levels to make a new ST high.
We are seeing indicators curving up, so this is a start, but we have much work to do to confirm the turn, not only a rally that will fail and roll over.
We could see NNH tomorrow.
PTHL is starting to round up
MCSI is decelerating, but there is much work to do for the turn
ST_momentum already turned up and approached the positive territory.
MT & LT_momentum are just starting to round up, too - much work to do.
Based on my new LT price rule, we are back to an LT GREEN market but on a PULLBACK signal for three weeks.
In the next few days, we need more strength to see ST & MT indicators flip back positive…one day at a time!
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
Strong bounce today, as we are coming off the oversold area.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Reversal today. We’re in potential bounce area for a shallow pullback.
VIX powerful 17$ rejeciton today, still above kma's tho, but very constructive.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Failed breakout or retest of structure & DTL before a bounce?
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
10Y undercut the 10d with a big 4.33% historical level rejection
Credit Spreads are not sniffing a risk event right now. We are right in the recent structure and pivotal area. If we break lower, I would assume we continue that rally and that pullback is behind us. If we bounce or even U&R, it's another story, and we could look at a rollover.
If junk bonds (HYG) breakout from that weekly base area and that tight handle, it's go time.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC had a good bounce today and held where it had. We remain below all kma’s and in a solid ST downtrend.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to PrimeTrading to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.