Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/09
CPI tomorrow - buckle up
PLEASE NOTE:
From August 13 to 18, there will be no daily reports as I will be on vacation without internet access.
Alex ✌️
PrimeTrading is an equity swing trading community based on DISCORD to learn & trade alongside experienced traders.
✅ See how I execute intraday while I share my trades live.
✅ Alex's daily market commentary, Portfolio updates, trade explanations, and daily FocusList.
✅ Share & Discuss potential trade ideas with an amazing like-minded community
✅ Talk Macro Economy, Cryptocurrencies & much more!
✅ Talk about mental game & psychology to evolve as a trader!
✅ Education & mentoring from Alex & experienced traders. (10 Experienced Traders team)
✅ Q&A meetings & LIVE sessions
Improve as a trader with a risk management first approach while working directly with me intraday.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F) Daily
ES could not follow through on yesterday’s bounce, as we got rejected right at the high_AVWAP & 10dma before making another new low and closing below the 4493$ level.
Tomorrow is CPI (inflation report), and it will be a pivotal day in the market, potentially bringing high volatility.
We have a lot of overhead resistance ahead if we rally on the CPI report:
high_AVWAP
10dma
21dma
4551$ structure area
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4493$ base level/area: strong support so far, on watch.
4419$ level: Early July structure & precise measured move for this pullback.
50dma: -4.20% from the top (-0.5% from here)
4303$ (would be around 200d/30wma) : -7.13% (-4.0%)
4190$ recent base: -9.77% (-6.5%)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F) Daily
NASDAQ (NQ_F) Daily
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM) & INTERNALS
PTMM is still on a GREEN LT market signal (🟩), on PULLBACK (🟥).
Price closed UP (-0.78%), and we approached the 50dma.
Breadth was DOWN and accelerating from yesterday (-218)
U/D volume at 0.21 (very weak)
MCSI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma
Daily MOMENTUM was DOWN again, for the 7th consecutive day (0.47) - 5 & 10-day ratio negative.
LT_momentum continues to be strong as we see rotation into more defensive sectors.
NNH is at +11 (+1.7%) & PTHL is back in an uptrend and a new high. (constructive)
0.86% > 50dma. (We are getting right in that potential bounce spot)
BOTTOMLINE:
The pullback continues, with another day of negative breadth.
Remember that TOMORROW is the CPI inflation report, so we either accelerate on the downside or we bounce after seeing 7th straight down days since the top.
The pullback is still in play based on the following:
MCSI is in a downtrend and flipped below the 10dma signal.
ST & MT_momentum is negative and in a downtrend.
The price is below 10/21dma.
Some constructive actions I see right now:
LT_momentum remains strong, supported by internal rotation.
That 50dma flush & bounce on ST oversold conditions is possible on CPI tomorrow.
The pullback continues to play out, and until we see MSCI & momentum curve back up, along with price reclaiming kma’s…we’ll remain in a low probability and unfavorable market.
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Pullback continues, and we are now pushing below the 40% level.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
We are now approaching the 50% level.
VIX closed flat, just above the 10dma that we retested this morning. Overall, we remain in that 15/17$ range, and a break on either side will give us good information on the market's direction after CPI.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
DTL rejection continues as we closed back below all kma’s today.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
4.09% rejection continues as we broke the 10dma & UTL today. We’ll need to continue that downtrend to relieve some pressure off growth stocks.
Credit Spreads is not showing any spike, and we are still building nicely at the 21dma. That's constructive.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC rejected at 30k & 50dma but still held the 10/21dma. Healthy action so far.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily & weekly Focuslist (POSITION+SWING), including setups, alert levels & explanation
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to PrimeTrading to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.