Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 08/22
ES oversold rally rejected at overhead structure & 10dma
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
As expected, we were entering the crunchy part of that technical rally, with some overhead resistance within reach.
After a gap-up, we were rejected at the 10dma and couldn’t hold the 4419$ level either.
Tomorrow will be important to assess if we FOLLOW-THROUGH on that rejection or make a higher low and reclaim that 4419$ structure level.
We have a lot of overhead resistance ahead:
4419$ level (rejected today)
10dma (rejected today)
high_AVWAP
21 + 50dma
4493$ structure levels
Until we reclaim these levels, we’ll need to look for either consolidation in that range or a rejection that would resume that pullback to these potential targets below.
Levels I’m watching for potential support if we pullback further:
4341$ recent support structure
4312$ level
30wma/200dma
4221/4259$ 2022 important base structure area
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PT MARKET MODEL (PTMM)
PTMM is still on a FULL RED (🟥) signal.
Price closed DOWN (-0.58%) and still below all down-trending kma's. (rejected 10dma today)
Breadth was DOWN (-156)
U/D volume at 0.65 (weak)
MCSI DOWNTREND + BELOW 10dma (strong downtrend)
Daily MOMENTUM was DOWN (0.29 - weak)
LT_momentum weakening continues (3.09)
NNL is at -17 and going back down after yesterday’s rally (2.6%) & PTHL is back to a downtrend.
-3.3% < 50dma.
BOTTOMLINE: As expected, that oversold rally is getting into overhead resistance without showing much strength.
Today, we were rejected at the 10dma, and breadth, momentum & price all reversed as we continued the overall downtrend.
There is a real danger to rollover if we can’t make a higher low, confirmed by a breadth thrust soon.
We need to see broad strength!
Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
MMTW now prints a reversal at the 20% level, paired with #ES_F, #RTY_F & #NQ_F being at significant potential support making a technical/oversold bounce possible to start the week. Where we go after that, only the price will know.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
Below 40%, but still, room to go. New low today.
VIX traded around the 17$ level today, as we couldn’t break the 10dma but could not bounce either.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Right at KEY DTL while building higher lows and above all kma's as the 10Y yield hangs near the highest level since 2007. Not implying anything, only noting pivotal areas at historical levels.
UPDATE: No follow-through, but still above all levels & kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Some resistance at 4.33% historical level. Still above all kma’s.
No red flag here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Big washout last week as we broke that recent daily structure and triggered a lot of forced selling as we retested that 25k area this week. If we can’t hold here, 24k is the next potential support.
In the following sections of tonight’s letter, I’ll cover essential parts of my daily routine & preparation for tomorrow’s trading session.
Make sure to subscribe and support my work if you’re interested!
✅ My overall current market Takeaways & GAMEPLAN for tomorrow
✅ My daily Focuslist, including setups, alert levels & explanation (LONG/SHORT)
✅ My Portfolio update
✅ Sectors Review
✅ Economic Calendar
✅ Prime Model spreadsheet (PT_database)
✅ Leaders list (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
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