Good evening folks,
Things are getting really really interesting…let’s see if we can confirm today’s action.
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
Let’s be honest, one hell of a day!!
The market opened very weak, even RTY being down 2.7% and below 1698$, which trigged last night bearish scenario.
Why did I not sell my positions & open a market short trade then..? If looking at the price action, we saw some names like CELH, GTLB & VIR bucking the trend and showing incredible strength being up 4-5% while the market was at its lows. There was a CLEAR DIVERGENCE/DECOUPLING action between leading names & the market itself.
When this happens, always make your decision based on the stocks you are holding and the ones in your focuslist. ESPECIALLY while the market is stretched on the downside with an extreme bearish sentiment. Remember that leading names bottom BEFORE indices.
So, while respecting my progressive exposure, I added a few names, and eventually, the general market followed and rallied back above the support area (1698/1713) and closed above 1726$ & 10dma.
We are still below 50 & 21dma - 🛡️
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 21dma
Close above 1755$
THEN:
Increase exposure in leading sectors if progressive exposure allows me
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Close below 1698$
THEN:
Defense - close long exposure & open TZA
MARKET BREADTH
VIX rallied hard this morning and I really thought we would roll over here with a DTL breakout and 30$ reclaim…but we were never able to make it. Instead, we reversed the entire day's move and close almost unchanged.
USD/CAD That’s the move that worries me… a 1.5% move on USD is HUGE. If we break that 1.305$ it could mean more trouble for the US economy. It’s a second/third tier indicator for me, but still concerning a bit. At the end, it’s STOCKS, INDICES, BREATH first
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN) (ftportfolios.com)
This internet fund is starting to lead recently, so I am interested to know what is included in it.
Here are the names sorted by Prime Score that respect my model:
DDOG,TWTR,PINS,ANET,SNOW,ZG,Z,TDOC,SNAP,ABNB,OPEN,EXPE,DOCU,
IBB - Biotechnologies coming out of its stage 1 base today with a powerful move ON VOLUME. leading sector
TAN - Solar Still working in that wedge. Found support at the UTL today. Key level held.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
DQ,SIGA,LI,HRB,PDD,STKL,YMM,HRMY,CELH,LNTH,SWAV,EXEL,DVAX,EGY,PPC,SQM,HUM,MCK,ARCH,AMN,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,DDL,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
SIGA,LI,FUTU,STKL,PDD,DQ,HRB,YMM,HRMY,CELH,EXEL,MDVL,ELF,HUM,MCK,LNTH,QURE,CEIX,CNR,EGY,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
QURE,GTLB,AGEN,ZLAB,VCYT,YMM,RCUS,LI,CPNG,ELF,SNOW,SIGA,FGEN,ABCL,ME,HIMS,FUTU,STKL,PDD,DDL,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
LNTH,SIGA,VTNR,DQ,CEIX,PBF,OXY,HDSN,EGY,AMR,SQM,JKS,BORR,HRB,NINE,CVI,GLNG,FUTU,LI,AR,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
New positions:
VIR - Bought a little bit passed the DTL breakout. I wanted to see if the market would bring it down, but when I saw it was not the case, I opened the trade.
SWAV - Opened right at the BORS confirmation entry pivot from the FL.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
TNA- Closed the position on the open selloff. Didin’t have the cushion to weather it.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
UTHR
Another stock that had is stage 1 base breakout a few weeks ago, that had a BORL setup which we broke out on volume and now we are creating a nice BO10PB setup right below the most recent high of 239.77$. If we retake that pivot, we would confirm the setup & continuation.
UPDATE: tightening right under DTL, setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 239.77$
ENPH
Leader in TAN leading sector. That’s a name that I tried to position a couple of times now if you've been following me for a while. We are now at that base top area again and got a nice retest of the 50dma today with a nice reversal of that support area. We are still that larger wedge, but I would be interested to try another entry on last week's pivot of 198.73$. I see an inverted H&S pattern and a series of higher lows working up as well. It
Will probably be my top focus setup tomorrow. Pivot still valid
Alert - 198.73$
HRMY
A biotech name that we had on PT FL at 46.28$ pivot but that I missed. Now we have another chance with the BO10PB setup as we retested the 10dma and found really good support to close almost at the recent swing high. This swing high corresponds to the base top of 52.82$. So if we breakout from that pivot, we get our BO10PB confirmation, but also our classic base breakout.
Alert - 52.82$
ARLP
Strongest Coal name on my scan and I really like how we are shaping up at the 50dma here. I will be open to playing the DTL that would confirm the WB setup or 18.78$ pivot for a safer & more conservative entry. I have an interest in coal stocks also because the commodity itself is showing constructive action with 3 weeks tight right at the 10wma. this is an interesting group.
UPDATE: Held the UTL & kma’s. Setup is still valid with a lower recent swing high pivot at 18.78$
Alert - 18.78$ + DTL
ABCL
A biotech name that I have a position in, but might give a second entry on a second BORS setup at the stage 1 base breakout support area.
Alert - 10.71$
DLO
A name with strong fundamentals in a potential leading group is trying to breakout from his stage 1 wedge. We tried last week, but came back in to test the 24$ ish support area and found great support. We are trying to breakout again from that wedge, which the recent swing high at 30.73$ would give us confirmation of the WB
Alert - 30.73$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
I really hope that you enjoyed. If you did, please share it so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)
Hey Alex. I just subscribed and need help getting into slack channel. (michalmatecek@yahoo.com)Do you use discord as well?