Good evening folks,
I hope you had an amazing 4th of July and enjoyed some high-quality time with friends and family. Now let’s get ready for another week full of possibilities :)
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
Friday was a solid & constructive day IMO. We pretty much confirmed the bullish scenario I talked about last week.
Reclaimed yesterday’s high @ 1726$ with a clear rejection of the support area
Channel DTL breakout
Close above 5&10 DMA (did not close above 10 though)
Until proven otherwise, this 1698/1713$ support area is holding and we made A HIGHER LOW, which confirms a first step in the right direction.
Now we’ll have to make a breakout of 1783$ to confirm a HIGHER HIGH which would confirm an uptrend price structure.
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above 21dma
Close above 1755$
THEN:
Increase exposure in leading sectors if progressive exposure allows me
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Close below 1698$
THEN:
Defense - close long exposure & open TZA
MARKET BREADTH
VIX That action on Friday was very very telling. We were not able to reclaim 30$ level and got rejected at the DTL. We closed 7% lower right at the UTL from April market rally top. I told this many times yet, if we want to get a real chance at a sustain market rally, we have to break that UTL on the downside.
USD/CAD We rejected hard both DTL & 1.29$ support that flipped resistance. That’s a good sign for equities.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
IBB - Biotechnologies is clearly THE leading group here. We confirmed the BO10PB here with the 119.47$ pivot breakout. Confirming the stage 1 breakout. Leading group, period.
TAN - Solar Still working in that wedge.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
DQ,HRB,LI,JKS,CLR,HP,YMM,PDD,SIGA,MCK,LNTH,WRB,OXY,HRMY,SWAV,EXEL,CALM,SQM,ITCI,WWE,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,DDL,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
DQ,FUTU,JKS,LI,HRB,PDD,YMM,MCK,SIGA,CLR,WRB,LNTH,CALM,HRMY,HP,EVH,EXEL,CNR,ITCI,LNG,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
LI,ABCL,FUTU,GTLB,ELF,DDL,YMM,DQ,SWAV,VCYT,QURE,ZTO,STAA,COTY,JKS,AMC,AMN,MD,RCUS,PDD,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
LNTH,VTNR,CEIX,BORR,PBF,AMR,EGY,NINE,CVI,HDSN,DQ,SIGA,OXY,NEX,SQM,AR,PTEN,JKS,GLNG,ARCH,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
New positions:
CELH - Bought this one in anticipation of the DTL breakout and BORS confirmation. I try to time the entry with the market reversal as this one could get explosive out of this support area IMO. I like the 3 days tight with a higher low Friday with a DTL breakout attempt. Tight SL.
GTLB - Also bought on anticipation as it acted with so much RS Friday. I also liked the higher low right below the entry pivot that we triggered late in the day.
TNA -Bought on the 1713$ pivot retest Friday afternoon
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
UTHR
Another stock that had is stage 1 base breakout a few weeks ago, that had a BORL setup which we broke out on volume and now we are creating a nice BO10PB setup right below the most recent high of 242.52$. If we retake that pivot, we would confirm the setup & continuation.
UPDATE: tightening right under DTL, setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 242.52$
ENPH
Leader in TAN leading sector. That’s a name that I tried to position a couple of times now if you've been following me for a while. We are now at that base top area again and got a nice retest of the 50dma today with a nice reversal of that support area. We are still that larger wedge, but I would be interested to try another entry on last week's pivot of 198.73$. I see an inverted H&S pattern and a series of higher lows working up as well. It
Will probably be my top focus setup tomorrow. Pivot still valid
Alert - 198.73$
CELH
A name that I am watching for a while but we are now making a nice BORS setup at the most recent stage 1 base top area. We tried a first time to breakout last month, but we pulled back to the wedge DTL again last week. We tried again early this week but now testing the level on low volume in a very constructive way.
UPDATE: Nice retest of the 21dma again with a higher low right under DTL that we tried to breakout Friday. Setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 69.91$ or the DTL
HRMY
A biotech name that we had on PT FL at 46.28$ pivot but that I missed. Now we have another chance with the BO10PB setup as we retested the 10dma and found really good support to close almost at the recent swing high. This swing high corresponds to the base top of 52.68$. So if we breakout from that pivot, we get our BO10PB confirmation, but also our classic base breakout.
Alert - 52.68$
ARLP
Strongest Coal name on my scan and I really like how we are shaping up at the 50dma here. I will be open to playing the DTL that would confirm the WB setup or 19.35$ pivot for a safer & more conservative entry. I have an interest for coal stocks also because the commodity itself is showing constructive action with 3 weeks tight right at the 10wma. this is an interesting group.
Alert - 19.35$ + DTL
VIR
Another biotech that is building is stage 1 breakout with very tight action within the resistance area. I like how we make higher lows within the small DTL. Could be an explosive breakout on this one.
Alert - 26.81$
SWAV
Medical stocks with solid fundamentals which is trying a LT WB along with a short-term BORS setup at the support area. We almost confirmed continuation Friday but were not able to close above 199.88$ recent swing high.
Alert - 199.88$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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Hey Alex. Need help getting into slack channel. Was in last week now I can’t access. Any ideas?
Hi Alex
Can you elaborate on the leaders list section. How do you calculate the prime, TA and FA score?
And how to use all the names in the list? Is it a good idea to go through all the names for potential setups?