Good evening folks,
Hope you had a good day too, that was personally one of my best this year as my TQQQ trade really paid off along with some nice swings in individual names. Can we push higher from here…? Let’s find out!!
Let’s go!!✌️🛡️
MARKET REVIEW
After yesterday's consolidation & 50dma breakout, I wanted to see follow through today, which we had. We started the day with a retest of the 50dma & 12262$ level pre-market, then we pushed higher on good volume (higher than yesterday).
We found good resistance at the 12454$ level all afternoon but managed to close barely above it.
I am still playing the rally but reduced my exposure a bit EOD as we just had 2 legs up and begin to put our head into some pretty big resistance. I will wait for the first reaction (when? I don’t know) to see how the bulls step in to defend the rally and then I will increase my exposure aggressively.
Remember that we are in a bear market, and we are playing a rally, which means the market can roll over anytime despite the good action we are seeing right now. 🛡️
📈 scenario:
We are now in my bullish scenario until further red flags or consolidation
IF:
THEN:
📉 scenario:
I give some leeway to the market to consolidate in a healthy manner before switching to a bearish scenario. Remember, the market & stocks don’t move in straight lines. We have a rally, watch how we react on the pullback and especially on the kma’s retest.
IF:
CLOSE below 12168$
CLOSE below 50dma
THEN:
Close TQQQ & defense
Alex’s digest:
Let’s look high level at the (+) & (-) of where we stand with today’s action
Mixed signals of breakout & squats today in leading names (=)
NQ closed RETESTED 50dma & resistance area (+)
NQ has some big resistance area overhead, but still, some room to go (=)
XBI (biotech) leading sector tried to confirm BO10PB/BORS setup today but closed right at the pivot (+)
Market breadth is still improving (NNH,>50dma, etc) (+)
Speculative money found supply but held important levels (Crypto) (=)
USD & VIX are drifting down (+)
2Y & 10Y bond yield seems to want higher, which would put pressure on growth stocks (-)
OK amount of setups tonight (=)
Crude oil (CL_F) getting strong & finding support (-)
Mixed bag tonight. The market could come into pressure, but I’ll play this rally until (-) really overwhelmed this section.
MARKET BREADTH
Breath continued to improve today with yet another 1000+ NET A/D and another day with NNH on NYSE & ALMOST on NDX.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma) - breakout continue with another 12% push today to close at 57%…we are seeing good underneath action.
VIX - We broke down from the 24.33$ level! This was the level I wanted to see a break to get more confidence in this rally. Now I think we are good for a decent move above.
USD/CAD - No real buying at the 50dma today, we stay in the support area for now.
HYG/IEI - Continued lower in the support area and we got a spike in volume today. Let’s see if we can continue down or find some more support here.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Now a big week on the economic news.
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
The 2 sectors that we follow for a few days/weeks now are showing that they lead the market right now. SMH & XBI are showing positive action at crucial spots.
(SMH) Semis - Semis tested back the 50dma too and closed above our resistance area, so we can now flip to potential support! I am very interested to participate in this sector as this is clearly the leading sector with XBI right now. I will try to play a potential BORS setup in semis like XBI just did in the last few days. Notice the volume increase too today.
(TAN) Solar Wedge breakout! Let’s see if we can find enough strength to push through that big resistance area and recent swing pivots.
(XBI) Biotech Tried to breakout from that bae top pivot but closed right on it as we saw some squatting today. Setup is still very well valid and I am now playing this leading sector with a position in LABU (3x ETF). Let’s see if tomorrow we can reclaim that pivot and push for the breakout.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
AMR,CELH,RRC,QURE,AR,INSW,LNTH,DVAX,HIMS,CNK,TH,TELL,BEAM,PAYO,CHK,VET,ON,CAN,OXY,AHT,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,NFE,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,METC,HCC,PXD,CAN,MXL,GSL,HST,HUT,HP,CF,SHO,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
TH,QURE,AMR,CELH,RRC,INSW,LNTH,AR,TELL,HIMS,BEAM,CNK,DVAX,PAYO,AHT,CPNG,VET,ENPH,CHK,AGEN,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
TH,IS,BEAM,SRRK,AHT,SI,RIOT,HUT,AFRM,COIN,ZLAB,CPNG,TSP,AMC,PAYO,QURE,CAN,CNK,SGRY,HIMS,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
SIGA,TH,YMM,CD,DQ,BEAM,STKL,LI,DVAX,PDD,QURE,CELH,BKSY,ENPH,AHCO,PLAB,VIR,AGEN,HRB,ELF,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
TH,LNTH,CEIX,VTNR,SIGA,AMR,HDSN,AR,NFE,PRCT,EQT,OXY,CELH,STKL,HRB,ENPH,SD,CRK,GLNG,DQ,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
STKL
I really love the big push this one had following the last ER and based for a few weeks which we breakout 2w ago on good volume. We are now consolidating and creating a nice BO10PB setup which we tried to confirm but came back in. I will use the recent swing high to confirm the pattern completion.
Alert - 9.41$
HALO
Another interesting biotech name that we had in this FL for a while but is now setting up again with this base breakout level retest. We are creating my BORS setup right now and I will be looking at 50.40$ recent swing high pivot first for an entry. We might need a couple of days of consolidation at these levels or we can shoot higher as we did 2w ago.
UPDATE: Pushed a bit higher and triggered the first entry pivot, I am still looking at the second @ 51.14$ I highlighted last night.
Alert - 51.14$
EVH
A healthcare stock that showed great RS in the recent week and had a good pullback that shook a lot of ppl out last week. We are now seeing a retest of the breakout & DTL area and still within the wedge. I would look at the 33.15$ recent swing high for the entry pivot.
Alert - 33.15$
SIGA
A more speculative name that had a big climatic move a few months ago just consolidated in a very nice VCP pattern above the 21dma and made higher lows in the entire base. This one has been on my top RS list for a while and I think right now we are ready to push higher if taking off the 15$ recent WB breakout high. Look how we are getting squeezed volume really dried up in recent days.
🎖️ High conviction trade for me tomorrow.
Alert - 15.00$
CEIX
I am looking closely at the Coal sector as the commodity is setting up for one hell of a potential breakout IMO.
I am looking at CEIX which shows more liquidity & RS than ARLP lately. I am now seeing a retest of the DTL, to create my WBPB technical setup. I will be looking at WB breakout candle high for a confirmation of the setup and an entry.
🎖️ High conviction trade for me tomorrow.
Alert - 58.39$
EXEL
Biotech's name setting up nicely and coiling after a 28% leg up off the lows. I like how we are consolidating above the 21dma and I am now looking at the potential WB for an entry.
Alert - 22.11$
LABU
As explained in the sector section, the biotech sector is 1 of the 2 leading sectors right now for me. XBI is setting up with a perfect BO10PB technical setup at an important level, so I want to get involved and get exposure in this sector going forward by opening a long position in the 3X ETF LABU. I will be looking at the recent swing high 9.69$ or the DTL for an entry
We closed below my last night's entry pivot, so I reset my entry for an opportunity to increase the position that I opened today from the lows.
Alert - 9.69$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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