Good evening folks,
We closed another very hard trading month! Congrats to everyone who kept their head above the water. Keep this experience to grow as a trader and tweak your plan based on your mistakes. That’s how we improve!
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
RTY had a pretty rough opening and sold off below our 1698/1713$ support area. We were not able to stay below though and closed the day very strong.
We can now see 2 successive days trying to break down that area, only to find really good buying to close the day in the upper half (ish). I begin to see some signs of a potential reversal here, there are at least some clues pointing in that direction.
Along with this action in the indices, today we saw some individual names in leading sectors holding very important levels, which is giving me a bit more clues about the market showing internal strength.
We are still in a clear downtrend, below all kma’s, so we have to think defense first and try this scenario light and increase exposure as we get potential confirmation.
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Reclaimed today’s high @ 1726$ with a clear rejection of the support area
Channel DTL breakout
Close above 5&10 DMA
THEN:
Increase exposure in leading sectors if progressive exposure allows me
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Close below 1698$
THEN:
Defense
MARKET BREADTH
VIX Breakout of that DTL at the open but was not able to reclaim that 30$ level. We’ll have to confirm tomorrow if we get a reversal here, or we were just retesting the DTL today and shooting higher tomorrow. In which case this would not be a good sign. To have a true & meaningful rally, we’ll have to break down that UTL from April.
USD/CAD Rejection of the 1.29$ base top that we were trying to confirm a BORL setup today.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
IBB - Biotechnologies is clearly THE leading group here. We were able to hold the 10dma from that false breakout move yesterday. We’ll have to see if we try another breakout attempt in the next few days. That would make our stage 1 breakout for the group.
TAN - Solar is the other leading group I’m following closely. We found support at the 50dma & UTL today and were able to close above the 21dma. I see a wedge forming and we will see if we can try another breakout attempt at that red area above.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
DQ,JKS,HRB,LNTH,CEIX,LI,MCK,PDD,HP,CALM,YMM,FLNG,HRMY,MPLN,SAVE,EVH,GLNG,EXEL,POST,ARCH,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,DDL,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,MXL,HST,DEN,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
DQ,JKS,HRB,LI,LNTH,CEIX,MCK,PDD,HP,YMM,CALM,HRMY,SAVE,FLNG,MPLN,EVH,EXEL,ARCH,GLNG,SWAV,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
DQ,GTLB,QURE,LI,RCUS,DDL,YMM,SWAV,ELF,SAVE,ABCL,JKS,PDD,ZLAB,BCRX,VNET,COTY,AMN,HRMY,EVH,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
NEX,NINE,VTNR,LNTH,PBF,BORR,CEIX,EGY,AMR,CVI,BTU,OXY,DQ,PTEN,HP,GLNG,SIGA,DK,HDSN,AR,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
New positions:
ABCL - Not bought it on the standard entry pivot I shared, but I decided to test the waters this morning when I saw this name was refusing to sell off from that base top support area. Once the market stopped making a lower low, it broke out of that wedge and that’s where I bought @ 10.13$
LNTH - Bought right at the entry pivot when I got the alert.
Trimmed positions:
Closed positions:
TZA - Covered my short position when we reclaimed 1698$ pivot on volume.
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
ABCL
Another stage 1 base breakout retesting the B/O level creates a very nice BORS setup. The recent swing high pivot would confirm the setup & continuation.
UPDATE: I took this trade this morning on an early entry, but the entry pivot from last night is still above @ 10.71$. Today’s high of 10.95$ can also be used for confirmation.
Alert - 10.71$ OR 10.95$
ENPH
Leader in TAN leading sector. That’s a name that I tried to position a couple of times now if you've been following me for a while. We are now at that base top area again and got a nice retest of the 50dma today with a nice reversal of that support area. We are still that larger wedge, but I would be interested to try another entry on last week's pivot of 198.73$. I see an inverted H&S pattern and a series of higher lows working up as well. It
Will probably be my top focus setup tomorrow.
Alert - 198.73$
VIR
Another one that I got stopped out yest’d but held very well at the 10dma & recent pivot. I will be putting back my alert at 26.81$ where we would confirm the stage 1 base breakout.
UPDATE: Unchanged on the day, setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 26.81$
CELH
A name that I am watching for a while but we are now making a nice BORS setup at the most recent stage 1 base top area. We tried a first time to breakout last month, but we pulled back to the wedge DTL again last week. We tried again early this week but now testing the level on low volume in a very constructive way.
UPDATE: Nice retest of the 21dma and showed a lot of strength today. Setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 69.91$ or the DTL
AMN
Another stage 1 base breakout retesting the B/O level creates a very nice BORS setup. The recent swing high pivot would confirm the setup & continuation
UPDATE: Unchanged on the day, setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 113.71$
GTLB
A name that I got stopped out Monday but set up again right below the most recent swing high pivot of 54.5$. If we could retake that pivot, we would confirm the continuation.
UPDATE: Nice retest of the 10dma, channel breakout, and showed a lot of strength today as we even triggered the entry pivot intraday. Setup & entry pivot still valid.
Alert - 54.5$
UTHR
Another stock that had is stage 1 base breakout a few weeks ago, that had a BORL setup which we broke out on volume and now we are creating a nice BO10PB setup right below the most recent high of 242.52$. If we retake that pivot, we would confirm the setup & continuation.
UPDATE: Unchanged on the day, setup & entry pivot still valid
Alert - 242.52$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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Hi, a question about you´re closure of TZA and more exactly on the volume. I assume you look the RTY1! for voulme, right?
I think it´s very difficult to tell intraday if the volume is high or not. In hindsight can see that the volume in RTY1! goes slightly up arround 5 to 5.15 pm when it reclaimed 1698. Any advice what to look at so I can see it when it happens?