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āļøš”ļø
MARKET REVIEW
Wellā¦the market decided it didnāt want to continue higher and breakout of that resistance area, yet.
We started the day very strong until we reached that very important 13555$ level I was talking about last night. Right at the moment we touched that level, heavy selling began and pretty much for the entire day.
Yes, itās a reversal day and an important level rejection, but Iām not ready to say that the market will roll over here. We still have very strong internals, so right now Iām assuming the market was not ready to push higher and might need a bit of consolidation before retrying that breakout. (If we do)
We are still within striking distance of a 13356$ pivot retake and we are also still above the 5dma and all kmaās. We are still seeing a strong market.
So, one day at a time, I will let price action guide me in which direction the market intends to go next. No need to predict!
What are the levels Iām watching tomorrow?
On the upside, I want first a RECLAIM of 13356$ recent consolidation top pivot. Then, if we get a push higher, I now want to see a breakout of 13555$ to confirm a continuation further above that big resistance area we are eyeing for a while now.
On the downside, I now want to see NQ hold the 13108$ consolidation bottom level we just closed above. Ideally also hold the 10dma.
Weāll be on the lookout for our 10-12% 50dma extension in the next few days/weeks.
We are @ 5.5% right now
BULLISH scenario:
We are now in my bullish scenario until further red flags or consolidation.
IF:
THEN:
BEARISH scenario:
I give some leeway to the market to consolidate in a healthy manner before switching to a bearish scenario. Remember, the market & stocks donāt move in straight lines. We have a rally, watch how we react on the pullback and especially on the kmaās retest.
IF:
CLOSE below 12655$
CLOSE below 50dma
THEN:
Threat this reversal as a potential rollover
MARKET BREADTH
This is quite strong 1M & 52W NNH numbers tbh for such a reversal day. Along Adv/Decl & stock>50 being positive too.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma) - We continued higher here today and approached the first area of resistance I was pointing out last night.
VIX - Tried to spike on this reversal, but was quickly rejected by the 5dma and closed near its low. Weāll have to see, but not the type of VIX action we see on market rollover dayā¦
USD/CAD - Pretty flat day for USD, just taking a breather and waiting for kmaās to catch up. No red flags.
US10Y (US 10Y bond yield) - IMO, thatās what really put pressure on a part of the market today. (growth) I see this move on 10Y yields as a WBPB. We broke from DTL last Friday and retested the DTL & support area yesterday only to rip higher today above the recent swing high. This thing has to find some resistance quickly if we want to see a good market for growth stocks.
HYG/IEI (Credit Spread) - Small gain today, nothing alarming.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin) - Squatted and failed his base breakout todayā¦ Still above all kmaās and we could see a second attempt, letās see if we confirm the move tomorrow or find support quickly.
NG_F (Natural Gas) - Big move as expected on nat gas. Related names acting well as well. We are now at pretty major resistance, so weāll have to be quick on our feet to take profit if we see a rejection of this area in the next few days.
CL_F (Crude Oil) - Shakeout OR BORS? Are we retesting the resistance area and will reverse back down hereā¦or do we reclaim that area and rip higher? The next few days will tellā¦!
ECONOMIC & EARNINGS CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
(SMH) Semis - Was not able to push out of the DTL and closed unchanged. Need time to consolidate.
(TAN) Solar - Found pressure right in that resistance area I was talking about last night. Letās see if we can get support by the 5dma or a retest of 86.01$ pivot before making a second attempt. Notice how we closed below the recent swing high pivot though.
(XBI) Biotech - Found resistance at the base top 95.10$ pivot and with a pretty ugly reversal today back below the 5dma. Weāll have to see if we can find support quickly at the 10dma tomorrow.
Letās look at our 6 other sectors that just broke out of stage 1 bases
(CIBR) Cybersecurity - Failed the recent swing high pivot breakout and closed below it.
(FDN) Internet - Failed the recent swing high pivot breakout and closed below it.
(IGV) Software - Failed the recent swing high pivot breakout and closed below it.
(XME) Metals & Mining - Closed higher, but with a reversal bar.
(XRT) Retail - Failed the recent swing high pivot breakout and closed below it.
(XLF) Financial - Found resistance in a recent pretty important area. It is extended, for now, weāll have to see if we can consolidate in a healthy way before trying that breakout again.
Alexās TAKEAWAYS:
I will give the benefice of the doubt to this market as I donāt see enough red flags despite the market reversal today.
I then treat this as a normal pullback instead of a rollover for now. Levels I watch & my positions will tell me when itās time to get more defensive.
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
CELH,SIGA,TH,AEHR,SWAV,AHT,STEM,ENPH,HIMS,CHPT,EURN,CPRX,STNG,SQM,MRSN,AMC,VET,CEIX,INVZ,CSIQ,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
RES,AMR,MRO,HCC,SQM,DK,ERF,DVAX,MGM,DRH,TELL,LBRT,BHF,ENLC,SWAV,JXN,LC,TRGP,WTI,CAN,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
SIGA,BFLY,CCXI,MRSN,STEM,ENPH,CPRX,AEHR,CELH,HIMS,AMC,AHT,SWAV,SPWR,CLNE,TH,CSIQ,PLUG,RUN,YELL,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
MARA,BFLY,YELL,CORZ,HIVE,AEHR,HUT,RIOT,SIGA,IS,CPRX,LAZR,CCXI,CLNE,STEM,AMRS,FOUR,WTI,NFE,INSW,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
SIGA,BFLY,CCXI,MRSN,AHT,AMC,STEM,HIMS,AEHR,BKSY,TH,RXRX,DVAX,BEAM,ENPH,YELL,CELH,NOVA,AFRM,PLUG,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
SIGA,TH,LNTH,STNG,HDSN,NFE,CRK,CEIX,STKL,PRCT,ENPH,EQT,AR,SWAV,CCXI,CELH,MRSN,DQ,HRB,CPRX,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Tomorrowās game plan:
Especially after todayās reversal, it will be a day tomorrow to see if my current positions can hold their SL or not. I donāt plan to increase exposure aggressively unless the market really rips above NQ=13555$.
Wait & see for me tomorrow at the open.
Alexās FOCUSLIST
RES
As Crude Oil and Oil stocks showed strength today, I want to get a name on my FL in case we are really seeing the shakeout scenario on CL_F. RES just reported STELLAR earnings, in fact, itās the #1 FA score in my model so I am interested in a position if the technicals confirm it.
Not easy to see as itās kinda slugging, but we just had a WB on the PEG, then we retested the kmaās only to create a potential entry pivot with the recent swing high.
Alert - 7.82$
HDSN
A name that I traded out of the DTL earlier this week but didnāt want to hold my position in CPI news. It acted well on the breakout of that area, and we retested that level (BORS) today while staying above the 5dma.
A reclaim of the breakout candle high would confirm continuation.
Alert - 10.04$
ENPH
A TML name that I am watching closely for a few weeks (months?), especially after the earnings to get a chance to re-enter. We are clearly in a consolidation above the base support area and are making higher lows. I am interested to increase my current 1/2 position I have. For adding, I will be looking at a retake of the 305.88$ pivot to add to my current position.
Alert - 305.88$
šļø = Alexās highest conviction setups
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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