Good evening folks,
Hope you had an amazing weekend watching the TraderLion conference ;) These guys are awesome to put such great content out for free. Watch these great traders, and take as much notes as you can to really assimilate the concept they teach & use.
Let’s go!✌️
MARKET REVIEW
Friday was a constructive day overall even if we almost closed unchanged. We pulled back on the employment economic release right at the DTL from the larger wedge I’m looking at. We retested it and we found good support at it to finally close the day green. That also coincided with the kma’s retest.
That’s the kind of action I wanted to see, that confirmed that this WB was meaningful and it was not only a false breakout for now.
Now the very hard part is ahead of us. We have a lot of big overhead supply zone above us… 50dma, recent swing high, and resistance area from past month’s consolidations.
We are still in a downtrend, playing a reaction rally, so keep in mind that this market can roll over any time even if we have good traction on the long side right now.
Bullish scenario:
IF:
Close above the most recent swing high of 12 262$
Close above 50dma (1.3%)
THEN:
Increase exposure in leading sectors if progressive exposure allows me
Bearish scenario:
IF:
Close below channel DTL$
Close below kma’s
THEN:
Defense
MARKET BREADTH
We had again 1M NNH on both NYSE & NDX, now we want to see the same thing on 52W to really confirm the rally. I don’t really like to see negative A/D AGAIN FRIDAY… now we want to see 52W NNH & A/D turn bullish or I’ll have to think defensive again.
VIX The UTL breakout continues and a -5.52% move last Friday is very very positive here. We are approaching the recent swing low pivot @ 24.33, so this might act as potential support here. Overall I want to see a continued trend down to confirm this rally further.
USD/CAD Tried to bounce from the 10dma, got rejected hard, and closed red on the day. This is good.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SECTORS PERFORMANCE
We begin to see some sectors taking the lead while Biotech might be too stretched and tired out of its stage 1 base breakout.
(SMH) Semis will be a sector I’ll watch this week to see if we confirmed the strength we saw last week. We are right below the 21dma which could act as potential resistance, so we’ll have to see if we can break out from it and if not, find support at the recent gap & mid-June low. That would create a higher low and a potential inverted H&S
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders 40/60 (PRIME Score)
DQ,LI,HRMY,STKL,JKS,CELH,DVAX,EVH,LNTH,FLNG,QURE,ENPH,HRB,CALM,HALO,AMPH,SIGA,ACET,ELF,EXEL,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
MRO,AMR,HDSN,ARCH,SQM,OXY,LTHM,PLYA,DDL,METC,HCC,CPG,PXD,MXL,HST,HP,CVI,GSM,CF,SHO,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
DQ,JKS,STKL,EVH,QURE,ACET,HRMY,LI,ENPH,HALO,CELH,CALM,ABCL,HIMS,DVAX,ELF,LNTH,SIGA,AMPH,BCRX,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
AGEN,SRRK,ACET,HIMS,CCCC,QURE,VCYT,CDMO,BEAM,ABCL,CPNG,ME,CFLT,RCUS,JKS,ARWR,DQ,ELF,ZLAB,FGEN,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
LNTH,VTNR,SIGA,CEIX,DQ,NINE,HDSN,JKS,OXY,AMR,EGY,HRB,PBF,SQM,AR,CELH,CVI,GLNG,ARLP,ARCH,
PT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Alex’s FOCUSLIST
AMN
Another healthcare name setting up and retesting a few times the stage 1 base breakout area. I would be interested to enter on the 113.71$ pivot which was the breakout day’s high. If we breakout of this level, we confirm the retest and continuation.
UPDATE: We tried to breakout last Friday but closed right below it. The setup is still valid for me and will replace my alert.
Alert - 113.71$
POST
Working on a nice BO10PB setup on that base-on-base setup at ATH. Not the strongest fundamentals, but this stock is making a new ATH while the market has not bottomed yet, this is a clear signal.
Alert - 84.06$
GTLB
I will look at GTLB for a possible re-entry after taking it off yesterday. I am seeing yest’d action as a retest of the breakout level, creating a nice BORS setup. I will be looking at 60.36$ recent swing high pivot for the setup confirmation.
Be careful this one can move really fast.
UPDATE: Almost retested the breakout level & the 10dma Friday before closing higher than the open, but still red. We are still building pressure nicely below that 60.36$ level.
Alert - 60.36$
FLNG
A natural gas transporter stock setting up nicely above is long-term support area. We were never able to break below it and on the most recent leg down, we created a higher low in the base, which is very positive. We also broke out of the DTL confirming the WB Friday. I will look at the recent swing high pivot for a lower-risk entry than down here.
Alert - 29.08$
EVH
Some biotech names that led the move in the last 2 weeks or so are retesting their breakout level. EVH is one example with is 2 day PB right back to retest the recent B/O level on Friday. We might now be done with that BORS consolidation action, but that’s a name that I want to keep on my radar with the recent swing high pivot as my alert for an entry that would confirm the continuation.
Alert - 34.42$
CAL
CAL tried to breakout after its earning report but went too fast straight to a resistance level. We consolidate for a few weeks now in a clear channel and are now sitting right at the 50dma. That’s the kind of low-volume consolidation I’m looking for right before a major breakout. We could also see a nice cup n’handle in here, with recent consolidation being the handle. The most recent swing high pivot will be my level of interest to initiate a position in anticipation of the base breakout.
Alert - 27.17$
HRMY
Some biotech names that led the move in the last 2 weeks or so are retesting their breakout level. EVH is another example with the last 2 days pullback right at the base breakout level and also it’s 10dma. That’s a leading stock, and I will be looking to enter on my classic BORS setup. We could need a couple more days to consolidate, but leading stocks like that could find buying really fast too.
You’ll see that I’d mark the pivot on a lower timeframe here (65min) as the more meaningful pivot was from the initial thrust on that base breakout. We consolidated for a few hours before trying to breakout and failed.
The 55.15$ pivot is where I’ll put my alert.
Alert - 55.14$
MPLN
This one as been on my radar for quite some time from its stage 1 base breakout but I was not able to hold my position on that deep area retest to the 50dma. We are now in stage 2 uptrend and we are now consolidating in a clear wedge retesting the 21dma. I will use the most recent swing high pivot to place my alert here. Note that this is one of the first stage 1 breakout we saw a few weeks back…worth noting!
Alert - 5.96$
REFERENCES
Articles on my system:
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Hi, thank you so much for this trading letter, it has so much value!
Question about FLNG, why do set the pivot to 29.08 when the stock both made a HH on the 27 and on the 28th?